I don’t know if the insincere performance of rituals is easily determined. Just because a girl wears jeans with her hijab doesn’t mean that she is not really practicing. Obviously it doesn’t contradict the rule of modesty for them.
On the other hand there are lots of people who fake being religious out of fear of social or legal repercussions that could even include disownment or violence. How many, and whether they are apostates or some kind of heterodox, is really, really hard to know. There are also people who act more religious for the social benefit, but again, how to count these people?
On the other other hand, there are lots of people for whom Islam has become a strong community marker, asking them to observe some rituals but otherwise not encouraging a lot of devotion. The amount of Muslims who try to fast for Ramadan in France is much higher than the amount who go to Mosque or who pray regularly. In Europe, lots of young Muslims assimilate very well, but others react conservatively.
The internet and globalization does promote questioning for lots of people, but others settle into niches that aren’t available to them in their towns and can actually get more extreme. Certainly, the religiosities of Islamic communities have not followed single trends in the last 150 years. In Egypt, to take your example, you would not have seen many hijabs on the street in 1950. Huda Shaarawi unveiling herself a few decades before was a huge deal. Things change.
If this were an academic setting I would challenge the idea that religion is boring by noting that religion as meaning making is something that everyone does all the time. In fact, because it is about assigning value and meaning, it is the only thing that we can legitimately say is inherently not boring. But I know that here and in most places, religion’s definition is limited to particular institutionalized forms, and people will (with good reason) bristle to be told they are always doing “religion” when a big part of their identity is based on the idea that they are not. So I will just say, yeah, practicing Islam traditionally is burdensome for lots of people. But my experience with ex-Muslims is that people don’t usually leave for that reason. And this is counterbalanced by the people for whom praying 5 times a day, fasting for Ramadan, and dressing in a certain way is something they derive real value from, even if they sometimes don’t want to wake up early.
The problem is that the way Islam is part of the establishment in many Muslim countries is not the way Christian churches were a part of European countries, and the close association of ‘secular’ states and religion in Muslim countries has actually seen growing religiosity.
Things could play out similar to what the OP is predicting, and there are signs that anti-religious movements are burgeoning in surprising places. But if it happens it probably won’t follow the Christian example.