Is the Winnebago Effect a bellwether for an economic downturn?

[Fear_Itself]

Recession Signs Grow as Winnebago Leads U.S. RV Drop

Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.

For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.

Is this a reliable indicator of the likelihood of an economic downturn next year and beyond?

[Voyager]

I wonder if gas prices have anything to do with that in this case. So, I’m not sure.

On the other hand, my wife is a freelance writer, and she’s observed that her work increases when the economy changes up or down - and her workload has just increased. So though I’m not sure about the RV effect, that doesn’t mean that I doubt a recession is coming.

[ElvisL1ves]

There are plenty of other signs, though:

Wall Street is betting on a recession.

Investors in stocks and bonds are paying prices that indicate they believe a snowballing housing crisis and worsening credit crunch will soon tip the U.S. economy into a recession, analysts said.

Investors were so eager to buy ultra-safe government bonds yesterday that they were willing to accept sharply lower interest rates. The rate on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 3.84 percent from 4 percent Friday. The low rates indicate investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates aggressively in the coming year to ease the pain of recession.

Stocks are now down more than 10 percent from their peak in October. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 2.3 percent yesterday, dropping the market to a level that Wall Street analysts say reflects an expectation that corporate profits will fall.

Taken together, those and other data indicate that financial markets have a decidedly negative prognosis for the economy. “They’re saying the odds of a recession are pretty damn high,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

But of course the Usuals will be along shortly to tell us this latest Bush recession is actually Clinton’s fault.

[Merijeek]

@ElvisL1ves

But of course the Usuals will be along shortly to tell us this latest Bush recession is actually Clinton’s fault.

No…they will point out that the President doesn’t have any appreciable influence on the economy. Except for Tax Cuts, of course.

If there is a recession coming, we all know there’s only one solution.

-Joe

[toadspittle]

@Merijeek

If there is a recession coming, we all know there’s only one solution.

-Joe

Another bubble? What sector is next? We’ve done tulips and railroads and dot-coms and real estate…

[msmith537]

@Merijeek

No…they will point out that the President doesn’t have any appreciable influence on the economy. Except for Tax Cuts, of course.

If there is a recession coming, we all know there’s only one solution.

-Joe

Clearly it isn’t the fault of dilusional homeowners who purchased homes they had no hope of ever affording. Or gready lenders who made made all those bad loans. We all know EVERYTHING is Bush’s fault.

[China_Guy]

Winnebago’s in and of themselves don’t mean much. That said, if you’ve got 20 indicators that have historically been reasonably reliable, and most/all of them are pointing to a recession then the probability gets higher and higher. I’m always suspicious of one single indicator. But if you look at new home starts, new car sales, number of homes being transacted, treasury yields, gold prices, ad naseum, then it starts looking pretty bleak.

[jjimm]

If I were you, I’d move to China!

[John_Mace]

Wow. It only took 4 posts for 2 stawman arguments to be put out there. :rolleyes:

I just heard about this “Winnebago Effect” yesterday for the first time. Personally, I’m nervous. Not just because of this, but the market is very jittery. Consumer confidence is very low, partly due to lower housing prices, and the Fed seems to be reluctant to lower interest rates any more. The thing is, the next recession is inevitable. Will it come next year or the year after? Who knows. But one will come as surely as the sun rises in the east. And it won’t be the end of the world.

[Spoke]

@toadspittle

Another bubble? What sector is next? We’ve done tulips and railroads and dot-coms and real estate…

Old comic books?

[chappachula]

umm, is this really surprising?

as www.standupeconomist.com says,
“economists have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions”

The economy always goes up and down, but somehow we manage to survive.

[Muffin]

If only Bush hadn’t given Clinton a blow job . . .