I don’t think that Trump would have organically have been a catastrophe. That he got elected with a Republican legislature and an elderly and incomplete Supreme Court is disastrous for women’s and gay rights, but is not nuclear winter.
If there is a catastrophe, it will come from the mandate he has been given: Bring back low end manufacturing.
China is a large percentile of the global economy and, in addition, the United State’s primary creditor. They have been actively, aggressively hacking our computers, corporate and government, every day of the week for the last several years now and discovered an unknown number of exploits.
There’s the possibility that the realities of the situation will prevent Trump from cutting off the pipe from China, and thereby failing his mandate. But if he actually makes a go at it, the Chinese economy will crash, they’ll call in our debt, and cripple or economy to force us into paying. All the meanwhile, the global economy will have crashed because China collapsed and the US had been crippled, which will further take out the US economy.
And that doesn’t even require China to have a fragile economy. The US provides a MAJOR source of revenue for the country. I don’t know what percentage, but I’m sure that is big enough that it wouldn’t matter how strong the Chinese economy is , it would still take a major hit. Personally, I’m not willing to trust the robustness of the Chinese economy, and I certainly don’t trust the Chinese government to not go apeshit to protect it, causing more damage than if they did nothing.
The end result may also not be nuclear winter, but I think it’s reasonable to call it catastrophic.
So the question is, with a bunch of economists telling him that he can’t go up against China, will Trump listen to the experts or decide that he has a mandate and that he’s smart enough to figure out a way to pull it off without anything coming back up on the US?