There is no war in history, except those few in which the balance of power was more than ten to one (this one is perhaps, at most, about three to one, taking everything into account), that wasn’t decided by logistics and morale. That’s what warfare is. Not battles and tactics, but logistics and morale. Ukraine’s losses are large (and Russia’s even larger), but a tiny fraction of their military age population. There’s no evidence for the doom you’ve been spouting since the beginning.
Forecasts of inevitable doom are the same as they’ve always been - wild guesses based on a misunderstanding of how war works.
EDIT: Ukraine has retaken more than 50% of the land area Russia took initially. Your data is wrong.
Ultimately, the major countries in the EU need to remember that they are still sovereign countries unto themselves, and say, “Screw you, Orban, we’re doing this as France, England and Germany, not the EU.”
If Orban wants to start a war over this, then by all means, we can divert 1% of the munitions towards bombing the shit out of him, too.
Which it has already done and continues to do despite of how obvious that damage was going to be from the outset. Russia is demographically doomed, anyway, and has been stripped of whatever industry was left from the Soviet era, so despite massive reserves of natural resources it is basically on its way to collapse of the federated government and breakup of its many ethnic enclaves into warlord-polities. As long as Putin is in charge (and even after he is replaced, if by another ‘strongman’ leader, which is almost certain because the Russians value strength and power over ‘fairness’ or egalitarianism) Russia will continue to throw bodies and materiel into the grinder until they run out of one or both.
That being said, the Ukrainians have a cultural memory of living under Soviet repression which has now been reinforced by the more abuses, and it is clear that as long as there is a functional Ukrainian government that they will fight down to the last shell, drone, grenade, bullet, and sharp stick. That the war has ground down into a literal morass was entirely predictable to students of history, but since the counteroffensive the badly outnumbered and ostensibly outgunned Ukrainians have held their own, and will continue to do so as long as they have weapons and aid, because the alternative is eradication of their country by a two-bit ‘Rat Boy’ hood with delusions of grandeur and a demonstrated taste for war crimes against young and old alike.
The EU is learning the hard way why unanimity is a bad idea, and NATO will soon learn that as well (specifically, requiring unanimity to let any new member nation in).
As the primary purpose of NATO is a collective defense pact, it really doesn’t make a lot of sense to allow a majority of members to approve a prospective new partner which another member nation may adamantly oppose. It can create schisms within the current membership, which is enough of a problem already.
I assume you are elliptically referring to allowing Ukraine into NATO membership, which would then obligate the other NATO states to come to its aid under Article 5, not only with materiel or humanitarian aid but direct action against Russia. This probably seems like something that the (mostly) democratic West should do, but the consequence would be a continental European war against a nuclear armed adversary, and again likely schisms by certain NATO members refusing to act in plausible fear of being the target of a retaliatory response. As bad and painful as the Ukrainian conflict is, it is confined (right now) to being peer war between two independent nations, and one in which Ukraine is capable of holding the ostensibly more powerful Russia to a standstill, provided that they receive support and materiel to continue. A broader conflict could easily spiral out of control with both sides projecting an existential threat and escalating the conflict accordingly. The time to have offered Ukraine membership in NATO was following the Crimean annexation, or even before; now it is just a provocation to a wider war.
Imho there is a very definitive and final way for Ukraine to win this war.
There must be at least a 1000 retired F-16 pilots from International countries. Men who combat trained for decades and never saw war. Never fired a real missile at another plane.
We’re sending billions in aid to Ukraine.
Why not recruit F-16 pilots at 350k each? Plus 500k death payout for their families. These men were willing to fight and potentially die for a 75k Air Force pay check.
I think many men would like to test their decades of training. Do I have what it takes at 48 years old? A lot of men would jump at the chance to leave money and college funding for their familes.
@LSLGuy How long would it take a experienced F-16 pilot to get checked out on a plane? Build a squadron, fly formations, and practice aerial combat manuevers? Maybe 4 to 6 months?
500 F-16’s would be superior to Russia’s Air Force.
They’re trying to push inexperienced Ukrainians into these cockpits. They can’t compete against a man with 2000 flight hours in a F-16.
Give Ukraine air superiority and Russian ground troops will have to withdraw.
Genius! You should call up Lloyd Austin and Frank Kendall to lay out your plan immediately! There are absolutely no issues that you have overlooked or don’t understand!
Wars are more often decided by which country is more committed to the conflict than which country has more manpower.
Look at Vietnam. The United States had over three times Vietnam’s population. There were about ten times as many Vietnamese casualties as there were American casualties. But it was the Americans who withdrew from the war.
And that right there is the sole thing that gives me hope for Ukraine. The Russians have a home to go back to if they capitulate in Ukraine. The Ukrainains don’t have a home to go back to if they capitulate in Ukraine.
-The culture of lies inevitable for a long-term dictatorship like Putin (meaning that everyone lies to their superiors)
-Similarly, the culture of grift endemic to the Russian military (and probably broader Russian society)
-The industrial might of Europe and the US assisting Ukraine (even if the US were to stop for political reasons, European industry is far superior to Russian industry in the long term even without the US)
I got so excited that I’m ready to sign up.
Would be nice if I learned to fly first.
Seriously, why waste such a valuable resource? Why should highly trained fighter pilots be denied the opportunity to earn a damn good living? They sacrificed and trained hard for so many years. Now they have to sell insurance in Des Moines Iowa? I’m sure it’s beautiful there but it ain’t combat.
England recruited Yank Pilots, the famous Eagle Squadrons. China had the Flying Tigers in Burma.
Why can’t Ukraine have Zelenskiy’s Raiders?
Restrict it to Conventional armaments and missiles. Avoid Nuke escalation.
btw is the rule still two or three Wings makes a Squadron?
Need airstrips in Ukraine and missile squadrons, air defense squadrons, aircraft maintenance squadrons, security forces squadrons. Ukraine has some of it and needs more.
Definitely need a Lieutenant general, several experienced Colonels and tough First Sergeants to pull a base together. The Air Force has the best Firsts in the world. That was my dad’s last duty assignment after Vietnam.
Forget the Major General. Can’t drag him off the golf course.
How many are still combat-rated? How many could have a legitimate shot at regaining a combat rating with a few months of training?
In all seriousness, if a significant fraction of them are the moral equivalent of Randy Quaid’s crazy ex-pilot in Independence Day, well, that works OK in a movie, but perhaps not so well IRL, with the Gs and speed that actual fighter combat entails.
Seems to me an equally good approach would be to donate the entire A-10 Warthog fleet since the USAF has been looking to divest itself of it for a while, along with the old F-15Cs. Basically, anything America was going to send to the boneyard. And in response to AcePlace57, I recall reading somewhere that some retired fighter pilots had indeed said they were willing to volunteer to fly F-16s for Ukraine, it’s just that their nation’s laws wouldn’t permit them to.
Russia can still win this war. It will take them far longer than they expected and cost them far more in blood and treasure, but a win is still a win. They won the Winter War with Finland, too, in the end.
Btw, I agree, a Air Squadron I dreamed up with retired F-16 pilot’s wouldn’t stand a chance against a experienced NATO force.
They don’t have to be the World’s best to defend Ukraine and force a Russian withdrawal.
The mission is to take out the Russian Air Defense systems inside Ukraine and gain Air Superiority. Make it very difficult for Russian ground forces to operate.
Some Russian Migs would be ordered to join the fight and the F-16’s are better planes. The biggest risk is from air defense missiles.
I won’t bore anyone further. I understand there’s no World leader that would dare to irritate Putin. He might push the big red button just for fun. The threat of being wiped out himself doesn’t bother him. I can’t help but remember mutual annihilation worked during the Cold War. Neither side was that stupid.
But, lets continue discussing Ukraine’s future and what could happen during this stalemate and changing levels of International support.
I don’t think there’s any real danger that the entirety of Ukraine will be overrun by Russian mass. If that were possible it would have happened 20 months ago when Russia was at peak strength, morale, and resources.
I do think there is a chance that Ukraine reaches a point where they realize they don’t have enough people and resources to move the current line of contact by much. No country is a bottomless well of resources. Especially if the West continues this infuriating habit of providing support in drips and drops of old castoff equipment, rather than a sufficient mass of the specific resources needed to make a difference.
Someone that that has flown an F-16 15 years before, might be able to get used to the newer avionics and glass cockpit, than someone that has never flown that plane.
They would know much about how to fly the airplane except the radars and missiles. The way that you would take out distant aircraft. Shoot and scoot. They can do ground attack. Though, I think somewhat limited.
Let the F-16s clear the skies, and bring in A-10s (but we have given up on them I guess).
Of course we have the entire problem with we can’t let American pilots fly these against Russian forces, which would be tantamount to declaring war on Russia. So that’s a bit of a problem.
What a mess.
Watched a Movie tonight. “Leave the world Behind”. Some very good acting and writing, and some that is pretty bad. Made me wonder if the director walked off and they had to do a quick re-write of the script.
Something stuck with me though. Near the very end, and I paraphrase “They start the war, and we end up finishing ourselves with internal struggles.” That, IMHO, is happening right now.
I watched several documentaries on the Korean War. Multiple US veteran combat pilots all insisted there was Russian spoken on the comms. The Chinese MiGs had very experienced Russian pilots in the seats. They were a handful for our Vets to fight.
Why does the world tremble in fear at the Russian Nuclear bluff?
I linked two examples of the best Russian Theatre. Scare the BEJESUS out of the Western leaders.
What happened afterwards? Did Nukes go off? Of course not, Premier Khrushchev was angry, and NOT Suicidal.
Are you aware of what Khrushchev did to Kennedy? He went into a summit totally unprepared and it went quite badly.
The Russian’s have been getting away with this crap for far too long. It’s time for NATO leaders to stiffen their spines and grow a pair.
