I agree that there is currently very little prospect for changing copyright law, mostly because there are lots of very wealthy powerful corporations who believe they have a vested interest in keeping the current law.
I’m looking ahead.
My advocacy for changing copyright law is not based on greed, and I wish you’d stop saying so. After all I could, if I wanted to, download any damn thing I want RIGHT NOW. Nothing is stopping me. So therefore, if I were a greedy bastard who just wanted free music and movies, why should I care what the law says? Why should I advocate for a change in the law when I can get anything I want for free today? The law isn’t unenforceable because Discordia choses to violate it. It’s unenforceable because when Discordia does violate it nothing bad happens to him. And even if you convince Discordia not to violate the law, there are still hundreds of millions of people left to convince, including people in India and China.
And this is the point. It’s already available for free. And your notion that we’ll come up with a foolproof method of finding and punishing copyright violators is just whistling dixie. It’s not going to happen, and even if it did, you’d have to actually prosecute the kids doing it and somehow convince them that it’s a serious crime. But they won’t believe you, because it sure doesn’t SEEM like a serious crime any more than smoking pot or underage drinking or driving over the speed limit.
It’s an uphill battle to convince people of something when it is in their selfish interest not to be convinced.
And so we try to imagine the future. Ten, twenty years down the road. When hard drive storage is even cheaper. When wireless high speed networking is even more ubiquitious. When devices more powerful than today’s iPods are so cheap they are given out in boxes of Captain Crunch cereal.
What’s going to be happening in the future? Sure, some people in rich countries who have a certain moral code will refuse to watch pirated movies and TV shows and listen to pirated music. But most people won’t care, especially in third world countries. And even for the people who DO care and refuse to violate copyright out of principle, there will be lots and lots and lots of free material available. I can watch any South Park episode I like today, all without violating copyright or downloading some mystery file. I just go to southparkstudios.com and they’ve got every episode archived there, all completely legal.
And so even under our current copyright regime, the future is that every user will gravitate towards content that is free. That content will either be free because the creator gave it away for free for some reason, or because it was pirated. So how in hell do creators get compensated for their work? If they depend on consumers paying them a fee before they can access the content, they won’t. Oh, they can offer such content for sale, but that business model won’t work. And so they’ve got to figure out different ways of making money. Running ads maybe, that’s how radio stations and weekly newspapers make money by giving out free content. Or subscription models, or Og knows what. But it isn’t going to look much of anything like today’s model, because that model is dead as the dodo, you just don’t know it because the dodo is still flapping its wings and running around. But anyone who pays attention can see that the dodo’s head has been chopped off, and the odds for sewing the head back on don’t look very good.