Is the situation in Iraq improving?

[RTFirefly]

And this comes after the heightened security measures instituted two weeks ago:

Wednesday morning, embassy personnel received a bulletin citing the “recent increase of indirect fire attacks on the embassy compound.” It included strict instructions: Body armor and helmets would now be required for all “outdoor activities” within the sprawling embassy complex, even short walks to the cafeteria. There would be no group gatherings outside, including at the famed Palace Pool. No “nonessential” visitors would be allowed in the compound.

[Dinsdale]

Man, this is ugly shit.
Yeah - looks like everything is going to be wrapped up pleasantly is short order.
Why on earth did we ever wade into that hornets’ nest?
For heaven’s sake, bring our sons and daughters home, quit pouring our fortune into a bottomless pit, and let those maniacs feed on themselves.

[Merijeek]

@elucidator

Think maybe this is the actual inspiration for the “Baghdad surge”? That the Bushiviks fear that the Green Zone is in danger of collapse? How do you say “Tet offensive” in Arabic?

There’s no need to do a new Tet Offensive. Unless Baghdad is going to become its own country, the Green Zone can stay as green as it wants.

-Joe

[Squink]

@RTFirefly

And a major bridge over the Tigris got blown up too. (Same link.)

Man, that bridge is toast!
Two spans in the water, one standing, I thought bridges were designed to be hard to destroy.

[elucidator]

@Merijeek

There’s no need to do a new Tet Offensive. Unless Baghdad is going to become its own country, the Green Zone can stay as green as it wants…

True enough, Joe, but not quite what I mean. I was speculating that the Bushiviks may have gotten wind of an upcoming effort to crush the Green Zone. I think that if the “insurgency” had any real central command and strategy, like the VC and NVA did, that is precisely what they would do. Despite casualties (which would be huge), they woud have demonstrated the fragility of the occupation, and trebled political opposition here in the States.

So under the guise of experimenting with Gen Petraeus’ anti-insurgency plan, they bolster and reinforce the Baghdad garrison, probably more in hopes of forestalling such a “Tet” offensive rather than defeating it.

As I said, speculative.

[Voyager]

@elucidator

You mean to tell me that the success of the plan depends on the American people tolerating and accepting an increase in American casualties? Are you serious? Sam! No fucking way!

Before the surge people predicted there would be an increase in casualties and a decrease in violence in Baghdad, just from the increased presence of troops. I don’t think the violence has decreased as much as predicted. Maybe this strategy would have worked three years ago, but the real question is if it is too little and too late to be effective. The real test comes when American troops leave their forward positions.
As for a measure of progress - I’d think there would be real progress when electricity production starts returning. According to the quarterly tracking in the Times, it hasn’t budged in years. That would improve the life of all the people.

[DanBlather]

@Squink

Man, that bridge is toast!
Two spans in the water, one standing, I thought bridges were designed to be hard to destroy.

Anyone can build a bridge, it takes an engineer to build a bridge that barely stands up.

[Ryan_Liam]

@elucidator

Think maybe this is the actual inspiration for the “Baghdad surge”? That the Bushiviks fear that the Green Zone is in danger of collapse? How do you say “Tet offensive” in Arabic?

It’s classic insurgent tactics to ‘up their game’ since the security surge is designed to improve living standards and credibility of the Iraqi Government to its people. This horrendous attack on Parliament and the bridge are but two examples of the mass campaigns to destroy any chance of this surge taking off the ground.

And let’s remember, in terms of military outcome, the Tet offensive was an abject failure.

[Sal_Ammoniac]

@Ryan_Liam

This horrendous attack on Parliament and the bridge are but two examples of the mass campaigns to destroy any chance of this surge taking off the ground.

Or to put it another way, the surge isn’t working, no?

[Merijeek]

@Ryan_Liam

And let’s remember, in terms of military outcome, the Tet offensive was an abject failure.

And, in political terms, it was a success.

You can have all the military victories you want, it’s the politics afterwards that matter.

-Joe

[SteveG1]

Short answer. No, the situation is not improving. At best, it is static.

[RTFirefly]

@Ryan_Liam

It’s classic insurgent tactics to ‘up their game’ since the security surge is designed to improve living standards and credibility of the Iraqi Government to its people. This horrendous attack on Parliament and the bridge are but two examples of the mass campaigns to destroy any chance of this surge taking off the ground.

Had the insurgents been taking it easy before the surge?? Hell, no! Why do you think Bush thought a surge was needed??

If what you say is true - that they can ‘up their game’ in response to our having done so - especially to the level of being able to produce attacks of a potency beyond anything they’d previously managed, in the very place we’re concentrating our strength - then they’re playing this ‘game’ at a whole 'nother level from us, and are simply toying with us. We haven’t gained diddly by surging, because they’re just upping their game to stay ahead of us.

[gonzomax]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiRugtbQGA8 It was not a horrible waste land before we started.

[Der_Trihs]

Is the situation in Iraq improving?

The Red Cross says no.

Life for ordinary Iraqis is getting worse as they try to live with a poor healthcare system, little electricity, a shortage of drinking water and bodies left lying on the streets in unsanitary conditions, according to a report by the Red Cross.

After some of the most intense fighting in Baghdad for two months yesterday, which saw a heavy exchange of gunfire between insurgents and the US military, the bodies of twenty insurgents were still lying in the streets of the capital today.

< snip >

A mother living in Baghdad told the Red Cross that dead bodies were a constant reminder of the conflict. “The most important thing that anyone could do would be to help collect the bodies that line the streets in front of our homes every morning. No one dares touching them,” she said.

< snip >

Abu Ahmed, from a displaced family said: "My family is Shiite. We live together with a Sunni family. Both families were forced to leave their homes by militias. There are 30 of us, sharing the same living space: 14 children and 14 adults, and grannies on both sides. We live on an abandoned construction site and protect ourselves from the weather with plastic sheets.”

< snip >

James Hider, The Times correspondent in Baghdad, explained that the infrastructure in Iraq was in crisis and showed little sign of improvement. “The entire healthcare system has collapsed. There are so few supplies that there are just 30 intensive care units in Baghdad and people are getting shot every day,” he said. “If you get shot in Iraq, they’ll patch you up, but you are going to die as there is no after care.”

“There are common complaints about water supply and the electricity is off all day, it hasn’t improved since the war. There was a demonstration in Sadr City over the lack of clean water and basic services.”

[FRDE]

@RTFirefly

then they’re playing this ‘game’ at a whole 'nother level from us, and are simply toying with us. We haven’t gained diddly by surging, because they’re just upping their game to stay ahead of us.

With unscrupulous editing.

They are learning: ‘Every day, in every way I get better at making life miserable for the invaders and their Quislings.’

Let them sort things out, and if it becomes a total mess, then contain them.

Never get involved in domestic feuds.

[Hentor_the_Barbarian]

@FRDE

Never get involved in domestic feuds.

Better yet, don’t start them.

[RedFury]

@Ryan_Liam

It’s classic insurgent tactics to ‘up their game’ since the security surge is designed to improve living standards and credibility of the Iraqi Government to its people. This horrendous attack on Parliament and the bridge are but two examples of the mass campaigns to destroy any chance of this surge taking off the ground

– bolding/underlining mine.

A bloody message from Iraq: nowhere is safe…

Gung-ho as ever, are you Ryan? Especially when it’s other people’s blood that’s being shed.

And damn straight the fuckin’ “Surge” ain’t working. Yet another ‘told you so’ that most us of realists regret having to remind you folks on the ‘make your own reality’ side.

Well, maybe if the UK just used a little more Force Projection to help their lost American cousins and we give few more Friedman units thing’s will turn around.

Right, Ryan?

:rolleyes:

[RedFury]

The Iraqi resistance only exists to end the occupation

There is only one solution to this disaster, and that is for the US and Britain to accept that the Iraqi resistance is fighting to end the occupation. And to acknowlege that it consists of ordinary Iraqis, not only al-Qaida, not just Sunnis or Shias, not those terrorists - as Tony Blair called them - inspired by neighbouring countries such as Iran. To recognise that Iraqis are proud, peace-loving people, and that they hate occuption, not each other. And to understand that the main targets of the resistance are not Iraqi civilians. According to Brookings, the independent US research institute, 75% of recorded attacks are directed at occupation forces, and a further 17% at Iraqi government forces. The average number of attacks has more than doubled in the past year to about 185 a day. That is 1,300 a week, and more than 5,500 a month.

Another way of understanding this is that in any one hour, day or night, there are seven or eight new attacks. Without the Iraqi people’s support, directly and indirectly, this level of resistance would not have happened.

– bolding mine.

The Iraqis don’t want you there and will keep killing and dying for as long as you are. Why is that message so freakin’ hard to understand for some of you?

[RTFirefly]

Charles Krauthammer, today:

By the day, the debate at home about Iraq becomes increasingly disconnected from the realities of the war on the ground. The Democrats in Congress…speak almost not at all about the first visible results of [the administration’s current military] strategy.

And preliminary results are visible.

They certainly are, aren’t they, Chucko?

Pretty sucky timing to say that someone else is disconnected from reality, when you’re saying the surge is working.

[marshmallow]

@RedFury

The Iraqis don’t want you there and will keep killing and dying for as long as you are. Why is that message so freakin’ hard to understand for some of you?

Now, now, Redfury. Even extremely intelligent people at the highest levels of power can have trouble with this concept. Robert McNamara had this to say in The Fog of War (an amazing movie BTW, it’s basically him talking for two hours):

There aren’t many examples in which you bring two former enemies together, at the highest levels, and discuss what might have been. I formed the hypothesis that each of us could have achieved our objectives without the terrible loss of life. And I wanted to test that by going to Vietnam.

The former Foreign Minister of Vietnam, a wonderful man named Thach said, “You’re totally wrong! We were fighting for our independence. You were fighting to enslave us.”

We almost came to blows. That was noon on the first day.

“Do you mean to say it was not a tragedy for you, when you lost three million four hundred thousand Vietnamese killed, which on our population base is the equivalent of 27 million Americans? What did you accomplish? You didn’t get any more than we were willing to give you at the beginning of the war. You could have had the whole damn thing: independence, unification.”

“Mr. McNamara, you must never have read a history book. If you’d had, you’d know we weren’t pawns of the Chinese or the Russians…McNamara, didn’t you know that? Don’t you understand that we have been fighting the Chinese for a thousand years? We were fighting for our independence. And we would fight to the last man and we were determined to do so. And no amount of bombing, no amount of U.S. pressure would ever have stopped us.”

The meeting he is recalling took place in 1995.