I don’t think it’s clear cut. The House “shall have the sole Power of Impeachment”. There’s no qualifications on that. And the Senate has “Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States”. Disqualification is a meaningful punishment for someone not in office.
It would be litigated in court, of course, but the House could argue that no one has standing to challenge their impeachments, since only the Senate may choose not to convict.
He has about 1/4 of the population in his grip. They listen only to him. Any Republican who does not lick his boots will be primaried. If they have any morals, they have a choice of abandoning them or losing their seats. As long as there are at least 33 Republicans who value their seats more than their consciences, he will continue in office.
This is all true. And I disagree strongly with the people upthread who claim that the American public actually likes Trump’s schtick. He is the most consistently unpopular president in the history of opinion polling. The problem is that the hardcore rank and file who are most likely to vote in primaries do like it. So those Republican politicians are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They know he is bad for the party’s brand, but they don’t dare to defy him, lest they get primaried like Mark Sanford. But I guarantee you a huge number of them wish he would just die.
I’m pretty sure that any court will say that the purpose of impeachment is to remove a current office holder from office. In any case, I don’t think you can do a joint impeachment like that. They would end up being voted on separately.
The Democrats would end up looking silly if they did something like that.
Trump has the overwhelming support of the Republican voting base. Going against Trump is a career ending move for any Republican hoping to hold any kind of public office. Only retiring Republicans can safely turn on him. Of course he is a political liability, but the alternative is career suicide.
And all this is because, as it turns out, nearly a quarter of the population—nearly half of my fellow white people—have been waiting all their lives for a President who’s not only a cruel petty bully, but a white supremacist one.
Trump is just a hair off being as openly white-supremacist as the olden-days “heroes” George Wallace and Lester Maddox, and the current Richard Spencer and Steve King. And that hair-off from openness has made all the difference: it permits mainstream right-wing politicians to pretend that what they’re embracing and enabling is not white-supremacism.
Trump’s base know that they are unlikely—short of an official repudiation of the Constitution and democracy—to ever get another w.s. President again. Thus they’ve given to Trump the massive political clout conveyed by the fact that nearly half of all voters will move heaven and earth to vote the way Trump wants them to.
Trump will find a way to stall all movement against him until a year from now, when he will announce that purely by his own decision he will retire from the presidency at the end of his term. He’ll endorse an alternative Republican, who with Trump’s blessing will carry enough of Trump’s base to win. If any federal criminal charges are brought against Trump after that point, his successor will pardon him.
Whatever else that can be said about Trump, he’s a master at slipping out of trouble. He’s like a character from a National Lampoon movie who somehow manages to cheat, lie and con his way through life.
I’m skeptical because of the extreme likelihood of state charges (from New York at least) being brought against Trump. No Presidential successor Trump could choose could pardon him from those.
Trump will leave the White House only under the threat of force—or in a hearse. Those are the only two ways.
I do believe he may pull a Palin and quit before his term is up, although I don’t believe his anointed successor would be likely to win the election. But it could be a close one like 1976, in that case.
I think he will leave office and never go back to New York or maybe even to any blue state. He may take refuge in deep red states where he can feel relatively confident that the federal government will not want to stir up the hornet’s nest by going after him there and potentially triggering a constitutional crisis or even civil war by challenging the state government and its police. He can swap his trademark jets for a giant fleet of tour buses that can roam around freely from Idaho to Alabama, conducting a neverending series of rallies along the way.
He might be tempted to go visit his totalitarian friends in other countries, but I don’t think he will want to risk going under federal jurisdiction for the travel.
Pretty much this. The demographic tide coming means the they won’t be able to gerrymander enough districts and suppress enough votes to retain power for much longer. And when they finally cough up the Senate, they’ll be marginalized for decades until the Trumpstink fades.
It’s a good point you’re making. But I think this shows the depth of the intellecutal collapse of the Republican party. The one thing they love about Trump is how he treats “the other” and the media. He targets minorities, whether muslims or mexicans or whatever group bothers him the most on any specific day. He screams “fake media” when journalists accurately report on his actions. He lies every day, just as casually as most people brush their teeth. His corruption is accompanied by his “lawyers” screaming at TV cameras, just in our face.
And all of this is stuff that Republican voters love about him. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature of Trumpism. Pence won’t or can’t express that hatred the way Trump does, and therefore we need to keep Trump.
The biggest story in recent years isn’t really Trump himself. It’s the story of a political party that gave up on governing, trashed all their supposed principles, and gave in to grifters, hucksters, hustlers, charlatans, and general kookery. The Republican party has completely given in to their worst impulses, and there’s no way to turn that around unless and until the time where they are soundly thrashed in elections.
Trump is a party of one. He’s essentially a cult leader. Republican voters who merely tolerate Trump for the sake of his agenda are on board with the Republicans in Congress. They all know what they’re getting and have agreed to the Faustian bargain. if Trump blows up, those supporters will not blame the Republican establishment.
Regarding his cult-like followers: It’s already been proven nearly impossible to break the spell. In the extremely unlikely event that evidence of his betrayal is unearthed that can’t be cast as fake news, or machinations of the Deep State or Democrats, they will blame Trump because the Republicans have done everything to demonstrate they’re behind him.
If I were an amoral c*nt who was willing to sacrifice my country and constitution in the service of my own power, I would do exactly what the Republicans are doing.
That “hardcore rank and file” is 90% of republicans.
Trump is more consistently popular among self-described Republicans that Obama was among self-described Democrats. Roll that around in your head for a while.
The human brain prioritizes the short term calculus over the long term. In the long term? Sure, Trump’s a liability; meanwhile, these congressional reps have to win re-election next November, most of them run in districts that strongly back Trump, and there’s no reason anyone should expect these voters in these highly-gerrymandered districts to fall out of love with what Trump is selling them, which is guns, God, and intolerance.
You can thank gerrymandering for that. And you can thank bored and disillusioned moderates and progressives who stayed home because they bought the “death panels” lies hook, line, and sinker, or because Obama didn’t wave his magic wand and get them a better paying job soon enough. Goes to show how just one midterm election - just one - can have profound consequences. Republicans drew a map that created cult politics. It was “base” politics taken to an extreme.
That statistic is a bit misleading, as Nate Silver has pointed out. Trump is so toxic to anyone who is not a true believer that many people who don’t like him have stopped calling themselves Republicans. So that’s 90% of a rump faction.