Any dopers with Russian experience? Anyone know how they view us these days?
Just curious as to the relevance vis a vis current affairs.
Good question. They Hold the trump card at the moment because of being a net exporter of oil and having us by the balls until at least 2015 for a ride to the ISS.
I don’t think we will ever be allies but I think we cooperate and respect each other enough that we won’t become enemies again.
Plus China is giving the Russians plenty to worry about.
I have some Russian experience, a BA in Russian studies, MA international relations with certificate in E. European studies, I studied for two semesters in Moscow and lived in Siberia for a year. Having said all that, I haven’t worked in that region for about 7 years.
In general the US has made the mistake of thinking Russians were more like Americans than they are. Russians are not just Americans with fur hats. The average Russian clearly values stability over democracy or a free press. As a nation, they are comfortable with a greater amount of autocracy than the US naively believed.
Russia has transitioned itself from a reactive and defensive crouch that it held for much of the 1990s, into a more forward leaning foreign policy. This has naturally created tensions with the US, for example, Russia is willing to work with Iran in ways that are at odds with US policy for the region. That doesn’t mean that outright conflict is coming, only that Russia sees its interests as sometimes at odds with US interests and it is willing to risk some level of conflict to pursue those interests.
Russia also seems to pretty clearly be positioning itself for a post-American world with multiple actors competing for influence in differing spheres while US influence is dimishing in many theaters. Ultimately, Russia will likely have to prepare for more conflct with China, but right now it is no position to do so.
Actually, they formed an alliance in 2001.
What’s disappointing is that neither McCain nor Obama is saying much of anything about the poor state of U.S.-Russian relations. And it’s an important issue.
The US has been making that mistake with Russia/USSR since before World War II, and in general, with the world at large.
You provide an astute analysis; the Russians view security from foriegn influence or invasion as the primary goal, a fact grossly misinterpreted by the United States during the Cold War.
Stranger
Doesn’t mean much. They formed an alliance after WWII that didn’t work out so well (see: Russo-Sino split.)
We have been pissing off Russia, for no good reason. Putin told us he didn’t want NATO extended-we went ahead and did it. Russia and the USA share many common interests, and it makes no sense to provoke them. I fear MCCain will try to push Medvedev around-a policy with no upside and quite a few downsides.
And that US-proposed missle defense system that would include installations in places like the Czech Republic makes the Russian plenty antsy too.
Why should Putin decide if Poland or Romania can join NATO? If they apply, and they qualify, why shouldn’t they be allowed to join?
I don’t understand why Russia seems to think it has much say in this at ALL. Now, if they wanted to create their own purely military defense pact, and offer it to other nations, I would have no problem with that, but for them to say that a free and independant nation cannot manage their own affairs is foolish, and makes them seem like a bully.
I’m pretty sure Eastern Europe is tired of knuckling under to the Russian bully.
Nor have a lot of Russians.
I’m told, and I can’t vouch for this but it seems reasoable, that Russians as a group tend to view the U.S. of A. as a hostile power that’s trying to “hold down Russia” or whatever. This is not the case (America hardly gives two dollars for the whole country and would largely not care if it vanished from the earth tommorow), but it helps their self-esteem to think that we’re always trying to mess with them. I guess they miss the “good old days” of the Cold War.
Well, what other purpose is served by the expansion – or, for that matter, the continued existence – of NATO? It’s not the sort of organization that can effectively fight Islamist terrorism.
I’d argue that there is a purpose. Diplomatic connections, overflight rights, wink and a nod for special operations. But what do I know…
Doug
Why should only the threat from Islamic terrorism be considered?
Except that NATO has always been a defensive pact anyhow. In the modern era, we do want to pull the formerly subjugated Eastern European nations more towards our orbit, but pound for pound we don’t care about Russia; we just want Poland et all to be be and remain free and independant. Russia doesn’t.
It is the sort of organization that can tamp down potential conflict between the smaller regional actors, including within the organization. The Baltic region, for example, is much more stable since NATO expansion into the area. That actually is something that Russia benefits from as well. Significantly. A region that is at low risk of military conflict is a region prime for influencing with the “soft power” of oil and an natural gas deals. As a case in point look at the emerging relationship between Russia and Germany.
I think the anti-Americanism ("Those Americans want to hold us down!) is rhetoric for public consumption. They see that the period of American hegemony was quickly squandered by the recent administration and that America’s power to influence world events is much diminished on the other side. They have oil. They have natural gas. Global Climate Change will only help them as it both makes oil and natural gas exploitation in the arctic easier and extends their growing seasons (even as it diminishes agricultural capacity in most of the developing world). America is just a good rallying point to help justify the need for authoritarianism - much as BushCo has used fear of terrorism to justify relatively much more tepid measures.
We had a chance to encourage true democratization there, a window of opportunity. That window is closed now. Putin, and those who will follow in his mold, have an iron grip and until oil is made irrelevant by emerging technologies Russia’s influence will grow. This is the path: more power for Russia, for China, for India. The EU trying to hold its own and the US losing power. The only hope is for the US to become skilled at managing relationships and in the fashion of the much maligned Kissinger use their mutual distrust of each other to our advantage.
But defensive against whom, now?
Russia, Islamist terrorism – I can’t think of a third option for what NATO, as a military alliance, might serve to defend against in this day and age. Can you? And Islamist terrorism, we should have learned by now, is not a military problem and cannot be dealt with by military means.
Anybody. Threats are always emerging. Russia yesterday, Iran today, who knows tommorow?
That said, I’m not terribly interested in much more expansion of NATO. Eastern Europe has good cultural reasons for being in. But Central Asia or North Africa, not so much. If Russia ever wises up, I wouldn’t even mind if they wanted in.