Factual question, but relates to elections so I’ll bung it in here.
I’m curious if any stats folks have put up a vote distribution list for all 50 states, with the votes broken down for eachj state (primarily R and D, I assume), with the seats for each state similarly broken down R and D.
I’ve been googling, and all I can find is the electoral vote distributions. I’m curious about the vote distribution for each state and their congressional deleation to the House of Represenatives. Maybe I’m just not framing the question correctly.
Poked around for a while there but didn’t find state-wide totals. Lots of detail about individual elections. Was there a particular spot you were thinking of?
Shows the discrepencies between votes cast and seats won for each state. How much of that is due to gerrymandering, and how much to FPTP, is another question.
If we look at the Cook Partisan Voter Index for the 435 congressional districts (linked above), we can calculate that the mean district is D+0.44 while the median district is R+2. This means that the non-parametric skew of the partisan lean of congressional districts is R+2.44.
Non-parametric skew may not be 100% due to gerrymandering, but gerrymandering certainly causes some non-parametric skew.
We can also calculate non-parametric skew by state. Here’s a table of states sorted by most skewed to least skewed. Note: states with one or two congressional districts automatically have a non-parametric skew of zero.
State
Mean
Median
Skew
Missouri
R+10.13
R+19.00
R+8.88
Wisconsin
R+1.38
R+8.50
R+7.13
Louisiana
R+11.17
R+17.50
R+6.33
Georgia
R+3.07
R+9.00
R+5.93
Tennessee
R+13.11
R+19.00
R+5.89
Mississippi
R+10.00
R+15.50
R+5.50
Indiana
R+10.67
R+15.00
R+4.33
New Mexico
D+2.67
D+7.00
D+4.33
Michigan
R+0.21
R+4.50
R+4.29
Minnesota
D+0.25
R+4.00
R+4.25
Florida
R+1.78
R+6.00
R+4.22
New Jersey
D+7.42
D+3.50
R+3.92
Kentucky
R+16.67
R+20.50
R+3.83
New York
D+11.81
D+8.00
R+3.81
Colorado
D+2.71
D+6.00
D+3.29
Oregon
D+5.20
D+2.00
R+3.20
Virginia
D+2.18
R+1.00
R+3.18
Nebraska
R+14.00
R+11.00
D+3.00
South Carolina
R+8.00
R+11.00
R+3.00
California
D+14.02
D+17.00
D+2.98
Massachusetts
D+14.78
D+12.00
R+2.78
Iowa
R+6.75
R+4.00
D+2.75
North Carolina
R+3.62
R+6.00
R+2.38
Arkansas
R+16.25
R+18.50
R+2.25
Ohio
R+5.31
R+7.50
R+2.19
Alabama
R+15.00
R+17.00
R+2.00
Maryland
D+14.00
D+16.00
D+2.00
Arizona
R+0.33
R+2.00
R+1.67
Texas
R+3.64
R+5.00
R+1.36
Pennsylvania
R+2.17
R+3.50
R+1.33
Nevada
D+0.75
R+0.50
R+1.25
Connecticut
D+7.00
D+8.00
D+1.00
West Virginia
R+23.00
R+22.00
D+1.00
Washington
D+6.40
D+5.50
R+0.90
Kansas
R+12.00
R+12.50
R+0.50
Illinois
D+7.83
D+7.50
R+0.33
Utah
R+13.25
R+13.50
R+0.25
Alaska
R+9.00
R+9.00
Even
Delaware
D+6.00
D+6.00
Even
Hawaii
D+14.50
D+14.50
Even
Idaho
R+18.50
R+18.50
Even
Maine
D+1.00
D+1.00
Even
Montana
R+11.00
R+11.00
Even
New Hampshire
Even
Even
Even
North Dakota
R+20.00
R+20.00
Even
Oklahoma
R+20.00
R+20.00
Even
Rhode Island
D+8.00
D+8.00
Even
South Dakota
R+16.00
R+16.00
Even
Vermont
D+15.00
D+15.00
Even
Wyoming
R+26.00
R+26.00
Even
Knowing what we know about who is drawing the lines, and their intent, in some states. It looks like non-parametric skew is a pretty good proxy for quantifying gerrymandering.