Historically, Presidential candidates have looked for running mates who had the power to “swing” his home state. JFK obviously picked Lyndon Johnson in the hope that he’d bring the key state of Texas along with him, just as Tom Dewey hoped Earl Warren would deliver California.
Still, recent history maes you wonder if ANY candidate can deliver his state. Lloyd BEntsen is VERY well admired here in Texas, but he didn’t get any votes for Dukakis. Jack Kemp didn’t come CLOSE to “delivering” New York for Dole.
So, this is the question: what potential Veeps for either party really COULD “deliver” their states?
I mean, I LIKE George Pataki, but I don’t know that he has the clout to win NY for Bush. I seriously doubt whether Bob Graham could win Florida for Gore.
I don’t know the climate in Pennsylvania- WOULD Tom Ridge guarantee that stae to Bush, if he were the candidate? Any Pennsylvanians with an opinion?
Mind you, I’m only concerned about “swing” states- sure, Bush would win Arizona with McCain on the ticket, but the GOP almost certainly wins Arizona with ANY Veep candidate. Are there any politicians left who are popular and powerful enough to guarantee the electoral votes of his home state?
Well, I think Zell Miller could swing Georgia to Gore. However, Miller is probably not well-known enough on the national stage to get the nod. Also, I’m not sure Georgia has enough electoral votes for Gore to make that choice. I notice, however, that James Carville has been touting Miller.
I’d say that VA Gov Jim Gilmore would guarantee a VA win for Bush. He’s well liked in the state, both up and down. Heck, in Northern VA he pretty well bought us off. “Vote for me and I’ll eliminate the car tax”, the man said. We swallowed it and HE’S DELIVERING. What a refreshing change of pace.
That said however, God would have to reach down and pull a ka-jillion voting levers for Virginia to go for Gore so GWB doesn’t exactly have to bend over backwards to carry Virginia.
Same thing for Cheney and Wyoming - it wasn’t like Gore had a prayer there anyway.
I don’t think any veep can ‘deliver’ their state, but if they’re well-liked there, they can swing the people who aren’t die-hards for one party or the other. Bob Graham could tip the balance in FL (which went Dem in '96, remember), and would certainly force Dubya to commit serious money to hanging on to it.
I think, now that Bush has picked Cheney, PA will go Dem in the end, but Ridge could’ve changed that. And there are Midwestern states (e.g. OH, IL) where, IMO, Bush picking the Republican governor as his running mate could have moved that state from a swing state to a fairly safe bet for the GOP.
But a veep candidate can’t win a state that would otherwise be a lost cause. His pull isn’t that strong.
Miller was the guy who introduced Carville to Clinton. That’s probably why Carville is recommending him, even though Miller would be a good choice. (No geographic balance, but Clinton proved that didn’t matter) Georgia went for Clinton in '92 and Dole in '96, both by only one or two percentage points.
I think that the ability of a Veep to deliver his/her home state has definitely declined in recent elections, as has that as a reason for picking a Veep.
OTOH, I think that some recent Veep picks didn’t help in the home state because they weren’t best known for their actions within the state. Ex. Jack Kemp – sure he was a congressman from Buffalo, but he didn’t have a huge impact within New York. He was best known for running for Pres himself, as well as for his strong advocacy of his political philosophy.
I think that if you want to carry a particular state, you would have to pick a popular current or former governor of that state.
Sua
Jello is right; Georgia is a state which could go either way, as evidenced by the last two elections. Zell Miller could easily make the difference in such a race. He left the Governor’s office with an 85% approval rating, and I doubt those numbers have changed.
However, the talk about Miller just got rendered moot by his appointment to fill the office of the recently deceased Senator Paul Coverdell. Miller is now planning to run in the special election for that seat in November, and would likely be unavailable as a VP candidate.
