Yeah, I agree. Like I said earlier, his handlers and the GOP would be fools to let him debate her on live TV, but The Donald isn’t going to miss an opportunity to be live on TV, and I’m pretty sure he is absolutely convinced he will mop the floor with her (and probably say YOU ARE FIRED! at the end :p).
I dunno. I can also see, “You know what kind of people HAVE to debate? Losers!”
Anyway, would he see it as backing out? Had he already committed to debate, or is it just an assumption that the Republican nominee will debate?
This bears remembering, especially for those of us who remember the Bush-Gore debates, which everyone thought Bush would come out of looking like a stammering monkey and instead managed to be reasonably direct and articulate. I am past the point of trying to predict how Trump will perform, but if he can pull off a reasonable facsimile of a normal politician, he’ll surprise a lot of people and earn himself a lot of positive coverage (while the press goes on about Clinton’s “schoolmarmish” demeanor and speaking voice).
Won’t he get it anyway? Stories about him not debating will take up as much air time as him actually debating.
He’s skipped debates before, so it’s not impossible. But I think he will go to all the presidential ones.
I agree with Nonsuch that he doesn’t actually have to outperform Hillary, he has to outperform expectations. Which seems odd for a debate but people are really watching to firm up their opinion of the candidates, not to choose between them. If Hillary wipes the floor with Trump, but Trump manages to sound halfway reasonable and Clinton comes off like the annoying elementary school principal*, the debate will improve Trumps poll numbers.
So Trump doesn’t need to skip the debates. He just needs to show up and impress his followers and be slightly less of a blowhard. I can understand why people don’t think he can do that, but remember again that all of his speeches to date have been to crowds of his supporters, not to the independents. I think it’s dangerous to underestimate his ability to modulate for his audience.
I still think Hillary will do better, because she has the ability to actually answer a question and not blow past the time limit. But I don’t think it would be wise to bash on Trump and assume he’s toast. The Dems fell into that trap with the Kerry-Bush election.
- I still dislike you, Mrs. Blackburn.
I’m convinced he’ll avoid all questions, constantly saying, “You’re a crook! You should be in jail! Your husband too!”
And then Hillary can counter with, “How’s the Trump University lawsuit going, Donny?” Followed by a Trumpy Wumpy rage, ripping microphone off podium after it’s turned off, storming out of the room, spoutiing, “They won’t even let me speak!” next followed by the GOP stating, “We’re dropping his candidacy. We’re going with [popular looney] instead.”
Trump quote concerning the debates, from a Washington Post interview:
Says it all, really.
All of that seems to ignore the debates he’s already performed in. I hate the guy, but even I have to admit he does reasonably well in a debate, especially in a short-answer debate format that favors name-calling over substantive policy explanations.
And, yes, he will surely complain that he was treated unfairly during the debate, even when he’s claiming that he won it in the very next breath.
Overall, my expectation is that there will be debates and that he will continue to impress his current base without doing much to win over anyone else.
I think it’s challenging to “win” a debate, but not challenging at all to just tread water. Remember Pain? She memorized a handful of mini speeches and tried to whip out the most relevant one in response to any question. She didn’t win the debate, but she didn’t look as foolish as everyone assumed she would.
Maybe Trump isn’t as trainable as Palin was and can’t pull this off, but I don’t think actually debating has nearly disastrous consequences as dodging the debates would be; Clinton would spend weeks talking about how Trump is scared to debate, and he would absolutely not be able to resist responding in his typically self immolating style. He may get the number of debates knocked down, but there will be debates.
Exactly! Hell, refusing to debate will probably get him MORE air time than showing up.
Here’s why he shouldn’t debate (from his pov) [pasted from the Khan thread]:
I disagree that Khan’s [possessive. In the quote, the poster uses an apostrophe to create a plural, which you much never do, because every time someone does that, a puppy dies. The second appearance of the family’s name should have been Khans’] remarks constituted an attack on Trump, but be that as it may, all Hillary has to do is make a couple of incendiary, provocative statements and watch him go off like a Roman candle. He won’t be able to resist. To him, any criticism is an attack.
What SHE needs to to is just light the fuse, step back, and NOT try to shout him down or take any of *his *bait. Not sure *she *can resist.
“Trainable”? Do you think Trump would actually let anyone train/coach him before the debates? And if he did, would he stick to the guidelines that were given to him? As I recall, he doesn’t even read a teleprompter very well.
Yeah, this is my feeling as well. Palin realized she was outclassed, and tried to prepare and compensate accordingly. Trump thinks he’s The Best At Debates. Why would he change his strategy, when he knows he has the best strategies?
I don’t disagree. Just saying that it is absolutely possible for him to debate Hillary Clinton and not look like an ass if this is something he actually tries to do.
I say no. Trump will drop out either this week or next.
Why? I don’t see the downside, unless something changes really dramatically and he’s winning.
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Assuming Clinton continues to maintain a small lead, the debate is to the advantage of the person who’s losing. They are late in the race and there’s no difference between losing 320-218 or losing 538-0. You might as well try something that could swing things in your favor, and a debate is that.
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I simply do not buy the notion Clinton would stomp him. Of course she is vastly superior in her command of the issues, to an extent unprecedented in the history of Presidential elections. That is not, however, necessarily relevant. What matters is looking and sounding Presidential. The expectations for Trump in a debate will be abysmal; people will be surprised if he shows up with his jacket on forward and doesn’t try to eat his podium. If he can stay on message, get in a zinger, and just sound confident and controlled, he can win the debate, even if his ideas are vacuous.
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Backing out of the debate would unquestionably lose his votes. Some devoted Trumpists will not care because it was unfair! but some voters would definitely see it as cowardly. He won’t WIN any votes or glory by ducking out.
First debate is scheduled Sept. 26th. In normal politics, a whole lot of time. In current politics, crazy as a duck on acid.
One of the biggest problems for reasoning people is our dependence upon it. In a thundershitstorm of crazy, like we got now, reason is about as useful as a salad fork for bailing out a sinking lifeboat.
Reason isn’t going to help the Pubbie leadership much. There may be a fine line between batshit and bug-eyed crazy, but who cares? Go ahead, pick one and give me sane and rational reasons why.
The ever-reasonable Josh Marshall, over at Talking Points Memo,
thinks the Pubbie leadership will review the legal and logistical problems in forcing a change, and will decide to stick with Trump as the least ghastly alternative. That is an entirely reasonable speculation. Its also nuts.
About the only approach to reasonable alternative would be Trump doing a Full Cartman…“Fuck you guys, I’m going home!”…because his campaign is too tiresome and boring. So, he leaves, blaming no one but himself. And Hillary. It would be a sensible, reasonable, and selfless gesture. So, that’s out.
Because having Trump stay on message and not blow up like a big bear is going to be really, really tough. This is a guy who yelled at a baby and blew up at a gold star family, insulting them and over reacting because the father of a dead soldier had the temerity to ask Trump if he’d ever read the constitution. I would have to think that there are at least some sane Republicans who can see that allowing this guy on stage with Clinton would be a really, really bad idea.
As for 3 I don’t think he will back out…I’m pretty sure he will insist they have the scheduled debates. You are right, however, that it’s the same to lose close as to be blown out, and since the die seems to be cast wrt this bozo representing the Republicans, and since it looks like his chances to win slide backwards every day that he talks or tweets, he might as well go out with a bang and do the debates with Clinton. I have to say that I will almost certainly watch them, even though I expect them to be extremely awkward and uncomfortable…but sometimes you just have to watch the train go crashing off the cliff in slow motion to get the full effect of the disaster.
If this actually happens, you should start up a stock buying newsletter.
Didn’t he do badly in the primary after the Republican debate that he skipped?
Trump did fairly well in the Republican debates, but the Republican candidates had a lot less room to attack him on. They couldn’t go too much after him talking about immigrants or Muslims since a lot of them have said similar things, though maybe in a somewhat more polite way. They were more limited in attacking him on how rude he is. Cruz couldn’t go after Trump for talking about a wall since Cruz also said he’d have a wall built, and was also trying to win over Trump supporters who liked the idea of a wall.
Clinton however can go after specific things he’s said, and can also go after policies that he and the Republican party support. She has a lot more room to attack him and that should help her a lot. I wouldn’t say she’ll stomp him, but just because he did well in the Republican debates doesn’t mean that he’ll do well in the general election debates.
It wouldn’t be worth the e-paper it’s printed on. But I think a Trump dropout is a real possibility if not probability. He seems to be under enormous physical and mental stress and he seems to have reached his limit. I think that doctor who said he is in the best shape in the history of the universe will sign off on declaring him unfit for electoral combat.