Is society’s attitude towards crime irrational?

I do agree with the sentiment of the OP, a punishment based system, with punishment based so high on the methods to use, and also using fear as a primary based way to control people, is just plain wrong and has produced more crime IMHO. Universal Law: Karma don’t care about man’s laws, wrong is wrong, Karma will apply equally to wrong action regardless of if it’s lawful or not.

We need a system that is based on rehabilitation and wanting the best for that person and society. Can that mean taking away privileges for a time, yes, but to help build that person up from the start and to get them to come along in their personal development.

Given that m previous post did not attract comment, maybe an academic report will

The use of deterrence is complex, the use of harsher prison terms and sanctions has been found in study after study not to be the major deterrence.

Additionally, criminals, and the public in general do not really have much grasp of sentencing policy, nor do they have any real understanding of probability.

This is why criminals are caught again and again in the most obvious ways, and even the absolute most serious of offenders do not realise that the likelihood of detection increases dramatically with increasing crime severity.

Offenders generally do not realistically expect to be detected, I have come across quite a number of offenders both first timers and multiple prison terms who simply did not expect to be detected - even though any cursory examination of their offending makes it obvious they will be caught.

This is backed up by this evaluation of evidence

http://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deterrence-in-Criminal-Justice.pdf
The only thing that severity might do, and something I have observed is that occasionally an offender will change their crime of choice for fear of attracting the higher tariffs such as indeterminate sentences (where a criminal is awarded a sentence that has no upper limit ie 5 years to life)

You will note that these offenders never say they will give up offending completely.

So if offenders are not rational, it is hardly a surprise that the general public, with only limited awareness of the criminal justice system, are any more rational.

What we also have is that crime is a political totem, and it is political interference that probably has the greatest detrimental effect upon the legal system and prevents it evolving into something that is more, rather than less, likely to result in rehabilitation.
The fact is that rehabilitation is far more expensive in the short term than locking a person away for an extended period. If you truly require rehabilitation, you are looking at a period of constant supervision upon release, you are looking at ensuring an offender has access to effective mental health treatment, effective drug rehab, access to gainful and stable employment, access to accommodation, and effective support and direction to families and improvement to their living circumstances.

It will cost you the taxpayer a lot more in the upcoming years, will it reduce crime overall, perhaps. It would reduce the environment in which crime thrives, and really it is the breeding and raising of the next generation of criminals that is most likely to be useful, and that takes rather a long time.

Joe Public is not rational and will not wait that long - so your children will continue to inherit a legacy of offending.

Choice is yours, use your vote wisely

Great post. Thank you. Ref this snippet:

Besides the fact humans are bad at math and uneducated ones even worse, ISTM a big failing both in their thinking and in the official stats is proper accounting for repeated actions.

IANA expert, but I was in the business of doing software for police agencies for awhile. Some of which was associated with offender tracking, predicting & responding to crime outbreaks, etc. So I have some small insight into at least what some cops and departments thought a decade ago about what the criminals were thinking.

My thoughts:

Even somebody with a long history of e.g. burglary convictions was probably convicted for a tiny percentage of the burglaries they committed. The majority of crime is committed by a small number of very very repeat offenders. Any given offender doesn’t necessarily climb the ladder of offence. IOW, burglary from a car is not a “gateway crime” to murder sprees. OTOH, getting away with one car burglary leads pretty readily to more car burglaries.

An unsophisticated analysis by Joe Burglar is “9 out of 10 burglaries are unsolved. So I’ll get away with this one”. Equally, Joe Citizen thinks “9 out of 10 burglaries are unsolved. So lots of criminals still need jailing; if we increased prison population by 10x crime would vanish.”

Joe Burglar’s more sophisticated analysis would be “9 out of 10 burglaries are unsolved. So I have a 90% chance of getting away with one, 81% chance of getting away with 2, 73% chance of getting away with 3, 65% chance of getting away with 4, etc. Hey, I better quit after just a few or I’m goin’ down.” They don’t think that way and so they keep offending until the apparently favorable one time odds of 90/10 catch up to them.

Joe Citizen’s non-math is even dumber.
A few years ago UK Labour (under Blair I think) had the slogan “Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.” I’m not here to debate the merits of their actual policy as implemented.

But the slogan does nicely encapsulate the dichotomy that we have two different problems: managing the current crop of criminals and reducing the rate our society creates new ones. The policies that would work best on each problem attract and repel opposite sets of voters. So somehow we never manage to work on both at once for the 40-60 continuous years it would take to greatly drain the criminal incubators.

Heinous crimes like Murder, rape etc can be divided into (roughly) three cohorts.

  1. The serial guys. They are the smallest and usually have some pretty serious mental issues anyways. Deterrence would not work here.

  2. People who kill as a result of an argument or dispute gone way too far, perhaps further than they had intended. These are often people who have never committed crimes (or serious crimes) before. (For rape these often are guys who force a woman into intercourse after their initial wooing attempts are rebuffed, many have stated later that that they had not intended to do so initially, but after they a certain pont they stopped caring). This is the lagest cohort by number; deterrance won’t work here.

  3. People who kill (or rape, many stranger rapes are as the result of a break-in; where rape was not the initial motivation, but opportunity) during the committal of an earlier crime, for instance robbery, or theft or a mugging. These guys might be deterred.

For crimes like petty theft and drugs, most guys are persistent offenders, who have little chance of being caught for an individual infraction, but a near certainty of being caught eventually. As sentences here are typically not lengthy and many of them live on the margins of society, many see prison or jail as the occasional costs or risks of doing business.

I don’t think they can be deterred.

So, basically one type of criminal for who deterrence might work.

[QUOTE=LSLGuy]
A few years ago UK Labour (under Blair I think) had the slogan “Tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime.” I’m not here to debate the merits of their actual policy as implemented.

[/QUOTE]

It FUBAR’ed the Criminal Justice System. Laws were passed with ideology as the basis not a rational assessment of needs. 3000 new crimes. Overhaul of criminal procedure with an Orwellian sounding aim to “convict the guilty” and “rebalance between criminal and victim”.

Great post overall; thank you. Ref this:

I should have been a bit more explicit. I had little how well it worked (or apparently didn’t), and certainly no insider’s perspective. Though I have to say I’m not surprised it worked poorly.

I was simply speaking of the politics of the slogan as a slogan. In the neutral/positive sense of “slogan”: “an abbreviated expression that memorably summarizes the major points.”

As your link says, severity does not deter crime but likelihood of being caught does. Almost by definition a criminal is someone with impulse control problems who does not think clearly about the future. So while a rational person would be more deterred by the prospect of a longer sentence most criminals are not.
What does work is a making being caught more likely. This means better and more aggressive policing.

Don’t be short-sighted. What you need is one of those cattle compressed-air stunners that cause rapid brain death while leaving the rest of the convict’s body intact for rapid organ harvest.

It is pretty hard to detect how many people never committed a crime in the first place because of potential punishment. I imagine that number is huge. I would also guess that we have a larger more efficient police force than most countries so we catch more criminals.

Or maybe just a less ethical population that commits more crimes.

As was mentioned, the 538 article in the post you responded to starts with basically the same ‘govt statistics’ as you quote. The biggest missing piece is a much lower % of drug offenders in the much larger number of state and local prison/jail inmates than federal. Nor is it necessarily reasonable to assume the bulk of drug offenders never did anything more serious there wasn’t quite enough evidence to convict them on (which is irrelevant wrt the rights of any given defendant, you either prove the case or they are legally innocent, but can be relevant in terms of predicting the effect of just releasing all those people). Nor is 14% actually much given how it would involve releasing all drug offenders and how high the US incarceration rate is.

I think in fact the statistics say that focusing on ‘non violent’ drug offenders per se is the hope of a quick fix, but which pretty clearly doesn’t exist when you look any more closely.

Drugs in a broader sense are more of a reason so many people are locked up, from violence related to the drug business at all levels, not all of which would occur if that business changed.

Also, direct comparisons of the US other than to rich countries which also have the legacy of a system of race based slavery (…oh wait there aren’t any others), are pointless IMO. Also the US crime rate is not especially high by developed country standards, the US murder rate is. The bulk of the inmates aren’t murderers. It’s true the US doesn’t have a many times lower overall crime rate to show for a many times higher incarceration rate, but it’s getting carried away to compare the murder rate to the incarceration rate for all crimes. And again just lack of general comparability. The US is a unique rich country in terms of diversity/history of social conflict.

It doesn’t mean throwing one’s hands up at justice system reform. But it could be kind of like gun control debates where the British ability to virtually ban guns is thrown around. But that is simply not going to happen in the US, different society, not a realistic benchmark. So if eg. Norway has a good system of inmate rehabilitation independent of the subjects, absolutely study it. But it could be that the quasi-tribal nature of Norwegian society (a nice and advanced tribe, but kind of a tribe, give or take some recent immigrants) is a big factor. We just don’t have that in the US.

I’m seeing a lot of explanation but not much problem solving. If there’s a clutch of people who cannot think long term and continue to commit serious crimes, what could we do to dissuade them from committing serious crimes?

Somehow I doubt you can “fix” short-term thinking (compared to the human standard, that is).

I don’t think it is one answer but I do think there is a line of attack that might lead to easier solutions to some of the other problems. I have and do work with addicts and alcoholics many of who are ex convicts for the past 26 years. I am a non professional and my work is entirely on a support type basis.

What I have found is that a large percentage of them respond to respect and acceptance from people they consider respectable. They are good detectors and very quick to spot character defects in people. When people of whom they consider of good character and integrity shows them respect and accepts them and spends time with them a very large number start showing a willingness to learn and get better. I would suggest men and women of good character offer whatever time they have available to working with convicts could make a big difference. These same convicts will step in and fill your shoes a few years later. 

A good self image is a must and this is something they might need help with outside the system.

There’s a good article in the New York Review of Books, reviewing a book about solitary confinement in America’s prisons.

There’s no question that America’s prison system is uniquely bad among all developed nations, and appalling by any standards.

An important “big picture” thing to watch out for in discussions like this, is a common fallacy within the discussion assumptions and statements themselves.

It is fallacious to switch back and forth between discussing the concerns of INDIVIDUALS, and the concerns or actions of a LARGE GROUP OF INDIVIDUALS, without carefully noting the switch, and adjusting for it appropriately.

Case in point: a SOCIETY is not a person. It is a GENERALIZED OBSERVATION OF A SELECTED LARGE GROUP OF INDIVIDUALS. If you forget that a society is made up of a lot of unique individuals, it is easy to look at the actions the “society” takes, and conclude that this “person” (the society being observed) is schizophrenic.

The main reasons there are contradictions and disconnects in the American criminal justice system, are that:

  • the society creating the system isn’t of one mind;

  • the “system” is not actually a true system at all, it is more like the concretion of a lot of very different efforts by all the varied subgroups and individuals, who have had the power to make law.

  • there is a big difference between what people in leadership positions SAY about the motivations behind their lawmaking are, and what they actually are. This is actually rarely due to duplicity per se, it is usually due to the need to “sell” the law to enough people to get it passed.

Hence prisons are “sold” to one segment of America by describing them as punishments designed to satisfy general social anger; to another segment, by saying they are going to “repair” defective people while they are incarcerated; to another segment, by promising them that seeing some people be punished, will cause those considering a criminal act, to make another choice; and to yet another segment, by telling them that the imprisonments are going to persuade foreign observers that we have certain principles we support, which they should admire or fear.

In short, most of the arguments which go “if prison is supposed to do X[fix people/protect innocents/punish sane criminals/etc], why are there so many examples of people who it failed to do that for?”, are fallacious from the start, because they ASSUME that the legal system being questioned, was set up by a single, organized and unified entity.

IMHO there is often an inverse relationship between how emotionally charged an issue is, and how rational the debate or policies over that issue are.

Crime, and the punishment/rehabilitation of crime, is a highly emotionally charged issue. And so rational debate over it is much harder to come by.

As for the Scandinavians and their rehabilitation system, well, I don’t know how they do it, maybe they’re just naturally calmer folks. :wink:

I think you should back up your claims with more sources because I’m curious where you’re getting your information from.

For one, why do you think it’s the Western world which has an obsession with ‘incarceration’? As opposed to who? China.

Second, I believe part of the reason of incarcerating people, especially serious criminals like rapists and murders isn’t to “reform them”, it’s simply to keep them locked away from society where they can’t continue to harm others.

The first and most obvious thing to do is to look at those who do not reoffend and work out why, the reality is that these are more the exception than the rule.

Just to give you and idea how figures fro reoffending are manipulated,

In the UK we generally use some figure of reoffending within a set period of time, well we can choose that time period for our convenience, different agencies will use different time periods - so someone running a specific program will use one period of time, lets say 18 months, because it reflects well upon their program.

There are certain weaknesses, fro example different ages of offenders and different types of crimes have different reoffending rates, young people - below 21 - in the UK have a completely diabolical reoffending rate - you are looking at very much worse than 90% in a year, probably less than a year, this number is subsumed into the wider picture of all offenders.

Another weakness is that those who are newly released on licence are more closely supervised, especially those who are on electronic tags or gps tags - these individuals are less likely to reoffend in person (although they can still be part of offending by directing others) This tends to make tagging look good, but I have yet to see any figures for reoffending for those who have been taken off tagging. I can only speculate that there is a reason for this, that in the longer run tagging does not work.

There are a number of those who are very unlikely to reoffend, and it is obvious to everyone - the reason is that their offence does not lend itself to repeat - fine defaulters, breach of court orders, more serious traffic offences. It makes no sense to include these in the reoffending figures because they were not going to reoffend anyway and the prison system has had no impact upon their behaviour.

When you look at the longer term reoffending rates, the figures go up dramatically, I have seen figures for 18 months reoffending, and for 3 year reoffending which, but I have only rarely seen the figures for 9 year reoffending - this is not surprising because the 9 year figures are utterly appalling, I recall these numbers were well over 70%. If you look around though, you find it very hard to find reoffending figures for periods of more than a year - my view is because the reality is politically unacceptable.
There are organisations who do gather such figures, but generally they are not given any weight at all in developing policy, although I have seen them submit evidence to the many inquiries and white papers that the government uses as part of consultation.

Here is a lot of information in the link below, it does require some interpretation instead of taking it at face value - you need to be working within prisons to truly appreciate what it says - however I will draw your attention to page 5 of the .pdf which demonstrates all too readily how political interference has hamstrung the entire judicial system in the UK (and I won’t go into the ‘reform’ process in the courts system which will mean hundreds of courts being closed)

http://www.prisonreformtrust.org.uk/Portals/0/Documents/Bromley%20Briefings/summer%202016%20briefing.pdf

You should also look at pages 11 and 12, these relate to work activity in prisons - now I used to teach prisoners certain work skills - to the tune of 1500 level 2 qualifications a year, essential stuff for them because those qualifications related directly tot eh sort of work that prisoners are most likely to access - that training I did was withdrawn, I actually do another job that pays better.

The work activity in prisons is now largely meaningless, because it is only predicated upon the numbers of prisoners you can put into a workshop with as few staff as possible to operate the work areas - unsurprisingly the number of employment based qualifications has fallen off a cliff.

This is absolutely all down to money and political theory, nothing else whatsoever is responsible.

Recidivism rates are also strongly correlated with age -

A lot of prisoners are essentially doing life on the installment plan. Eventually they age out of the cohort most associated with crime, and don’t re-offend nearly as much as a released prisoner in his twenties. I suppose you could call that rehabilitation.

Regards,
Shodan

Why do you think recidivism rates are much lower in other countries? Do you think they are as low as they possibly can be, or could we improve things to lower them further?

Other countries have lower crime rates to begin with, and less diverse populations. I’d like recidivism rates to be lower in the US, but I am not aware of any programs that work on a large scale. If murder were as rare in the US as it is in Japan, we would have more resources to concentrate on rehabbing murderers, as well as a much stronger cultural background discouraging crime and deviations from the social norm in general.

Saying ‘it works in Norway’ is fine. Will it work on some 20 year old in Newark with a criminal history as long as your arm?

Regards,
Shodan