A cognitive problem that seems to have entered many people’s minds from politics in the last 20 years is people having a hard time distinguishing between you predicting an outcome or saying a fact, and you being happily supportive of that fact.
IOW “I think the GOP will prevent a timely budget this week” is taken by your audience as you supporting them doing that, whether that’s true or not. Many people only want to talk positively about things they support, and will only speak negatively of things they don’t support.
As applied to “He’s not wrong”, IMO that can also be a way to say “He is right, but don’t mistakenly think that means I’m glad he’s right. I’m stating a fact, not giving an endorsment.”