[QUOTE=China Guy]
Well, this was kinda true in the past.
Legally speaking, Taiwan has de facto independance but not de jeure independance.
Currrently there’s a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. Eg, Everyone in Taiwan has given up on the “Republic of China is the legitimate government of China and Mongolia” fiction except for a very few right wing loons. However, there is also the standing fiction that “China would reunify by force should Taiwan declare de jeure independance.” and the current president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, is a hardcore independant advocate and even he has managed to never quite cross that political line after taking office.
My personal opinion is certainly within a decade if not half that time, economic integration will force a political real politik rapporchment (sp?) between Taiwan and China. Heck, anywhere between 5-10% of the entire population is in China at any given time working, doing deals, managing investments. I am personally waiting for the day after President Chen Shui-bian steps down and direct flights between Taiwan and the Mainland are inagurated.
[/QUOTE]
Which was the substance of my statment. Legally, there is a position advocated by both governments. Since both governments claim to be the one and only rulers of a unified China, neither government can accept a position in the UN with the other government recognized, for what would each be governing? If the Republic of China were to accept a seat in the UN, it would have to be accepting a seat as the government of something other than “China,” which it cannot do, yet, under its formal policy. In a world where you can have a country such as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, so named simply because the Greeks get all touchy about the meaning of “Macedonia,” it’s not too surprising to see that Taiwan is still unable to accept a seat in the UN.
Nor is the secession of states in 1861 apposite, as ElvisL1ves suggests, because in that case, the states of the South were not claiming to be the sole and proper government of the United States. And even if the situation were apposite, we could only consider it completely apposite if, say, the Civil War had left the Union in control of Rhode Island, and nothing else, and the Confederacy was indeed claiming to be the new United States of America.
China Guy puts his finger on the whole key right now. The Republic of China is damned if they do and damned if they don’t. By asserting that they are still the proper government of all China, they cannot be treated by the world as a true nation de jure. And if they attempt to accept political and military reality as legal reality, by declaring themselves some new nation that is not part of “China,” they face the possiblity of forced reunification by the PRC. While there may be sufficient doubt on the part of Beijing about what the US would do in that situation to provoke the consequences through military action, I, at least, have no doubt that Taiwan is not sufficiently important enough for the United States to engage in nuclear war over. Taiwan’s rulers undoubtedly consider the whole question kind of moot, since regardless of what the US would or would not do, Taiwan certainly would not come through such a military effort unscathed.
Therefore, they simply sit and wait and act in all ways like a country, except that they don’t have a seat at the UN, etc.