Is there an optimal time frame to buy airline tickets?

[Crab_Rangoon]

I’m planning a vacation for this summer. Is there a “best” time frame to purchase my airplane tickets before my planned vacation dates? Best in terms of price and availability. Or is it all a crap shoot?

For instance, right now (8 months before my traveling dates), the tickets are about $550 each. Is there a benefit to waiting for a few months before purchasing?

[USCDiver]

Check again Tuesday and Wednesday. Tickets tend to be cheaper those days. Keep looking for the next few weeks and you may notice a pattern.

[Telemark]

@Crab_Rangoon

Or is it all a crap shoot?

It’s not a crap shoot, but it’s a complex calculation based on demand, capacity, and flexibility. How much flexibility on dates do you have? It goes up and down over time, not a steady trend, based on balancing long term plans versus last minute buyers.

You can put a fare watcher on the flights (using travelocity or Orbitz) and keep an eye on the changes each week.

[bizerta]

From one experience that I had, the tickets 2 months before departure were about 30% less than they were 6 months before departure. That may or may not be typical.

More than that, it depends on advance bookings. Say (for example) Chicago-Phoenix seats are typically 42% sold three months before departure. If you go online in May for August seats to PHX, the price you’re quoted will depend on how many seats have already been sold. If 68% of the seats have already been sold, the price will be higher than if 38% have been sold. Airline computer programs are pretty savvy about filling seats and getting as much as they can.

[s0meguy]

Sometimes I wonder if they raise the price based on how many people are searching for the flight in the airline’s online booking system (even if they don’t book). So the more searches, means more demand for them.

[Telemark]

@s0meguy

Sometimes I wonder if they raise the price based on how many people are searching for the flight in the airline’s online booking system (even if they don’t book). So the more searches, means more demand for them.

Yes, they even have the ability to track if you have searched for the flights and set the price for you personally.

[panache45]

Very early Wednesday morning, the best being right after midnight.

[MindsEye_Watering]

From Clark Howard’s site:

Everyday I’m asked, “What’s the best time to buy an airline ticket, and what’s the best website to do it on?” I’ve got some new answers to share with you.

The Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC), which is like the back office of ticket selling for the nation’s airlines, has monitored data continually over the last four years and found that the magic time to buy a ticket is generally six weeks before you travel.

[Duckster]

A new survey of more than a billion airfare searches has revealed the very best time to book your flight, says a spokeswoman for Kayak. Sifting through an average of 100 million queries per month from January to December 2011, the search site says fliers looking for the best prices should book exactly 21 days prior to departure.

Book in that sweet spot, Kayak says, and you’ll pay the domestic average of $342 a ticket – versus the $370 you’d pay on average for a ticket booked six months out.
For international trips, that prime booking window shifts to 34 days prior to departure, with average prices at $977 instead of $1,016 for travelers planning six months ahead.

The Very Best Time To Book Airline Tickets, According To Kayak | HuffPost Life

Cheapest Day to Fly – Wednesday

We did an in-depth study of our proprietary historical airfare database (world’s largest) and pinpointed the cheapest day to fly is **Wednesday **for domestic travel (gory details at the link).

Wednesday is one of the three cheapest days, the others are Tuesday and Saturday (Friday and Sunday the most expensive days to travel). The cheapest day to travel internationally are a bit different — we are working on this research and it should be up shortly.

The cheapest time to fly is typically the first flight out in the morning – yes, that means you have to get up at 4am. Next best times are flights during/after lunch and flights at the dinner hour (of course the absolute cheapest time to fly is on those limited routes with red eyes).

Best Time to Buy Airline Tickets – Tuesday 3pm Eastern

Another of our studies shows that the best time to buy airline tickets and shop for travel (domestically) is Tuesday at 3pm Eastern – yes shopping on Tuesday is the the best time to buy airline tickets, but be careful as most of these discounted airfare are pulled on Thursdays, so your probably paying too much if buying on the weekends.

Cheapest Days to Fly and Best Time to Buy Airline Tickets | FareCompare

[Dewey_Finn]

A few years ago, there was a website called Farecast that attempted to predict, based on past history, the optimail time to buy a ticket for a particular destination and date. The site was purchased by Microsoft and the technology is now incorporated into Bing.

[Mdcastle]

@Telemark

Yes, they even have the ability to track if you have searched for the flights and set the price for you personally.

Toss your cookies and see if the price goes down…

But seriously, buying a many months in advance isn’t the cheapest way to do it. You’ll likely pay close to the average fare since they aren’t discounting to try to fill up the plane nor gouging the people that have to fly at the last minute.

[Crab_Rangoon]

Wow - these are awesome references. Thanks! I am such a(n uptight) planner, it will be hard for me to wait until 21 days before our planned departure date to purchase tickets. I will test out the best days of the week to travel/buy tickets though.

[Dio2112]

Looks like I might be able to get an experiment done in this thread.

I came across what sounds to me like an urban legend–that if you constantly search a travel site for tickets, the site will eventually start raising the ticket price to get you to pull the trigger.

Could someone who has been doing a lot of price shopping lately do me a favor and clear cookies, or better yet open up a different browser and search for the same flight and report if there is a price drop?

[Telemark]

@Dio2112

I came across what sounds to me like an urban legend–that if you constantly search a travel site for tickets, the site will eventually start raising the ticket price to get you to pull the trigger.

It’s mentioned up thread. According to this companies are putting together all the pieces but there are legal hurdles in the US to overcome. There are many technologies at work here and the airlines are clearly headed in the direction of knowing more about you before you purchase a ticket. I don’t believe it has come into fruition yet, but it’s coming.

http://atwonline.com/it-distribution/news/future-fare-search-engines-will-know-who-you-are-0525

[Deeg]

I have worked at Expedia in the past (but not on the air search team) and I have a hard time believing the urban legend. Airline prices are a commodity and with the different sites like kayak and TripAdvisor it is simple to compare prices. Artificially raising prices to get people to pull the trigger would be counter productive.