You did not offer a third choice here either:
You actually reduced it to one choice. Here Obama wasn’t clueless to the reality of instabiliity. He had to know the truth but lied for political reasons.
What you are forgetting is that a soverign Iraq did not want US troops there beyond 2011. The exit date was negotiated by Bush not him. Obama had no political motivation to lie about Iraq’s stability at that point in time. He said they had challenges ahead and no one should dispute that.