President Bush just announced he’s sending troops in to deliver aid.
Bush says it’s strictly humanitarian aid, but the Navy and Airforce are the ones carrying it in. I’m sure they’re the fastest means, but I can only hope that Bush is not stupid enough to be trying to pull a fast one.
ETA: added link
Did they? Why? They were being attacked by S. Ossetian paramilitaries. Doesn’t the Georgian government have the right to put down rebellion within its borders?
Oh, god, mswas is a much better source for this than I am. If you go back to some of the articles she has referenced earlier in the thread, I think you’ll see what I’m talking about.
But at base, S. Ossetia was a totally autonomous region (at least, wrt Georgia), with Russian troops permanently stationed there as so-called peacekeepers. Whether legally part of Georgia or not, only a third of its population self-identifies as Georgian. Yes, they were doing some provoking of their own. But Georgia went in with guns blazing, not only attacking S. Ossetia (and mostly civilian targets, because as I understand it, S. Ossetia doesn’t have much of a military of its own), but Russian troops. They did this figuring either they could sort of sneak it by Russia during the Olympics, or that NATO would bale them out if they got into trouble. The problem is, Russia was all ready and waiting for them to do this, locked and loaded. And NATO was neither expecting this, nor ready or able to do a damned thing, and there’s not much to indicate that NATO would have been willing even had we had the resources. Possibly the US, possibly not. But the US, being tied up on two fronts, really can’t afford to go ‘toe to toe with the Russkis.’ We also want Russia’s help in making sure Iran doesn’t get a nuke, although it doesn’t look like we’re going to get it. Europe needs Russian oil and natural gas, or Aberzaijan’s. Unfortunately, a lot of that latter goes through pipelines in Georgia that Russia has just destroyed. Surprise! So Europe is scared of pissing off Russia, aside from the little matter of Russia being right there and having lots of tanks and stuff.
mswas, is that a decent summary?
Seems fairly adequate to me. Wasn’t there some assault on Abkhazia too? My info on this is pretty fresh also. I just spent the last few days reading almost every article and post that came my way. I don’t pretend to be an expert, but your description is pretty well in line with what I have been led to understand.
Basically there is one pipeline in Southern Georgia that is the ONLY line not controlled by Arabs or Russians. I think that’s the main significance toward European energy supplies.
Map of Georgia with relevant pipeline
Ultimately the idea that Georgia had the right to put down a rebellion in S. Ossetia seems to be the point of contention.
Yeah, after defending South Ossetia by tossing Georgia out and extensively bombing Georgian cities unrelated to S. Ossetia, Russia apparently decided to further defend it by pre-emptively invading the other potential breakaway area of Abkhazia, in case Georgia hadn’t fully gotten the message that Russia could beat the crap out of them with one hand tied behind its back. For a while it appeared that they would end the lesson by moving onward to the capital Tblisi and swallowing Georgia entirely, but now they have agreed to withdraw to the pre 8/6 fighting positions. The only problem is that apparently neither they nor Georgia seem to be respecting the cease-fire, or so each nation claims about the other, while each claims itself to be pure as the driven snow, of course.
I believe that pipeline is the one that the Russians quite deliberately hit in several places yesterday or the day before, but I could be wrong.
ETA: quite, not quiet
Yes, that’s the one, but I heard that it wasn’t actually hit, but hit near.
There’s a good reason not to destroy it. That pipline goes directly to the same source as the pipeline in Russia. They could piss of
Azerbaijan in the process who in turn could cut them off.
Russia’s worried about pissing off Azerbaijan, who could cut them off? I thought Russia had its own oil.
It’s flowing through a Russian port. There isn’t a huge gain for Russia to piss off Europe and scare small countries. There’s a reason why former Russian territories want the protection of NATO. They’re scared of being invaded by their former overlords.
But S. Ossetia was only an autonomous region in the first place was because the Russians forced the Georgians to concede that. Remember how Russia was backing South Ossetian seperatists back in 1992? And this current thing started because the South Ossetian millitia was shooting at Georgian troops.
OK, Magiver, I’m not following you at all.
a) At what point is that pipeline going through a Russian port?
b) If Russia didn’t destroy that pipeline, they came pretty darned close - close enough to imply that they weren’t exactly making sure they missed it.
c) Russia just did piss off Europe and scare small countries.
Yes, but the fact is, that was sixteen years ago. Since then, S. Ossetia has been autonomous. Georgia has no innate right to the place, and it’s not like it’s inhabited by an overwhelmingly Georgian population begging to be part of Georgia again. It’s about one third Georgian, one third Ossetian (the other half of Ossetia is North Ossetia, which is part of Russia), and one third Russian/other. But above all, it was stupid because they attacked Russian troops and S. Ossetian civilians. Yes, S. Ossetian paramilitaries attacked them. Doesn’t matter. They attacked S. Ossetian civilians and Russian troops. That was all the excuse Russia had been waiting for, and apparently they had been waiting quite successfully and preparedly. They came ramming down on the Georgian troops with all the frustrated ire of a country who got essentially laughed out of existence in 1992. And there was very little Georgia could do about it, and nothing NATO could or would do about it, and that’s where Georgia really misplaced its faith.
ETA: Cleanup
Yet another informative article from a rather surprising source:
Rattling the Cage: Sympathy for the aggressor
– bolding mine. More at source.
While I am not as radical in my conclusions as this particular writer, I can’t help but noticed just how lightening fast the Cold War tinted glasses have come out in the near monolithic Western MSM coverage since the beginning of this conflict.
In fact, I think Oy! did a bang-up job giving a Reader’s Digest, even-handed version of events so far – and also showing how important having an open-mind is. From Sam Stone’s hardcore personal cheerleader to a certain Faux News reject.
Well done My Lady!
Which only leads me to conclude that sanity is not all gone.
Cheers!
Please, let’s inject some reality here. In a rebel enclave you are always going to have some degree of hostility – but I’d like for a reputable cite confirming that it was the Ossetian militia, in some sort of extra-hostile behavior that provoked Saak’s opening and murderous rampage.
I can tell you beforehand: you won’t find one. Reputable that is.
You need a better map says me. to see what be in the world to see. (hey, I posted this map twice already)
And yes, they’re pissing off Europe and scaring little countries. My point that it wasn’t in their best interest. Europe isn’t going to attack them.
The place has been part of Georgia since the early middle ages. It’s been part of Georgia since before the Ossetians got there. So they have as much right to the place as anybody else. Should the fact that anti-Georgian South Ossetians have been able to have a Russian puppet government in control of the place for the past 16 years ago trump Georgia’s territorial integrity?
At this point the fact that Russia is about a million times bigger than Georgia and has troops there trumps Georgia’s territorial integrity.
If Georgia wanted S. Ossetia back, diplomacy was the correct route, not storming in with troops. It was a dumb move. Not saying there wasn’t anything understandable about it. Just that all in all, it was dumb.
BTW, Cap Amazing (America?) you keep asserting that this was an “in-house” operation by the Georgian Forces, thus it was a Russian invasion.
But it simply is not quite that simple if you read-up on the lead-up circumstances.
Misreading Ossetia – Chronology Matters
1-
2-Here’s the official stance of your own Government and the mutual respect both sides should hold for each other:
The United States and the South Ossetian Conflict
**
<blush> curtsey. If you bang me over the head enough, I eventually learn. I still think we need to find a way of sending Russia a message not to do it again.
Magiver, that’s a great map. But I’m still not seeing how the pipeline that goes from Baku to Novorossiysk relates to the pipelines that go from Baku to Tblisi, Supsa, Ardahan, etc., except that they all start at Baku, which Russia wasn’t bombing.
Unless you’re saying that both are pipelines that control exports from Aberzaijan, and thus bombing the pipeline is taking a risk of cutting off one source of Russian imported oil, because Aberzaijan might get pissed at Russia for bombing their pipeline? I would think that the fact that they bombed close to it would pretty much have taken care of that.
I think that, like the USSR, Russia doesn’t always act in what appears, to our eyes, to be its own self-interest. That doesn’t mean it isn’t. It just means that its perception of its self-interest is different from our perception of its self-interest. And vice versa, which is one of the things that made the Cold War so dangerous. We can’t necessarily predict how they’ll act, because we don’t fully ‘get’ them. Again, I look to a President Obama to help fix that, the problem being that while we will be rid of Bush, they will not be rid of Putin.
To me, trying to find the hero and the villain here is nothing but masturbation. The fact is, it’s a political issue about power. Russia has unapologetically flexed it’s muscles. In the 21st century we do not like the idea of nations being so aggressive. It offends our western sensibilities. Yet, we cannot escape from history. This is history, this is reality, this is the way all of our nations have been forged.
Russia may very well want to go expansionist in the near future. Putin may very well be making moves. I’m not ok with that. I don’t want Russia to win, but at this point they’ve captured a resource square and we’re simply not in a position to do anything about it.
I think the pressure on Belarus is probably the most significant window into what’s going on. It shows an expansionist plan that is in place and has been well thought out. We’ll see if Belarus adopts the Ruble. Saakashvili may very well be out, and a slighted Georgia may see the way the wind is blowing and go more pro-Russia. Russia has a great deal of influence over Europe at this point and shows little fear of making moves that are not profitable in the short-term in order to make gains in real power, as opposed to currency that once spent is gone.
I think the 21st century will resemble the 19th more than it will resemble the 20th. A Fascist Russia may very well be ascendant. From what I am hearing a serious Nationalism in the face of Russia’s humiliation during the 90s and it’s impending Demographic implosion, is on the rise.