Is their a danger that Ukraine could eventually be overwhelmed by the vastly larger population of Russia?
It happened to Hitler in Berlin. All that was left to fight were WWI vets and Hitler Youth. The Soviet forces ate them alive.
Could it happen again in Kiev?
This defense of Ukraine is finished if or whenever the International community stops supporting them.
I guess it is too important and crucial a question for breaking news.
Trumps in Putin’s pocket. Always has been. The Republicans can’t wait to dump aid to Ukraine.
A lot of very brave people are getting blown apart by mines and dying everyday because of bullshit Politics.
So does Kiev have a chance in hell of surviving this war?
In a war of attrition Russia will win. We saw it happen in WWII where they took colossal losses but kept going.
The question is, will the Russian people be willing to accept those losses these days? (I have no doubt Putin will happily spend those lives if he can.)
Incorrect.
To make sure you understand, Breaking News threads are for breaking news and not idle conjecture. Your question is absolutely fine on its own but would have been a hijack of the breaking news thread.
Don’t keep doing this, next time I’ll have to issue a warning.
Moderating done
I understand and apologize @What_Exit
I appreciate and respect your moderation of breaking news.
Sometimes my passion and emotions get the better of me. The news last week after the Republicans snubbed Volodymyr Zelensky bothered me.
I could see it happen, but not with military means, but rather, stealthy immigration. If more and more Russians emigrated into Ukrainian soil (illegally) and proved difficult to deport or eject, they could take over more of the eastern side of Ukraine. The problem, though, is that most Russian civilians wouldn’t want to be one of the migrants assigned to such a mission.
Getting back to the OP, nowadays, military technology and logistics matters a lot more than population. No matter how many Russian soldiers come into Ukraine, as long as the Ukrainians can keep wrecking their supplies of food, fuel, ammo, etc., they’re not going to achieve anything.
In WWII the colossal losses were necessary to save Russia itself from conquest and subjugation by the Nazis, with all the horrors that would imply. They really had no other choice.
In Ukraine, despite the blathering about Nazis, the stakes are orders of magnitude less than WWII. It’s a war of aggrandizement, not an existential struggle for survival. Granted, the Russian population’s access to the truths of the war are limited by the state (though returning wounded could be getting the word out), but I suspect there’d be a limit to just how colossal the country’s losses could be that Putin couldn’t push beyond. Look at how many thousands of army-eligible men fled while they could, even early in the conflict.
I’ve been reading about the stolen Ukrainian children. It goes far beyond cruelty.
Russia is stealing the next generation of Ukrainians and making them Russian.
Ukrainian Social institutions like museums and architecture, music, theatre, language are suppressed in the occupied areas.
I read a couple weeks ago that Ukrainian medical care in occupied areas requires the person to apply for Russian documents.
Systematically wiping out health care is another way Russia is promoting genocide. That opens up the area for Russian immigration.
I agree.Smaller weapons like drones are very effective at suppressing Russian troops before they can get too organized.
A recent report says Russia has already lost 87% of the trained forces they used for invasion. It took many years to build and equip that force.
Link https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html
Russia is using very poorly trained and equipped troops now. The experienced officer corps have to be at a breaking point.
There’s always a danger that a brilliant commander will rise from obscurity. It happened in the Civil War with Generals Grant and Sherman. Who’s that guy and why is Atlanta burning?
Russia might have someone similar but their Military mindset is too bureaucratic to recognize strategic potential in a young commander. It’s not healthy to be ambitious and smart in Russia.
Russia may have a “large” population, but that’s because it has the biggest land mass of any nation on Earth. By population density, it ranks 232nd among countries and dependencies. Moreover, it’s a population in demographic crisis. For 20 years from 1992 to 2012, Russia’s death rate exceeded its birth rate. Things stabilized briefly in the mid-2010s, but since 2020 Russia’s population has undergone its largest peacetime decline in recorded history. Russia simply isn’t in a position to send waves of immigrants into Ukraine to displace Ukrainians, certainly not without doing massive harm to their own society and economy.
ISTM the question isn’t so much “How fast are the Russians depleting their supply of their own people?”
It’s “How fast are the Russians depleting the supply of Ukrainians?” Whether by killing them, annexing them, kidnapping them, or simply causing them to emigrate to the rest of the West to escape the never-ending conflict and economic mess at home.
For very round numbers, pre-war Russia had 150M people and pre-war Ukraine had 30M. So about 5 to 1.
As long as Russia can steal, kill, or force out, 1 Ukrainian for every 5 Russians killed or defected, the Russians will win. Eventually. Obviously modern nations don’t fight to the last man standing. Their economy collapses first. Which Ukraine’s already probably would have done but for Western support.
Ukraine’s brave and capable military will fold shortly after the West quits sending money and munitions. Leaving nothing but a rump force of guerillas and partisans behind to try to slow the continuous flow of Russians onto their territory.
If the West is so feckless as to allow that, I will be very disappointed. But not in the least surprised.
IIRC (recent radio show I listened to, no cite) the EU is hamstrung by Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban who is demanding all sorts of awful concessions to allow the EU to support Ukraine. EU requires unanimous support so Orban can mess it all up and is doing so.
The US recently passed a military budget and there is very little in it for Ukraine. Certainly far, far below what is needed for them to continue fighting in a robust manner.
Feckless it is (although things may change).
ETA: I found this:
Ultimately the EU will have to find the 'nads to retroactively change their rules to say that the interests, opinions, and actions, of any dictators or wanna-be among their members are simply to be ignored.
The US Congress and Executive could usefully adopt that rule too.
Better hurry though.
This has already been a strong factor in the war since the start, not to mention it’s central to how Russians fight their wars and defend held territories - they throw large numbers of people at them. And not only does it have the potential to influence the war further, I’d wager it already started having an impact, one not in Ukraine’s favor.
That will be the most likely outcome. Ukraine isn’t desperate enough to fight to the very last man.
They spent over 60 years attached to the Soviet Union. It wasn’t the end of the world. It ended Ukrainian culture, freedom and personal liberty. The initial take over would be genocidal because anyone educated and free willed is a threat to the regime. They have to flee, get indoctrinated, or die.
Ukraine enriched the Soviets through mining and massive industrial capacity. Putin wants that capacity again to rebuild the Russian empire.
They may well be that desperate.
But you can’t fight a modern army, even the shambolic Russian one, with sharp sticks. With no bullets and no explosives there’s no (meaningful) defense.
The kicker is Ukraine gave up its nukes after the Soviet Union collapsed with a promise they’d be left alone.
The message is clear…get nukes and keep nukes no matter what.
The title of the thread makes it sound like you are asking about the numbers of the civilian population.
But the second sentence ,about Berlin and Hitler, seems like you are talking about the numbers of soldiers left to fight. It’s true that Germany did run out of men of military age. (in the final days of fighting as Berlin fell, most of the German fighters were teenagers and old men )
And I think the same thing is beginning now in Ukraine.
Russia can fight for several more years before it runs out of canon fodder.
There are two russias–only about 75% of the population are ethnic Russians.
The other quarter of the population are from other ethnic groups with different cultures. That’s about 35 million people–the same as the entire population of Ukraine. And Putin is perfectly happy to draft them all, and sacrifice all of them to die in combat.
So, to answer the thread title…yes, I think there is a very real danger that Ukraine will be overwhelmed and lose the war, because of the vastly larger population of Russia.
I sadly predicted a year ago that Russia would win, and I am afraid now that I
may have been correct.
You’ve been doom and gloom since the beginning, without evidence. Just like you were doom and gloom about the 2020 election. Sacrificing cannon fodder won’t win anyone the war. Russia hasn’t gained significant territory in over a year.
Your predictions are nothing but wild guesses.
Russia also hasn’t lost any territory in over a year.
But Ukraine has lost a lot of assets. Major cities flattened (Bachkmut , Avdivka), and tens of thousand of men, who cannot be replaced as easily as Russia can replace its men. (you claim I have no evidence…but see the links in my post above).
This is no longer a classic war between organized armies, where the logistics and morale win major battles till one side surrenders.
This is a war of attrition.
And when facing death from from a thousand cuts, the bigger side can outlast the smaller one.