This is a good topic, and I don’t have any counterarguments. However the GOP has shown itself to be very fanatical and single minded, whereas the democratic party can be wimpy and centrist. So even with super majorities the dems will see their influence be less than the influence the GOP has with smaller majorities. So dems will control the government, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to achieve much.
There are certain factors going into why we are entering a democratic sun phase.
Youth voters and the professional class are disgusted by the religious right, anti-science, anti-common sense, pro-violence attitudes of the GOP.
Youth voters make up about 18% of the electorate, but by around 2016 people born after 1979 will make up nearly 1/3 of the electorate. Young people voted dem by 10% margins in 2004, 22% in 2006 and 34% in 2008. I don’t see this trend reversing as the GOP becomes the party of obstructionism, religious fundamentalism, protofascism and know nothingness.
At the same time the average fox news and talk radio listener is a man in his 60s and 70s. So as the decade goes on, half the talk radio/fox news audience will die and be replaced by liberal youth.
Another issue is the breakdown of traditional families. Single people vote democratic and as of now about 25% of hte electorate is unmarried women, who vote democratic nearly 2-1. There have been some arguments that these single women, if they can be mobilized and activated to participate, could be to the democratic party what the religious right (who also make up 25% of the electorate and go GOP 2-1) are to the republicans.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_22_59/ai_n27453117/
Everything is going against the GOP. The % who rarely/never attend church is growing and we are becoming more secular. The % who are non-white is growing from about 13% in 1992 to 25% in 2008.
We are becoming more urban.
However I think the GOP will gain seats in 2010 because GOP voters (religious people, white people) supposedly have higher turnout than democratic voters (young people, non-whites, single women) during midterm elections.
Plus the democratic base is pissed off and will not be volunteering as hard, and if we do much will be put into primaries from the left rather than general elections against GOP candidates.
So I think the GOP will gain seats in 2010, but they will still be a minority party. Nonetheless, they will be a minority party for decades.
They are even losing the south due to urbanization, the youth vote and higher rates of non-whites who are voting. North Carolina and Virginia went democratic in 2008. Texas is expected to be a swing state in 2012 or 2016. Georgia could become a swing state due to growth in the Atlanta area.
However if the democratic base (liberals and union members) can find a way to intimidate the democratic politicians via advertisements against incumbents, withholding donations or withholding volunteer efforts and putting all those efforts into primaries from the left, combined with things like a strong unified movement within congress (like the CPC is showing on health care) then I think by 2013 the democratic party might actually be a party willing to stand up for democratic values.