For pretty much the last week, all the weather websites have been predicting rain all day every day (Chicago area). Yet everyday I wake up and it’s bright and sunny outside. We finally got some sprinkles yesterday, but only for a couple hours. Now, I’m not talking about forecasts five days away, I’m talking about forecasts just a half day away.
Even last night, it said it would storm all day today. Then this morning it said it would storm for a couple hours in the early afternoon. Not it looks like just a short storm this evening (if that happens).
So whats the deal? I know the weather is never exact, but it’s been six days of completely wrong predictions.
Most weather forecasts cover a fairly large area. It might be that it was storming all this time elsewhere in the city, but you just happen to be in a calm patch. Distance from the lake probably has a lot to do with this.
Is it just that channel’s weatherperson or do certain seasons provide more variability and a challenge than others?
I usually can’t get over how amazingly accurate our forecasts are regarding the temps and the timing and amount of rainfall. Usually we can 'bout bank on the forecast.
Yes, this is the biggest reason. A rain symbol just means high probability of rain. Also, weather is chaotic. The winds only have to change a little and a storm front can go right past you. Small local changes can greatly affect what you experience, without changing the weather for a region much.
I live in SC, but I noticed that a Cub game at Wrigley Field was delayed for 90 minutes due to rain one day last week, so, yes, it did rain at least in part of Chicago last week. I’ve also noticed that the weather charts have some some heavy rains in a path just south of Chicago. Looks like areas from Peoria to Indianapolis have had some heavy rains recently, and some of those rains were straying northward.
I wish they would stray south and head here. We’re about 10 inches low for the year with record-breaking heat.
I remember hearing a weatherman talking once about the good old days of weather forecasting. He and the other two weathermen for the TV (maybe radio?) station would get together and talk about what they saw in the reports they had. If two of them thought it was going to rain and one didn’t, that was a 66% chance of rain.
The weather forecasts themselves are surprisingly accurate it’s the interpretation of them that’s tricky. When their models forecast a 30% chance of rain, we do tend to get rain roughly 30% of the time. The trick is turning an entire days worth of statistics into a symbol. Assuming a 40% chance of rain all day means that the best that you can hope for is being right 60% of the time. Considering that within a day the chance of rain might fluctuate from 30-80% makes deciding whether to pick the cloudy or the rainy symbol for the entire day pretty difficult.