Repeat – from the OP:
So the Cubans can get along without free trade with the U.S. – but it would make a big difference.
Which is one unusual characteristic of the Cuban situation – places like Myanmar & North Korea are also under sanctions by many other nations in and out of their regions, but with Cuba it’s an American thing.
(BTW let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, China may have instituted some “opening” policies in 1978, but in 1989 they drove tanks into Tiananmen Square, and to this day you can’t really practice your religion-of-choice. And Castro thought nothing of throwing 75 writers and journalist into jail back c. 2000 for signing a petition for a national dialog with the opposition. They are both repressive dictatorships where you have such “rights” as the Party says you do and life is Hell if you rub them the wrong way. BUT one of them has 1.2 billion people, a growing industrial manufacturing base, money in the bank, and nukes.)
BTW, re: “at the vanguard of an American Army” – well, they don’t really think it’ll be literally like that as that they very much expect that when the communist regime falls, we will put our weight behind having them be the ones who take over, will provide much support for their “liberation movement” and will back their claims re: restitution, compensation, reparation and the earlier mentioned “settling” of non-economic “accounts”, based on the repeated rhetoric from the US side. Of course, the embargo and the overt American hostility provides Fidel a priceless excuse for claiming that there can be no liberalization because that would make them vulnerable to the nefarious American plans. So HE doesn’t really mind it that much either…
And of course, 3 out of 4 Google Ads are pitching you to DO business with Cuba…
It’s a communist country. The only reason it’s staying afloat is because of lots of tourism, person-to-person transfers from the US, feeding off stockpiled money (possibly), and endebting itself to foreign nations. Dumping money in it is putting money in a black hole. So long as Castro wants to keep it a communist state, you’ve got the same effect as blowing a few billion on cocaine for your moll. And given that money, I have no reason to believe that the life quality will improve to any amount above the minimum to allow Castro to remain in power–which they’re probably at now. So as said, it will go into a stockpile until the next emergency at best.
At the moment, they have essentially the same life expectancy and literacy rate as the US, at a fraction the cost. What more do you want? The only thing they’re particularly missing is cheer and cars not in a 50s style.
And giving them money for business will just make life harder in the future when you have to privatise everything, when up until that point everything had been running from the same piggy bank. With less money, no one much cares how you split it up–or even just scrap it for something new.
And again, we’re talking the very best outcome. There’s still always the chance that you drop the embargo and suddenly the entire country does a mass exodus, war breaks out, Castro reverse embargoes us, Castro lobs over a missile to thank us, or who-knows-what.
And are you sure you really want W. Bush to be the guy to handle our side of this? :eek:
How bad are Cuban human rights violations and how poor is its economy compared to other islands in the area?
I dissent from the notion that China has made significant strides in human rights. From Amnesty International
Of course, the right discredits AI since they dare criticize the US. China has found that it’s good business to have the appearance of becoming more tolerant while continuing with their old ways. My guess is once the Olympics are safely over, they’ll drop the pretense of progress.
Castro is by no means the only despot in the world, but he got the embargo for embracing the USSR and keeps it after the Cold War because of the exiles in Florida continuing to use their electoral clout to keep the staus quo.
You seem to be reasoning from some false assumptions here, Sage. Communism works. It might not work as well as capitalism in terms of productivity, but it works. (It was Stalin’s brutal methods that transformed Russia from an agrarian state to an industrialized one capable of going toe-to-toe with Germany – and I seriously doubt that could have happened if Russia had had a free-market system during that period.) A given Communist system or state is not automatically doomed to collapse – it could endure indefinitely.
And that day might never come. Even if the Communist Party’s dictatorship ends, even if a multiparty democracy is established, the Cuban people are probably going to want to freely choose socialism in some form or other.
Cite?
“What bad thing would happen if we dropped the embargo right now?”
Serious answer? It would be a win for Castro, it would legitimize his rule, and the rule of those who would attempt to rule after he’s gone.
If you dropped the embargo while Castro still rules Cuba you would weaken the frorces for reform, increase the likelyhood that Castro’s dictatorship will survive Castro.
The bottom line is that nobody wants to give Castro a victory. He’s an old man and he’ll die soon, that’s the time to drop the embargo.
The Soviet victory in WWII – which could never have been achieved without the Allies’ help, but, conversely, the Allies could never have defeated Hitler without Soviet help.
State Communism is very good at “heavy capital formation.” It is not so good at fine-tuning an economy – for that you really need the on-the-ground feedback of market forces. And I don’t propose to defend the justice of Communism. But Communism, such as it is, is a system on which a durable national industrial economy can be based. The collapse of the Soviet bloc is not automatically proof of the contrary; there were a lot of factors in play there, including many kinds of pressure applied by the West, and the discontentment of non-Russians with being ruled by a Russian empire of any ideology, and general public disillusionment with the system. There is not so much disillusionment in Cuba, so far as we can tell.
So what?
BrainGlutton- just so as you know: Wikipedia is a wonderful source- except in cases where much controversy reigns. And Cuba is certainly one of those cases.
From all evidence that I have ever seen, based on he doings-of and general lifespan of all communist nations as real communist nations; if communism works, it is by far the least successful slave labor economy. Plantations made a profit doing the same thing where communist nations end up having to strain every resource just to keep food distributed properly.
And Uncle Toms just slept with the owner’s wife, the Communist equivalents have not had a good history of being so caring of human rights.
Agreed. I will gladly read contrary information from other sources. I just used Wikipedia as a starting point. But I think it’s probably a reliable source as you will find on such basic stuff as Cuba’s estimated GDP.
Well, I know one field where Cuba really shines is health care. Cuban doctors are very much in demand. They’re even helping out the Venezuelans right now. Cuban Doctors in Venezuela Operate Free Neighborhood Clinics | Venezuelanalysis.com
But of course GDP in Cuba is a controversial political figure. You can estimate such things, communist dictatorships have a vested interest in cooking the books, don’t they? In open societies such things are very difficult to hide, but a communist dictatorship neccesarily has the tools to keep reporters and economists and NGOs and other such busybodies from sticking their noses where they’re not wanted.
So when Castro’s communist dictatorship proudly announces their high literacy rates and universal health care, perhaps a bit of caution is in order before believing such things. All dictatorships have an interest in hiding bad news, but the ideological character of a communist dictatorship makes it especially prone to hiding bad news.
You’ve answered your own question: “it would make a big difference”. I see no reason to help Castro out.
What about the Cuban people?
In my admittedly non-expert opinion, the embargo is probably helping Castro to stay in power. He now has a ready made excuse for any failings of his government - rather than have to admit he’s in error, he can blame all difficulties on el Yanquis.
The Cuban people are tough and smart, and they’ve held on this long. A little longer hardly matters, and if/when Cuba opens up, it’s to be hoped that all will go well there.