I don’t believe Putin would ever attack a NATO state, unless DJT winds up back in power. In that event, he takes back all of the former SSRs. This Ukraine invasion has galvanized NATO like nothing has before. I expect a few more like Finland and Sweden to join.
With Biden in the WH, I don’t see Putin going for the Baltics. This would bring about WW III and he knows this.
Did you see that Russia is threatening both if they join? I saw an article on this earlier, though I can’t recall the details. Seems…pretty brash of Putin if it’s true.
I agree. I don’t see this happening, at least not with the US and the rest of NATO doing nothing about it.
I didn’t see that bit about threatening the Finns and Swedes. I’m sadly coming to the conclusion that at some point war between Russia and NATO is inevitable and we aren’t going to survive it.
Even if Russia did threaten that, it’s a hollow threat. Russia has no ability to do anything to Sweden/Finland while its military is all tied up dealing with Ukraine. Best time for the Scandinavians to join NATO; won’t ever be a better chance.
If you are a European right now watching Russia basically invade and conquer Ukraine it might not seem that hollow. I’m not so sure it’s a good time for them to join NATO…they have always really been opposed to such a move (their citizens especially) and really proud of their neutrality through the cold war.
No, I didn’t say that. There’s a vast excluded middle between the two extreme positions you’ve presented.
Putin’s overt, grim threat to Finland and Sweden isn’t new. He has made the exact same threat before. It’s not a hollow threat, but it’s kind of like a guy who has open carry and likes to stand in a way that everyone sees he’s packing heat.
Finland has been neutral and out of NATO (although in very good terms with it), but the overwhelming public POW these past two days has been that they need to join NATO as soon as possible. Putin’s already shown there are no relations with Russia outside military force.
Germany, too belligerent in the 1930s-1940s and now too pacifist in the 2020s. Can’t we have a good medium?
Trump could literally murder a man in front of hundreds of witnesses and not get a two-thirds majority in Congress to vote to convict him.
The cynic in me thinks that one of the reasons NATO won’t intervene directly in Ukraine is because the alliance wants to incentivize NATO membership. If NATO were to intervene on behalf of a non-NATO nation, like Ukraine, it could make Finland and Sweden more ambivalent about joining - “ehhh, NATO will help us out if we are attacked even if we aren’t members.” It would be like Geico paying for your car accident even if you were never a GEICO member.
Unless it happened on January 6th.
It’s all posturing, like two bulls (elk) fighting over a cow. A little blood, some transient pain, and get everything you want when the other guy backs down. This skirmish in Ukraine is just foreplay. If NATO gets shoved into a large scale conventional war for any reason, the nuclear option will not be ignored. Certainly the side about to lose will at least make the suggestion, and that will be enough. Either everybody stands down immediately (like they could all agree on that) or one launch leads to two and then more than enough to take everybody out. It’s inevitable. Other players from both sides would try to take advantage (if NATO/Russa fires a single nuke as a test of the other’s resolve, India will grab Pakistan or the Saudis destroy Israel and all hell breaks loose). You can’t test Mutually Assured Destruction. I’m not MAD in saying that to succeed here is to fail everywhere. So Putin has calculated that NATO can’t do much but posturing and then walk away.
I don’t like the calculation, but I can’t disagree with the math. Anything more than posturing, and there is no one around to tell me I’m wrong.
Invading a sovereign nation isn’t “posturing” or “foreplay”.
In geopolitical terms I think it is still posturing. In global economic terms, Ukraine is not a “big bull”. As long as only one big bull is firing, it’s still just “posturing”. Putin’s calculation is that NATO can do no more than posture back, and he will continue to calculate that NATO will back down even as things escalate step by step.
What is happening to the Ukrainians is beyond tragic, but their lives don’t enter into the geopolitical calculations. What happened before is Crimea was no different - certainly not to the locals. Those lives have never been taken into account in the history of warfare, and they won’t be now. Politically it is still foreplay. For now, it’s the Ukrainians that are fucked. Should Putin’s expansion succeed there, it will continue. I don’t condone that. But I can’t deny the reality of how I see it.
The analogy is meant to be offensive. This is “foreplay” like a punch in the face is “foreplay” for a rapist. Different for the victim, but that’s a matter of perspective. At this point I think the lackluster response by the rest of the world has shown they are already backing down.
It went beyond ‘posturing’ when Russian forces rolled into Ukrainian territory. Not sure why you would think that a full scale invasion was still ‘posturing’…this sounds like China saying that it’s not an ‘invasion’.
Whatever NATO does or doesn’t do, this went beyond posturing days ago. Whether this is a prelude to something more, a direct attack on NATO, which I presume is what you are getting at, it’s not posturing when bullets and missiles start to fly and folks start to die.
You’re looking at it from the perspective of a decent human being (good for you. Personally I agree). As I read the OP, my answer would be from Putin’s perspective.
And of course China would say a military operation to “reintegrate” Taiwan was not an “invasion.” What else would you expect China to say?
No, just the use of the word. I don’t think, at this stage, even Putin would think this is simply posturing anymore. Posturing was what he did before the tanks started to roll and the rockets fly.
No, this is what China is saying about THIS, er, intervention of Ukraine. Chian says calling it an ‘invasion’ is western media spinning the story, blah blah blah. I’m sure they would mouth some bullshit about Taiwan as well, of course.
Putin’s perspective is nonsense, and ISTM he’s making a catastrophic blunder here that could backfire spectacularly. Right now he’s making global heroes out of Ukrainian leaders and fighters, and villains out of himself and his cronies. And it’s not even clear he’s going to win militarily! Even if he does, he could be stuck in Ukraine for months or more fighting a bloodly insurgency. This just looks like terrible decision making that will hurt Putin and Russia (in addition to Ukrainians, quite obviously).
Right- they wouldn’t pour into the Baltics and then get cut off. But I do wonder if they’d attack into Kaliningrad Oblast in order to link up with the Baltics’ militaries and let them engage in a fighting retreat back into Poland, where they’d make a stand and eventually as the US and other NATO countries’ reserves and regular forces were deployed, make a push back into the Baltics, probably through Belarus (sucks to be them, but they’re Putin’s butt-boy so tough titty).
Yeah, I agree. I’m not seeing the genius or brilliant part in any of this. It looks to me to be a cluster fuck regardless of the outcome, from a Russian perspective. Even if they win…for whatever definition of that Putin expects…it’s going to hurt Russia going forward. Especially if the Ukrainians put up a fight…which they are doing. If Putin crushes them, then he and Russia looks bad and has a lot of folks pissed off and scared by Russia. If he wins but it costs Russia a lot, then he loses. If Ukraine wins, well…Russia looks even worse. Not only are they brutal invaders, but they are incompetent brutal invaders. In either case, Putin et al could go down for this, or if not that then it could make holding onto power even tougher.