The Impolitic: Petraeus admits 1 in 4 chance of surge success When the general in charge thinks the chances are poor and thinks negotiation with the Bush badguys is the solution , how can anyone greet it with enthusiasm.
I call bullshit. If it’s to just end the occupation, then explain the time when Iraqi Government troops went to Hilla to confront the Mahdi Army and which ended up with the Iraqis defeating the militia, but in so doing had 20 of its soldiers beheaded in a public square. Or how a female suicide bomber blew herself up in Baghdad University, or how chlorine gas attacks help anyone in Fallujah, or how blowing up sacred shrines, the heart of an elected government, killing children, blowing up bridges, dividing the people even further and executing public officials and Iraqi Security forces and Police is noble in the heart of resistance?
I bet plenty of the Iraqis want us to go cough not the Kurds though cough but what will be the point if security forces aren’t up to scratch? Most of the Iraqi army doesn’t have an effective logistical network in order to suppy its forces in the field. So simply abandoning them to take on insurgents is ridiculous. Also I’ll hear how nearly every Iraqi Army unit is riddled with sectarianism and how it’s just 3 militias rolled into one national army, well, even more reason to fully train and advise the Iraqi Army and government into being able to field effective security forces. Why can’t people deal with the fact the a slower withdrawal and acting as backup for Iraqi forces is an effort which is ten times more effective and helpful to the Iraqis themselves, rather than just withdrawing and leaving them to fend off people lob mortars into neighbourhoods or blow up cars in entire markets or set off chlorine bombs against people they regard as their support base?
Not to mention that withdrawal with no strings attatched just becomes another self fullfilling prophecy, fine we withdraw, then come the stories of how such and such militia takes control of such and such a place in Iraq, but then since we withdrew without adequately providing training and assistance to Government forces, then how would it turn any other way?
If we were to take her advice, and withdrew, a few months after that article would be another with the explanation and blame of how the US abandoned the Iraqis to their fate, and left them to slaughter each other mercilessly. Back to square one, and nothing solved.
I feel sorry for the Iraqis, they hedge their bets with the ‘resistance’ which will draw ethnic battle lines all across the country, probably destroy them, because the worlds greatest power doesn’t have the ability to even train forces willing to protect them because it’s on a time limit.
Maybe because there’s nothing in the past four years to support the expectation that we can do anything useful for Iraq? Since we invaded, the quality of life there has nosedived. What’s to say that the trend won’t continue? What’s to say that things won’t get worse and worse? To me that seems far likelier than supposing that suddenly – miraculously – the negative trend will turn positive.
One of the problems, though, is surrounding some of the words you just used: “adequately providing training”. How are we supposed to know when the forces are “adequately” trained? If we consider them adequately trained and start to make our exit, what happens if it turns out they weren’t as well trained as we thought/hoped? Are we going to be able to say “Well, we thought they were adequately trained - we tried the best we could”?
And I don’t think there’s any way we could pull off a withdrawal with “no strings attached”. We’re as tied up as a marionette doll in this mess, regardless of when we withdraw.
I think that this is going to happen regardless of when we pull our troops out.
(underlining mine)
IMO, if the underlined portion of your statement were removed, it would become a more accurate representation of the problem we’re having here.
LilShieste
Noble ? Nope. Effective ? Yes. The worse they make things in Iraq, the worse we come off; some are ruthless enough to kill their own people to accomplish that. And killing the Iraqis who actually cooperate with us, like Iraqi soldiers and police, is pretty much standard in an occupation; few people like collaborators, and we are unpopular that anyone who works with us risks being killed by his or her own family, much less a militia.
Because it’s not a fact; there’s no evidence that us staying longer will do anything but stretch out the chaos and death.
So we should stay forever ? And that’s what’s happening right now anyway. And it’s not just “nothing solved”; we’ve also made things much worse for the Iraqis. I expect we’ve sealed Saddam’s place in Iraqi history as a great ruler, because we’ve made life without him so much worse.
No, we don’t have the ability because we are the enemy. The people who would make good soldiers and police are all going to be among the Iraqis shooting at us.
Every damn post, every damn one, all of them, every single one you’ve ever replied to me to, insinuates this.
‘They deserve to die, we are the criminals, the insurgents are heroes, they deserve to die, we deserve our solidiers to be killed, they deserve to die’ etc etc and so on and so forth. If you have nothing to contribute other and a diatribe of useless sloganeering and very bad brainwashing attempts, cut it out.’
‘They deserve to die, they deserve to die etc etc’
I can go on at lengths to say even if we fail, we should at least build up a security forces which can at least supply it’s troops in the field half assed without giving up on them, hell, South Vietnam had a better chance against a heavily armed client state in the Cold War than we’re giving the Iraqis.
Tell that to the Kurds, or will you be stupid enough to assume that because they’re a different ethnicity, and have been part of the country for 70-odd years, they don’t count because they’re not Iraq?
Shias and Sunnis say Saddam was great out of desperation, not out of admiration. I doubt any Shias warm for the days of Saddam Hussein, or Kurds, which constitute 80% of the populace.
Nearly 320,000 Iraqis are in the security forces. (Which for people out there, doesn’t necessarily constitute the combat forces but the infrastructure of the entire forces) and there’s no conscription policy in Iraq, most of these volunteer, risk their lives, to serve in it. Sometimes no amounts of food or job offers can prompt someone to do this job unless they saw a sacrifice for a better future.
Except I said nothing of the sort. I said that the iraq fighter are not all noble, and that some are trying to kill other Iraqis for political/strategic reasons.
Although I do think our soldiers deserve to die, I don’t approve of the Iraqis killing each other.
You assume that we can.
They don’t regard themselves as Iraqi; why should I ?
I expect they would; after our occupation and the chaos that will continue once we leave, they’ll look back at Saddam’s reign as a golden age by comparison. It’s already worse than it was under him, and it’s going to keep getting worse for a long time.
First, you assume that they are motivated by something other than the desire for food/shelter for themselves and their families, or a desire to get weapons and training for their civil war. Second, they risk their lives just by being in Iraq, thanks to us. Third, I doubt that many of them expect a better future, especially from anything that we are involved in.
McCain’s straight talk express just lost all its tires.
OK, the transcript looks bad enough but just watch the video. He’s going into Bush territory in terms of poor public speaking. Maybe it’s the jet lag?
Still another ‘Sign of Progress’:
Dueling spy agencies, huh?
Another sign of progress:
Training Iraqi troops no longer driving force in U.S. policy
Remember this from 2005?
It’s dead, but the president hasn’t bothered to tell us. Now we have to win the civil war before anyone can come home.
This is the thing that has bugged me from the start. The way to measure progress is to compile statistics across a wide spectrum of metrics–everything from unemployment to power generation to deaths to the number of ice cream cones eaten. Plot the data points on graphs that show trend lines. Then we can tell if things are getting better or not.
But it’s never like this with this administration. We get meaningless stats devoid of any context (500 schools were built last month). If the trend lines actually showed good news, I’d think the administration would be touting them to high heaven. But they don’t, and until they do, I’m going to be hard pressed to believe things are improving.
Three mutually hostile militias. Crucial distinction. So, rather than just three scorpions in a bottle, you propose to improve the situation by making the antagonists better armed and trained?
Three mutally hostile militias with territorial, resource access, religious and historical differences against one another, constantly being fuelled by provocative atrocities. I’m with Ryan. I can’t see anything but ponies raining from the sky here.
I watched a news report a couple of weeks ago showing one of the joint US/Shia Iraqi Baghdad patrols. Long story short. The US and Iraq components ended up with weapons on each other over the treatment of a Sunni suspect. The Iraqi’s wanted to take him ‘away’. The US troops, to their credit, refused because they knew damn well what was going to happen to him. The US troops called for back up as they insisted on arresting him (they did and let him go immediately they got to base.) It was just ridiculous.
And the interesting thing was that there was no sense that in any way this was that unusual. There was clear, strong and voiced distrust of the Iraq troops and one American said this was because they were probably militia. You didn’t know if the guys you were with in the day weren’t the same guys firing at you at night.
Things are improving every day.
Muqtada al Sadr
It is solved. Blurb on TV says US to build a 3 mile wall in Baghdad to separate Sunni and Shia neighborhoods.
Becoming more like the US every day 
They got that one from the Cheney handbook on how to subvert and intelligence agency.
It worked in Berlin!
-Joe
Let us pray that it ends up three miles long.