Is there a climate warming slowdown?

[Learjeff]

According to this Reuters article,

Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions

Is there a statistically significant deviation from predictions? If so, has it been acknowledged by the IPCC scientists?

I’m not trying to fuel the pro/anti IPCC flames here, but rather, to help put this article and its claims in perspective, and I appreciate the reasonably skeptical approach I often see here in SD GQ.

A few years back, I tried to evaluate the science of anthropogenic global warming for myself, but unlike evloution, the complexity of the science and math surpassed my understanding. As a result, I tend to take the “conservative” approach to believe that the concensus opinion should be taken seriously, but that it could be wrong. (Anyone who has their mind made up on this issue is either a dedicated expert or a fool.) But I’d rather not debate the big question here, which would be more appropriate in GD.

Pointers to other articles on this subject from different viewpoints would be appreciated, as well.

Thanks!

[naita]

As I recall from other science news, the global average atmospheric temperature hasn’t been rising in the last few years, but ocean temp has and sea ice minimums keep getting lower.

That Reuters article is really odd. It starts with what you quote, but contains no references to these “scientists”, just quotes that don’t appear to be in response to this claim from known AGW doubter Lomborg and some guy who’s an “expert in climate change and professor of economics”. Where’s the information from climate scientists?

[Askance]

This from a recent New Scientist:

HAS global warming stopped? The trend has stalled in recent years, but climate modellers this week said this amounts to a “blip” caused by natural variability. What’s more, a forecast made in 1999 has actually proven correct over the past decade – although temperatures will have to start rising again soon if it is going to stay on track (see “Climate modellers vindicated as forecast comes true”).

The most likely cause of the recent blip is changing heat flows between oceans and atmosphere. If so, temperatures may rise again around 2020 as the natural cycle combines with greenhouse warming to cause a new surge.

[Blkshp]

The article from the Economist linked below talks in some detail about the divergence of the predictions and actual temperatures. See the chart “Falling Off the Scale”.

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions

[T]emperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models (see chart 1). If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models’ range within a few years.

[chacoguy]

I can’t find a link, but apparently the decrease in paper consumption has left more trees standing. Thus, more carbon sinks.

[Learjeff]

Thanks, everyone. I agree the Reuters article is pretty poor.

In particular, Blkshp’s link is very helpful.

[Colophon]

The problem is that the models assume a smooth increase, but climate doesn’t work like that. You get big jumps, then plateaus and little falls etc, and depending on where you take the start and end points on the graph, you can either demonstrate major warming, no change or even cooling.