I’ll keep this one simple*: Trump will weasel out of debating Biden this month, since Trump and those in his circle know that doing so would be grossly to his disadvantage. Here are the basic reasons:
Trump got trounced in the debates in 2020. He’s a beaten and thereby conditioned dog that has no desire for more of that pain.
Trump was at least president, then, however. This time, he will face Biden as the 2020 loser, which status will cause Trump to experience a number of disadvantages that he absolutely can’t stand (e.g., Biden being called “Mr. President” by the moderator again and again).
Trump knows that he will be pummeled with all of the bad stuff that has come about since 2020, such as January 6, the felony conviction, etc.
Trump is in severe cognitive decline, and although he is in denial of this fact, he knows on some level that he will not be up to the task. Those around him definitely know.
Trump also perceives that the debate format is a terrible way to present his current posturing (rage, resentment, accusations, conspiracy theories, etc.), whereas it’s an excellent way for Biden to present his accomplishments and plans going forward. There is zero upside for Trump.
Trump, in the way that an animal of the forest can sense trouble, knows that a fuckton of shit is coming down and will continue to come down on him throughout the month, and, as poor the shape as he currently is in to debate, he will be in even poorer shape by 6/27.
Thus, there is a zeeero percent chance Trump debates Biden. He’ll make one of his typical nonsense excuses, and that will be that.
What do you think? Does anyone here believe he will actually do it?! Thanks in advance for your replies!
While those are all valid reasons any sane candidate would try their best to bail, this is Trump we’re talking about. His massive ego will lead the way, and he will convince himself that he is invincible.
I agree with the premise, although what I bet will happen is that at the last moment he’ll demand any number of changes to debate format that favor him unilaterally, which will be declined, and then he’ll claim that the debate was “rigged” against him, and he walked away as it was SO UNFAIR.
So once again, he’ll get to have his cake (the publicity) and get to eat it too (not having to compete fairly). He’ll then offer to debate anytime, as long as it’s with a friendly-to-him mediator and his rules. Which, Biden, not being an idiot, won’t give into. So he gets to win again.
And no one on this side will believe he’s getting away with it, and his PR flacks (FOX et al) will publish the BS unchallenged, so no one on his side will believe anything else.
I’m going to disagree. The simple reason is that Trump is such a pathological narcissist and so subsumed by the Dunning-Kruger-fueled impression of his own brilliance that his tiny brain simply cannot engage in the kind of analysis you just outlined.
In his tiny mind, all he knows – and all he needs to know – is that his usual bag of tricks that always work with his acolytes will work in the debate(s). First, project energy and boundless confidence. Second, loudly proclaim your memorized talking points and continue to proclaim them no matter what questions are asked.
He’s not worried about difficult questions – he’ll just ignore them like he always does, continue to bluster and bloviate, and energetically pump his imaginary accordion. He’s absolutely convinced that this is a guaranteed winning strategy, and with a significant sector of low-information imbeciles, it is.
I agree that he won’t debate Biden, but he’ll insist it’s the fault of Biden and all Democrats. He’ll make himself the good guy for walking away. Like this:
I agree that he can’t think his way to such a conclusion, but he can feel his way to it. Plus, the people around him will be pushing him in the direction of not debating.
If we’re talking about Trump from Escalator 2015 to 1/6/2021, then I agree. The difference is that now, owing to different circumstances (e.g., losing the election, incurring tons of indictments, going through a grueling trial, etc.) and a different physical condition (older with rapidly accelerating dementia), Trump is a beat-up piece of shit at this point. He can’t allow himself to think the words, “I will fail in the debate,” but he will have an instinctive sense that it ain’t gonna go his way.
I don’t actually think that Trump is feeling good and confident right now.
Trump in particular and the GOP members of Congress in general are terrified that the Joe Biden from the State of the Union will show up and hand them their asses. This is why they have been pushing the narrative that Biden is clearly on Adderall or some other drugs to make him energetic, coherent and on point.
DJT has already suggested both candidates submit to drug tests in advance. I expect Biden’s refusal will be the reason Trump will refuse to participate.
Or I would buy what @Monty suggests above as plausible.
The “Mr. President” thing is gonna bug the crap out of him.
I see that sticking in his crawl.
If somehow he can’t get out of it under his own narrative and does debate.
He’ll win. In his mind. The polls will say he lost but no matter, they’re rigged.
He’ll scream it to the heavens. The story will grow and grow daily.
Of course the magas will believe him. They’re not gonna watch and see him screwing up, Wrestling is on that night and Jr. And Fats are bringing a case of beer over.
Fox will tell them all they wanna hear.
Don’t forget, assuming for the moment Tan the Convictman actually does the debate, how he will freak out immediately and spectacularly the instant Mister President refers to the convictions.
For one thing, Trump will never agree to a mute button on the microphones, so there can be no interupting. Trump’s go-to debate strategy is to interrupt and talk over his opponent. Without that, he’s got nothing.
I hope you’re right. I’d love to be proved wrong. But it was only about a month or two ago that Trump was taunting Biden to debate, saying he’d meet him “any time, anywhere”. The only thing that’s really changed since then is that of the many legal threats he’s had hanging over him, one has come crashing down on him. And he was probably forewarned that it was likely. I predict he’ll show up and wave his arms around, playing his marvelous invisible accordion. I do hope I’m wrong. Of course he won’t say a single damn thing that scores any points, and will say a lot that will be the subject of mockery later on, but that won’t matter to the audience he caters to, who aren’t even listening to the words.
I’d love for Biden to be able to play the video of Trump’s 2016 speech where he warned of immeasurable catastrophe to America if Hillary was elected president, because she might be indicted, and that would be a constitutional crisis! Or Biden should at least quote the relevant parts to the orange hypocrite.