Is Russia determined to be an empire again?

[ladyfoxfyre]

@Oy!

Well, apparently Europe didn’t piss off Russia, because Russia isn’t attacking Europe. As I tried to say, it’s a hell of a big bet for me to advocate with someone else’s security. I guess I can’t blame the rest of NATO for not going along, but I really hope that now that they’ve seen this, they will change their minds. Unfortunately, I fear that they’ll both blame it on Georgia and be more afraid than they were before.

No, the risk was never that Russia would “attack” Europe. The risk was that if Georgia and Ukraine were admitted, Russia would start spiting the nations that had extensive trade agreements with Russia as punishment. And that Russia would cause problems for Georgia and Ukraine, in retaliation for turning westward instead of relying on Moscow as they had to do historically.

Admittedly, Georgia is also at fault here. They gambled that their continued aggression towards South Ossetia would either be defended by the West if Russia retaliated, or that Russia simply wouldn’t bite back as hard. Russia, after retaking S. Ossetia, went too far in continuing to bomb within Georgia beyond the logical point.

[Oy]

@ladyfoxfyre

No, the risk was never that Russia would “attack” Europe. The risk was that if Georgia and Ukraine were admitted, Russia would start spiting the nations that had extensive trade agreements with Russia as punishment. And that Russia would cause problems for Georgia and Ukraine, in retaliation for turning westward instead of relying on Moscow as they had to do historically.

Admittedly, Georgia is also at fault here. They gambled that their continued aggression towards South Ossetia would either be defended by the West if Russia retaliated, or that Russia simply wouldn’t bite back as hard. Russia, after retaking S. Ossetia, went too far in continuing to bomb within Georgia beyond the logical point.

Can Russia afford to spite the nations that have extensive trade agreements with them? I know that Russia has oil and gas, but Europe isn’t nearly as dependent on that stuff as we are here in the US, there are other sources for oil (Does Russia do its own refining? That’s one of the big oil bottlenecks) and especially gas, and Europe has consumer goods that Russia doesn’t. Obviously China won’t join in any kind of sanctions, but it’s possible that other nations might, and China is not known for its quality goods. The Chinese themselves who have any money, from what I’ve seen on PBS and Ted Koppel’s series on China, buy imports from the US and Europe.

The ship has obviously sailed on their causing problems for Georgia, and it seems clear that denying NATO membership wouldn’t prevent a similar situation in Ukraine.

I’m not sure if the situation in S. Ossetia is aggression or not. From the little I’ve read, IIRC about a third of the population there is ethnic Georgian, a third is ethnic Russian or ‘other’, and a third is ethnic Ossetian. Legally it’s a part of Georgia, although it’s been autonomous for a long time. The president of Georgia apparently was elected partly on a platform of re-asserting control of that area. Personally, I think a referendum would be the best solution, and I don’t think sending troops in was wise on the part of Georgia, but I’m having trouble labelling the sending of troops to part of your own country as aggression. But then, I don’t know a darned thing about the history of the area.

[ladyfoxfyre]

@Oy!

Can Russia afford to spite the nations that have extensive trade agreements with them? I know that Russia has oil and gas, but Europe isn’t nearly as dependent on that stuff as we are here in the US, there are other sources for oil.

Well, whether they can afford to do it or not, they do anyway. Russia doesn’t historically have a problem with irritating some of its best fuel customers, (GB and Ukraine, for instance). When Russia feels slighted, they sort of forsake all else. It’s a weird national mentality, but it’s the way they do business.
It’s less like Russia courts potential customers and tries not to alienate them, and more like they feel that they have a stranglehold on the market and dictate when, where, how, and why their customers will purchase their product. And if the customers don’t like it, we’ll just cut you off and see how you like that.
It’s kind of hard to explain, but if you read much Russian news you can start to put a finger on it.

[Oy]

Oh, it’s beginning to come back to me. The fact that during the cold war, we truly could not figure out what they were thinking and they couldn’t figure out what we were thinking, because we both worked with such different mindsets. Well, you’d think it would be easier now; we certainly have our share of robber barons. Of course, they’re not coming out of a tradition of dictatorship, the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, and that does make a bit of a difference, doesn’t it?

[DSeid]

Boy. Yes, I had hope that as Georgia effectively conceded South Ossetia to Russia that the conflict would simmer down. A few more Russian lobs for good measure I thought. I underestimated Russia’s current bravado. They are overtly going for control of Georgia and its pipelines.

Who is threatened most by these escapades, besides Georgia of course? The EU. Russia will end up with a stranglehold on the EU’s energy supply. America OTOH is not directly at risk (well its influence is, sure).

So of course the EU is anxious to respond in a forceful and clear way, right? Not.

Sarkozy shared his “profound worry” about the situation and “condemned the escalation of violence,” the statement said. … France currently holds the rotating presidency of the European Union. … Foreign ministers from the 27-member bloc are to meet on the issue next week, the statement said. It did not provide further details, nor gave the date or place of the meeting.

Yeah, we’ll get to it.

[Sam_Stone]

@BrainGlutton

Has it occurred to you that hegemony over their “near abroad” is something we can well afford to let the Russians have?

Isn’t that nice of you to decide that it’s no big deal to turn a strong ally over to the thug on the block.

This is part of what gets me - I heard Bill Richardson today saying that the problem here is that the U.S. doesn’t have enough allies, and this has to be an international effort, and Bush is at fault because he hasn’t built strong allies. Yet he’s opposed to backing the Georgians.

What the hell does he think an ally is? You want to lose your allies? Here’s how to do that - send a message that you like having allies so long as they do what you want, but the minute they wind up in the soup you’ll abandon them. Let them know that your words of mutual cooperation and defense are just words, and that you’ll fold as soon as someone pushes some chips into the pot.

This again is one of the lessons of history - fail your allies, and you’ll soon find that your allies have little use for you. Georgia stepped up to the plate for the U.S. - it has backed just about every U.S. diplomatic and military initiative. Georgia even provided soldiers for Iraq. Now they’re in trouble, and people like Brainglutton and Bill Richardson will look the other way, citing lack of U.S. interests in the region.

Which, by the way, is stupid. It is very much in the U.S.'s interest to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on Europe’s oil supply. With Russia in control of European oil, and Iran building nukes which may threaten middle eastern supplies, we could be in a world of difficulty.

While we’re assigning blame, here’s some for President Bush: What the hell are you still doing in Beijing? He should have been on Air Force One on his way home within hours of major military movement.

I never agreed with the Democratic line that Bush was somehow negligent to spend an extra 10 minutes in a classroom on 9/11. But here it is days after a military invasion of a strong ally, and he can’t even pull himself away from the Olympics?

The cheapest, easiest message of concern the west could have sent would have been for all the western countries to pull their leaders out of the Olympics and deal with the freaking problem from home. And first and foremost, the President of the United States. His staying in Beijing being photographed with beach volleyball players is sending a strong, “we don’t want to make waves” message to Putin, at a time when that may be all he needs to decide to push on into the Georgian heartland. Idiot.

Global hegemony is no longer on the table, it’s hard to imagine a future in which Russian will stick their noses into Third-World politics the way both sides did in the Cold War.

Are you kidding? You don’t think Russia will ever again get to the point where they start interfering with the 3rd world? They’d do it today if they had strong reason to. They already are, in fact: Chavez in Russia for Arms Deals.

[tagos]

Europe is strategically and will be increasingly dependent on Russian energy (half of natural gas and 30% of oil) and the US is relying on Russia to help sort things out with Iran so all anyone can do is wring their hands (and go hell-for-leather for energy independence).

Note also that Georgia is heavily dependent on Russian gas and Russia generally has it by the short and curlies trade-wise.

The Caucasus oil will come through Georgia, making it a strategic area for Russia and the West. I have no doubt Russia intends to get control and the West equally cannot allow Russia total control of energy supplies so it looks like one big mess in the offing.

Although Georgia shares a border with Turkey, this is northern Turkey - very mountainous and with poor communications. Even if NATO wanted it could not easily deploy armed forces.

There is nothing that can be done about the breakaway areas of Georgia. They are gone, it’s a fait accompli.

The question now is how to guarantee Georgian independence given that Russia will not accept them having Nato membership?

Looking at McCain’s response I’d say this is not a time to elect that blustering hot-head. Not if all you have as options are nukes or forcing the Med fleet into the Black Sea. Blustering just makes you look weak.

[DSeid]

Sam OTOH Bush is having direct talks with Putin. What more is to be gained by leaving the Olympics venue? Who does leaving effect most? China not Russia. And China needs to be part of an international consensus against Russian expansionism. That will already be tricky enough.

I also am not sure what the US can do on its own here. The response must be a solid front with the EU. This time Bush is handling it right: giving less bellicose rhetoric a chance before becoming more confrontational. Using the UN to build an international consensus that has a real capacity to take on actions short of war that still make Russia reconsider its current course. (And that can occur even as Russia vetoes a security council resolution against them.)

But the EU needs to step up to the plate. The US can ill afford to get too far ahead of them on this and hot dogging it will be unlikely to convince them to work together on this.

[Wildfire_MM]

Georgia have them selves to thank. Their leader played a high game and lost.

I’s also worth noticing that Georgia participated in the illegal invasion of Iraq and have today the third largest troop in the country.

Why did they take part in the Iraq-invasion? Off course a cynical reason was behind their choice - to lick USAs ass for future gains.

Now they are invaded

[tagos]

@DSeid

Sam OTOH Bush is having direct talks with Putin. What more is to be gained by leaving the Olympics venue? Who does leaving effect most? China not Russia. And China needs to be part of an international consensus against Russian expansionism. That will already be tricky enough.

I also am not sure what the US can do on its own here. The response must be a solid front with the EU. This time Bush is handling it right: giving less bellicose rhetoric a chance before becoming more confrontational. Using the UN to build an international consensus that has a real capacity to take on actions short of war that still make Russia reconsider its current course. (And that can occur even as Russia vetoes a security council resolution against them.)

But the EU needs to step up to the plate. The US can ill afford to get too far ahead of them on this and hot dogging it will be unlikely to convince them to work together on this.

What, practically, can we do? The West has set the precedent for snipping off bits of other countries with Kosovo. If South O wants to unite with North O as an Autonomous Republic in the Russian Federation then why not?

Self-determination and all that.

Georgia recklessly gambled and lost. There are always consequences for such reckless stupidity. As some wag said - ‘don’t punch a bear in the nose unless you are sure it is tied down’.

What plate are you expecting the EU to step up to precisely? The same plate the USA stepped up to regarding 9/11 and Saudi?

We could invade Denmark I suppose.

Georgia has screwed up. The best it can hope for now is that it doesn’t get too much of a beating. The West has few if any cards to play apart from moralising.

[Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party]

What “reckless gamble” did Georgia perform here, exactly? Trying to quell a rebellious region that Russia’s been undermining for years? Siding with the West, wanting to join NATO, to guarantee their independence, as opposed their old oppressors?

The invasion of Georgia didn’t happen in a vacuum. This is but one incident in a long line of bullshit emanating from Russia, and it’s a mistake to think the Russians will stop with Georgia. Any resource rich region’s now at risk from Russian expansionism.

[Oy]

You guys are kidding (WildfireMM** and tagos), right? South Ossetia wasn’t a separate country - it was part of Georgia. And Russia is continuing to bomb Georgia even though Georgia has stopped fighting and effectively said that S. Ossetia was negotiable. And no one is really trying to even hide the fact that basically this is because Georgia wanted to join NATO.

So Georgia deserves what it gets because it sent a few hundred troops to Iraq? Because the US tried to prevent “ethnic cleansing” in Kosovo, this justifies Russia bombing the shit out of Georgian cities nowhere near S. Ossetia?

You puzzle me.

[tagos]

@Capt. Ridley's Shooting Party

What “reckless gamble” did Georgia perform here, exactly? Trying to quell a rebellious region that Russia’s been undermining for years? Siding with the West, wanting to join NATO, to guarantee their independence, as opposed their old oppressors?

The invasion of Georgia didn’t happen in a vacuum. This is but one incident in a long line of bullshit emanating from Russia, and it’s a mistake to think the Russians will stop with Georgia. Any resource rich region’s now at risk from Russian expansionism.

Attacking a city with Russian ‘peacekeepers’ when your army consists of 17.500 troops and your airforce consists of 6 support aircraft and even then not sealing off the tunnel through which the armoured division in north osetta poured though. Sounds pretty bloody reckless to me.

And as for SO being part of Georgia - it hasn’t been since 1992 - a hell of a lot longer than Kosovo was de-facto independent of Serbia.

The Caucuses are full of ethnic/state mismatches and if a people don’t want to remain in some historically accidental state, if south Osetta wants to be an impoverished part of Russia rather than a prosperous part of the EU then let 'em. Particularly as there is nothing we can do.

[tagos]

@Oy!

You guys are kidding (WildfireMM** and tagos), right? South Ossetia wasn’t a separate country - it was part of Georgia. And Russia is continuing to bomb Georgia even though Georgia has stopped fighting and effectively said that S. Ossetia was negotiable. And no one is really trying to even hide the fact that basically this is because Georgia wanted to join NATO.

So Georgia deserves what it gets because it sent a few hundred troops to Iraq? Because the US tried to prevent “ethnic cleansing” in Kosovo, this justifies Russia bombing the shit out of Georgian cities nowhere near S. Ossetia?

You puzzle me.

You tell us what can be done then? Some angry posturing? Some blustering maybe?

[Oy]

@tagos

The Caucuses are full of ethnic/state mismatches and if a people don’t want to remain in some historically accidental state, if south Osetta wants to be an impoverished part of Russia rather than a prosperous part of the EU then let 'em. Particularly as there is nothing we can do.

I personally agree. However, since legally S. Ossetia is part of Georgia, it seems to me that Georgia having troops there is not justification for Russia to send its own troops in, and even more to start bombing Georgia outside of Ossetia.

ETA: And we can do something. We can have Georgia join NATO.

[tagos]

@Oy!

I personally agree. However, since legally S. Ossetia is part of Georgia, it seems to me that Georgia having troops there is not justification for Russia to send its own troops in, and even more to start bombing Georgia outside of Ossetia.

ETA: And we can do something. We can have Georgia join NATO.

Legally Kosovo was part of Serbia and at the time the Russian Foreign Minister explicitly warned the West that they were setting a precedent for South Ossetsia.

Georgia joining NATO won’t get SO or the other bits they are about to lose back. And as Georgia is dependent on Russia for gas and trade it might not be a great idea for them. But if they want to join then we should admit them.

[slaphead]

What Oy! said

@DSYoungEsq

Georgia launched a full-scale attack in an attempt to recover what it views as it’s own sovereign territory

views as it’s own soverign territory? Odd how a universally-accepted international frontier marking a bit of territory as “Georgia” would give them that idea. Can’t think where they got it from.
As for the lame Kosovo parallels - I don’t recall Albania or NATO invading Serbia iteslf in. There’s a massive difference between expelling troops from a minor territory and going on a rampage to destroy the coherence of an entire nation.

While it’s easy to work oneself into hysterics over Pootie-poots latest attempt to boost his testosterone levels by starting a war, I can well imagine that the any ex-soviet republic with a large number of Russian-speakers are feeling a bit nervous.

[tagos]

@slaphead

What Oy! said

views as it’s own soverign territory? Odd how a universally-accepted international frontier marking a bit of territory as “Georgia” would give them that idea. Can’t think where they got it from.
As for the lame Kosovo parallels - I don’t recall Albania or NATO invading Serbia iteslf in. There’s a massive difference between expelling troops from a minor territory and going on a rampage to destroy the coherence of an entire nation.

While it’s easy to work oneself into hysterics over Pootie-poots latest attempt to boost his testosterone levels by starting a war, I can well imagine that the any ex-soviet republic with a large number of Russian-speakers are feeling a bit nervous.

I recall NATO (quite rightly) bombing the shit out of Serbia for what was going on in Kosovo.

NEWSFLASH

International politics doesn’t work on ‘what is fair’ or what you consider reasonable. Attacking on the hope that Russia was too busy watching the Olympics was criminally stupid. It’s too late for them to wail on about it ‘not being fair’ now that they are reaping the whirlwind.

Russia, not in any incarnation, has ever been willing to take shit from anyone and it was insanity to provoke them when they held all the cards and Georgia held none.

[tagos]

And let’s not pretend Georgia are white knights of any sort.

They started by bombarding a city

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said more than 2,000 people had been killed in South Ossetia since Friday, most of them Ossetians with Russian passports. The figures could not be independently confirmed, but refugees who fled the city said hundreds were killed.

Thousands of civilians have fled South Ossetia—many seeking shelter in the neighboring Russian province of North Ossetia.

“The Georgians burned all of our homes,” said one elderly woman, as she sat on a bench under a tree with three other white-haired survivors of the fighting. “The Georgians say it is their land. Where is our land, then?”

City devastated

Hundreds were reported dead in the worst outbreak of hostilities since the province won de-facto independence in a war against Georgia that ended in 1992. Witnesses said the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali was devastated.

“I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars,” said Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, who had fled with her family to Dzhava, a village near the border with Russia. “It’s impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged.”

This sort of shit has been going on in that part of the world forever.

[Oy]

tagos, again we come back to the words “attack” and “provoke.” This was an internal Georgian matter. The entire world (including me) has been bitching like hell because the US invaded Iraq. This doesn’t differ that significantly.

Yes, I know realpolitik doesn’t recognize quaint little concepts like justice or fairness. But maybe it should start.

Anyway, I’m glad you agree that if Georgia wants to join NATO, it should be allowed. IMHO, immediately. And then backed up, militarily if necessarily. As Sam pointed out, there are a lot of things the US could do that don’t involve sending troops, and I really don’t think Russia would push it if they could be brought to recognize that NATO was serious.

The fact that this kind of thing has been going on in that part of the world forever is immaterial. Georgia had been making more progress toward real democracy (according to one of the reputable articles I was reading last night - can’t remember now if it was CNN or NY Times or BBC) than anywhere else in the area. This attempt in S. Ossetia was ill-judged, but that shouldn’t mean they have to break off all relations with the west, which appears to be what Russia wants.