http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080810/ap_on_re_eu/ukraine_russia_georgia
Ukraine says it reserves right to bar Russian navy
Once again, I find myself in stunned agreement with Sam Stone. Fast tracked membership in Nato would seem to me in my admitted ignorance to be the best first step to take here.
Yes, but it might not help the provinces seized. I tend to agree as well. Though will the other members of NATO?
That I do not know, and since they have a great deal more to lose than we do, I’m greatly afraid they will not.
Has it occurred to you that hegemony over their “near abroad” is something we can well afford to let the Russians have? Global hegemony is no longer on the table, it’s hard to imagine a future in which Russian will stick their noses into Third-World politics the way both sides did in the Cold War.
How would this not lead to a military confrontation? Russian troops are already in Georgia. If NATO admitted Georgia how would it not be obligated to force those troops out?
So let them run roughshod over Georgia and Ukraine, because, what the hell, they’ll stop within the borders of the old USSR?
Why wouldn’t they? The Warsaw Pact nations are too rich now, and too clearly within the NATO orbit, to be viable targets for aggression. So are the Baltic States, for that matter.
Sorry, this wasn’t there when I posted before. South Ossetia may be negotiable, because it sounds like a lot of the people there want to be part of Russia rather than Georgia anyway. I say, bring in UN troops to replace Russian “peacekeepers,” have a referendum, and let South Ossetia decide who they want to be a piece of. But again, this is based on a very loose understanding of the facts.
They probably would. It just seems a little hard on Georgia and Ukraine to just sit back and let them be taken over by gangsters because we couldn’t be bothered to bring economic pressure on Russia to make them stop.
If they did that, they’d fall for the same reason they did last time. They can’t afford it.
What, if Russia runs roughshod over Ukraine and Georgia? It took over seventy years for the USSR to fall, and conditions were much worse economically and politically for the people. What I’m understanding here is that Russia is saying to Georgia “you’re going to do business strictly with us.” Gangster economics/politics. There won’t be anything to fall. How do you topple a plutocracy (thanks for the word :D)? If worse comes to worst, they’ll just fly off to Rio or Dubai or the Caymans.
Well if they fly off to Dubai, Rio or the Caymans they lose their empires. So even if they are rich in exile, they are rich in a weakened state. As I understand it, Russia just doesn’t have the power that the Soviet Union had. The Soviet Union operated based on a forced labor principle that doesn’t work in quite the same way under a plutocracy. They don’t have fanatical glorious workers ensuring that the peasants remain loyal and motivated. They are maintaining a creaking military, and a lot of their engineers have expatriated. Plutocracy generally concentrates the power in the hands of a few, thus making it so that the many have no reason to contribute past a certain point. There simply is a lack of incentive.
I don’t think they ever did have many in the way of fanatical glorious workers except in their own propaganda. What they have now comes closer to what we had here in the latter 19th century. Actually, that makes it a ripe climate for Marxism, except that they’ve been there, done that, and don’t much care for the T-shirt. But, that doesn’t keep them from being either powerful or potentially expansionist. They have a lot of resources and a lot of people. It doesn’t matter if they are working at top efficiency - they sure as hell weren’t in the communist days, and they still did very well, thank you very much. We sure as hell were scared of them, and with good reason to some extent. Their tanks were a hell of a lot better than ours in WWII, and our subs were never as fast as theirs. They made it into space before we did.
I was no commie-hater, and by 1970, I thought the cold warriors were ridiculous. But I think Georgia and Ukraine should be able to make trade agreements and alliances without interference from their neighbors. I also think Cuba, Mexico, and Canada should be able to as well, btw.
NATO can’t and won’t admit Georgia as long as they have an ongoing conflict. This was part of the strategy for Russian military action against Georgia. Putin even said as much when Georgia and Ukraine were seeking NATO membership on the most recent round of conferences, namely that Russia would continue to support militarily the secessionist movements within Georgia so long as Georgia continued to seek Western support.
And hegemony over Russia’s neighbors is not something we can afford to let Russia have, no more than we allowed Iraq to have hegemony over Kuwait. I’m undecided as far as what needs to be done, but something indeed should be. Russia has been setting up this particular conflict for quite some time, and to argue that it was a natural reaction to “Georgian” aggression is laughable. Russia orchestrated the scenario in which they would appear to have justification for involvement, but it doesn’t make it a legitimate justification.
Russia has some very strategic interests in keeping Georgia embroiled in conflict, and NATO is least amongst them.
I wonder if we could negotiate with Georgia - let South Ossetia go (since they seem to want to anyway - and Russia has got it anyway), and you get into NATO immediately.
It’s not an issue of negotiating with Georgia, it’s an issue of negotiating with Russia. Russia is attempting to seize Georgia’s main cities, what does that have to do with protecting South Ossetia anymore?
ETA: Georgia has already said they’re willing to withdraw, but the Russians are still fighting. Meanwhile, they accuse the Georgians of continuing aggression.
Further, don’t make the mistake of thinking this is just about South Ossetia to the Russians. I believe that they very seriously want to take over the entire nation of Georgia if at all possible.
Cite?
It’s currently the lead story on NY Times.
Oh, may many blasphemous camels butt the left hips of their mothers-in-law!
I figured that DSeid’s post #43 meant that things were settling down for now. But Time Magazine and CNN are not only saying that Russia is continuing to fire on Georgia, but they are blaming Georgia as much for the situation as Russia!