(I’m not sure where to put this. Mods change if necessary.)
Are we experiencing the beginning the next WW?
I’m practical. I’m thinking about shortages. Not shortages of TEMU products.
Medicines, or parts and products that fix things, gas and imported foodstuffs(not caviar or anything, just normal foods).
What will come? (Or not)
What should I hoard up on?
Nothing.
That’s easy to say. I have special needs. Not that I’m so important. But, still.
I also have a big family to feed and loads of equipment that could need parts.
Everywhere we go is far away. I need to go to dialysis times a week.
I mean come on, shouldn’t I be planning?
A world war is generally defined as conflict between the world’s greatest powers.
Iran is not, by any possible measurement, a great power.
Now, if somehow China and Russia get directly involved then it’s WW3.
Yes. I’m worried about China. I think Russia is busy.
Then there is Kim.
China is making too much money to be interested in war now.
Their oil supply is going to be endangered, yes, but they are investing heavily in renewables and nuclear power and can use Russian oil as an stopgap (I believe).
What makes an U.S. / China war a scary, if remote, possibility is that the U.S. is not in the hands of responsible adults precisely.
True. The PTB are clay footed creeps.
I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them.
So…I think my personal responsibility is to myself and my family and near ones. And I wanna prepare.
Russia is providing targeting information to Iran, so they are already involved.
Yes, but helping one side or the other indirectly is a time honored tradition that usually does not result in war between the superpowers, see: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea…
My argument is that a long war with mass privation is not preparable for by hoarding.
Go ahead and stock 2 months of TP. But you’ll need 48 months. Go ahead and stock 3 months of gasoline for your long drives. But you’ll need 12 months’ worth. etc.
As we’ve seen with the post-COVID supply chain disruptions, what you won’t be able to get is essentially unknowable at this point. And you can’t stock up on everything you might need for the rest of your life. The entire effort is futile and counterproductive. So don’t do it.
Living where and how you do, you already stock a bunch of stuff beyond what a city-dweller does. That’s all good. Keep doing that, and maybe add to some key things that are easy to store and that you turn over quickly.
One thing you can’t save up is dialysis treatments. If the US medical system collapses for any reason, lotta people are gonna be screwed in fairly short order.
I don’t see this turning into another world war. As Frodo said, it’s unlikely China or Russia will see any advantage out of joining in the fighting. They’ll support Iran but not with troops.
This war is more likely to turn into another Vietnam or Afghanistan or Iraq; a war that will drag on for years without any clear resolution.
I wouldn’t be surprised if China takes advantage of the US being otherwise preoccupied and goes ahead and invades Taiwan. They’ll never have an American president who cares less about Taiwan and now might be their best opportunity ever. I don’t think that would spark a world war, the US would simply fail to lift a finger.
That’s a possibility, they would wait until U.S. military readiness degrades to an optimum point and then strike.
I’m not sure, though, that Taiwanese defenses would be easy to overcome(amphibian assaults are hard) or that the U.S. would not lift a finger, Trump’s ego would not allow him to be remembered as “The president that lost Taiwan”.
Yes, @LSLGuy , I see your point.
You can just prepare for so much.
I do live remotely and we have a mid-sized hoard of stuff we use rapidly(it’s amazing how fast) that we restock weekly.
Unless one of the companies that make dialysis machines can provide me a wearable (?? yeah, right), I’m ok being the first dead one. My affairs are in order.
Until then, I prefer not to see starving/naked kids and animals.
I’m stocking up on the Siamese cats preferred foods. Knowing full well they won’t eat it next week. At. All.
Yeah I sound entitled and greedy. I know. Since the idgets have started this crap in the middle east and made me worry about WW I have to think of those right around me.
I feel as bad for the rest of the world. Especially those in the actual war zones. What can I do for them? Really?
I can throw a little cash at charities. Drop in the bucket.
Anyway. I’m just frettin’
I think Iran doesn’t have much in the way of “friends”, or (more accurately) allies that need them that badly; at least not powerful allies. And as already stated, they aren’t very powerful themselves on the global stage. I don’t expect this to escalate into anything approaching a world war. That doesn’t mean there won’t be consequences, there absolutely will be, but it’s not going to be world-changing.
This.
And unlike certain other world powers, China is very patient and doesn’t appear to be particularly eager to get into shooting wars.
And why should they? Can you name a conflict involving a major power in 50 years that has resulted in a decisive strategic advantage for that power?
I would imagine from China’s perspective one of two things will happen. The USA will suffer some sort of economic and/or societal collapse causing a weakening of our military and economic influence which the Chinese will then quietly step in to fill the vacuum.
Or we won’t, in which case it makes no sense to fuck with us.
Quoted for truth
Yeah, I don’t see what dog China has in this fight. Not much upside for them getting involved and a lot of downsides.
And I suspect the US reputation as the world’s preeminent military power tends to give other nations pause.
It’ll be interesting to see how well we do in a land war in Asia. After having transferred, and expended, a lot of our war stocks to Ukraine.
You might stock up on insulin. I know that won’t help your kidney problems, but still.