My point was not that economic prosperity necessarily precludes war, but that the current “deal” between China’s leadership and the population is “We rule, you prosper”.
And that they are, so far, people of considerably more FP acumen than Kaiser Wilhelm and the Austrian government.
Of course it helps that the current environment, as opposed to the Austrians, greatly favors them.
So China has no reason to enter wars, at least while the economy is humming along nicely. Being somewhat smart people they will probably refrain from entering wars.
The wildcard here is Kaiser Wilhelm Trump and his people, who are not in a favorable environment, and are not rational people.
War! What is it good for?
Distracting the populace from their other problems and getting them to rally 'round the flag and therefore Dear Leader. For awhile at least.
I feel general prosperity actually pushes the other way. When people are economically well off, they might begin to ask questions about why they’re living under a allegedly communist dictatorship when capitalism seems to work so well. And if capitalism works, maybe we should try some other western ideas like elections and civil rights and multiple political parties?
The regime needs to clamp down on those ideas. Sure capitalism is nice as far as business goes. But for politics you need a strong government. You need it do regain territories that were stolen from China back when Chine had weak governments. And you need it to keep other countries from stealing more from China now. Plus you have to keep those ethnic minorities, like Uighurs and Zhuang and Tibetans, from getting uppity. So no democracy for you!
That was the theory at the end of the 20th Century, China was supposed to democratize as it prospered… didn’t happen.
I agree with your history.
I think the Western (mostly American) pundits who prophesied that Chinese democracy would follow Chinese prosperity were guilty of typical American impatience. And some self-centered cultural ignorance.
I would not be surprised to see China democratize at some point in their journey towards widespread prosperity. But it might take 75+ years for that desire to take root. Not the 25 from Deng’s first tentative pseudo state capitalist beginnings to the pundits’ confident predictions of imminent democracy.
Revolutions happen when the grandkids grow up seeing their two elder generations doing well materially but stymied politically. Right now far too many Chinese are alive who remember the bad old days of privation and repression. They’ll put up with repression now for fear or reverting to the privation. Heck, out in the countryside many tens of millions of Chinese are still waiting for the prosperity to reach them too.
As a parallel and returning to the topic of this thread …
Even with current events in Iran we don’t exactly see the Iranian people arising en bloc to overthrow the clerical regime they’ve spent years protesting about. Its been ~47 years since the Revolution; folks aren’t fed up enough yet. Getting there, but not yet. And especially not yet for the older and more rural / conservative / undereducated set.
Yes, be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best. Even if there’s a less that 100% chance of a world war, if you have special needs, like your dialysis, or another person with diabetes, BE PREPARED!
This is my plan and my worry.
There are things you can hoard. I don’t mean TP or bottled water. I mean gas, medicines, food that I need for my diet. Unless I get to be dialyzed regularly, food and insulin won’t matter, for me.
I can’t live forever, no one can. But to mitigate the suffering for those who can carry on awhile is what I’m thinking about..
I kinda think you are, Tommy.
Iran and Venezuela were their two main sources of oil. Trump is going to force them into this the same way we forced Japan into Pearl Harbor.
As for what to stock; rice, beans, vitamin pills, honey. There is more if you have the money and storage for it, but that’s what we did (over a year ago.) If I had land like yours, Beck, I’d be planting trees, fruit, cherries, nuts of every kind. They’ll take two or three years to provide substantial food, but by then I reckon you’ll be glad you did it. And even if you don’t NEED them, it’ll be nice to have.
Seeds, if you have the space to use them. It won’t hurt to plant perennial foods and just ignore them, let them grow strong while you can. Asparagus, Good King Henry, that sort of thing.
Because the two biggest trading partners in Mainland Europe never quarrel, and get along like lovebirds.
France and Germany, BTW.
I agree that prosperity and trade do not necessarily preclude war.
That said, there were tensions between France and Germany that do not seem to exist in China, or not at that level.
Germany felt itself blocked by existing powers without room to expand, Austria was wary of disintegrating in five or six independent nations and needed to keep the Empire cohesive to avoid it. France was incensed about the humiliation in the Franco-Prussian war and the loss of Alsace and Lorraine to a point that IMHO cannot be compared to Chinese irredentism RE: Taiwan.
So when something happened that triggered Austrian insecurities, German inferiority complex and French revanchism… boom. *
I don’t see China being in a comparable situation, let’s hope I’m right.
* Not to mention Russian Pan-Slavism and recent humiliation against the Japanese, England’s nervousness re: German power in the continent, general fear of a lower class uprising and pseudo-fascist nostalgia for “the good old days, when young people knew what a war was…”
I lived in china for 8 years and, although I met a number of people who believed Taiwan is part of china and should ultimately be under one government, I never got the sense that anyone was impatient about it.
It’s one big difference with the west. They see many things in terms of future generations. They are ok with a many decades long plan as long as steps are being made towards it.
I don’t want to make it sound too noble – I am of course against annexing Taiwan, and against the de facto annex of Hong Kong that already happened.
ETA: Oh, and in terms of the OP: probably not. But I am not as sanguine as others here. There’s always the potential for events to spiral out of control.
Hey, @TruCelt don’t call me honey , I like you and all but that’s a bit too familiar
(I know you ment Honey as food, just kidding).
Yes we have pretty big garden concern every year. Active greenhouse. We planted many fruit trees since we moved here. Nut trees were already here.
If every seed or plant store, Garden center fell off the planet I have enough seed saved (in a fridge) to plant greens, squashes, beans, corn to feed an army a couple years.
Yes we’re good there.
Where we lack is we don’t keep livestock. I tried many times to get into raising calves and piglets. The kids were not gonna be eating Butters and Porkypig. Failure. I have had more success with chickens. My hens are in retirement at the moment. They just eat and cluck. We are planning on new chicks this spring.
Of course my husband and son hunt and fish. So we always have that choice. Got a pond full of catfish.
Thanks for your input, honey 
(Tell me about this Good King Henry stuff)
LOL! Well honeychile . . . It’s useful stuff, and takes care of itself. The biggest trouble you might have is it taking over the garden. Use the early shoots like asparagus, the leaves like spinach, and the flower buds like broccoli. The stalks are good in soup (celery-ish.) The seeds can be soaked for saponins and then ground into flour. It provides food from early Spring to late Autumn. And it’s a perennial.
I don’t suppose the little ones would be up for slaughtering bunnies? But I would add drying beans or lentils to your list above. Just in case you are going to need protein. Man cannot live on deer alone. And maybe increase the eggs.
Sure wish I could!
But does it “work so well”? That argument was effective under the USSR, which didn’t provide prosperity and left people under it fantasizing about how much better off they’d be under capitalism. An increasingly prosperous China doesn’t support that argument. They’ve no reason to think that officially switching to capitalism would get them anything but less prosperity and greater wealth inequality.
And they’ve simply no reason to equate capitalism or prosperity with freedom. Especially not now, with capitalist nations getting worse on both fronts.
Ok..I read your link to Good King Henry.
Altho’ not botanically connected, we have Poke Sallet here in South Arkansas. It grows wild and never fails to present in the spring, everywhere..it’s a bit more difficult to prepare.
And we have wild Mountain Spinach and Lambs quarters.
Yeah, I could forage greens quite easily.
Why would a prosperous country want to expand? I don’t get that AT ALL.
All the other cool kids had done it! How could you be proud of being prosperous when your colonial possessions were rounding error compared to perfidious Albion’s?
They were not rational, specially Donald Trump Kaiser Wilhelm.