Isn't snow a piece of the climate change puzzle?

[gitfiddle]

@md2000

The link to September temperatures - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=map-blended-mntp&year=2009&month=9&ext=gif - is cherrypicking. An abnormally hot September in an abnormally cool year proves nothing.:

• (Let’s leave aside that this past decade was the hottest on record or that while this winter has been unusually cold in North America, temperatures elsewhere have been abnormally warm. I’m asking specifically about snow.) *
  The sentence is inacurate.

The fact that temperatures are above normal in other places does disprove the claims by folks who point to seemingly cooler than usual temperatures as proof that climate change is a hoax.

I didn’t mention it to say that that those two facts alone prove or disprove climate change. If I had, it certainly would be cherry picking.

[jjimm]

@gitfiddle

It appears that this thread is getting off track. Remember, the question is just simply if snow like that which is being experienced on the east coast is concordant with predictions by climatologists as to the possible effects of climate change.

It’s certainly believed to be true in the case of Northern Europe, since climate change could alter the Gulf Stream, turning the UK’s temperate climate into something similar to that of Iceland. So while not applicable to the continental US, increased snowfall in spot areas is certainly part of the puzzle. BBC Weather Centre:

The Gulf Stream brings warmth to the UK and north-west Europe and is the reason we have mild winters. Without this steady stream of warmth the British Isles winters are estimated to be more than 5C cooler, bringing the average December temperature in London to about 2C.

At the end of the last Ice Age, when the ice sheet covering North America melted, the sudden increase in fresh water reduced the salinity of the north Atlantic surface water and therefore less ‘dense water’ sank and moved towards the equator. This reduced, or even shut-down completely, the warm Gulf Stream. Temperatures in north-west Europe fell by 5C in just a few decades.

Recent observations have shown that since 1950 there has been a decrease of 20% in the flow of cold water in the Faeroe Bank channel between Greenland and Scotland. This is one source of cold dense water that drives the density-based component of the Gulf Stream. There may be an increase in flow from other cold water sources, but, if not, it could be the start of the slow down of the Gulf Stream.

[The_Other_Waldo_Pepper]

@gitfiddle

It appears that this thread is getting off track. Remember, the question is just simply if snow like that which is being experienced on the east coast is concordant with predictions by climatologists as to the possible effects of climate change.

I’m not interested in definitively proving or disproving (man made) climate change.

I’m not interested in a prolonged hijack; I simply note that saying “snow like that which is being experienced on the east coast is concordant with predictions” would pack a little more explanatory punch if one went on to mention what snow-related effects aren’t.

Half the snow? Double the snow? No snow? Is any type of snow-related activity capable of proving or disproving it? If not, then we’d have a much more striking answer to the OP’s question: this latest snow has no bearing on AGW claims, because no amount of snow has bearing on AGW claims. Or, in the alternative: this latest snow has no bearing on AGW claims, because it would need to be X and Y or Z to be relevant.

That strikes me as pure relevance. If it constitutes a hijack, I’ll of course drop it.

[Cat_Whisperer]

I think the best answer we can come up with at this point is that the snow in the US in the winter of 2009-2010 is another data point in the broader picture. You have a snowier winter one place, you have a less snowy winter in another place; you can’t extrapolated to the bigger picture based solely on either of those contradictory data points.

[gitfiddle]

@Cat_Whisperer

I think the best answer we can come up with at this point is that the snow in the US in the winter of 2009-2010 is another data point in the broader picture. You have a snowier winter one place, you have a less snowy winter in another place; you can’t extrapolated to the bigger picture based solely on either of those contradictory data points.

Again, I’m not asking what this snow means. I’m asking if climatologists predicted abnormal snowfall as part of, to use Tom Friedman’s term, “global weirding.” Just as many have warned of sea level rises, did they suggest record snow fall (in the eastern US) might also be an effect of climate change.

[Whack-a-Mole]

@gitfiddle

Again, I’m not asking what this snow means. I’m asking if climatologists predicted abnormal snowfall as part of, to use Tom Friedman’s term, “global weirding.” Just as many have warned of sea level rises, did they suggest record snow fall (in the eastern US) might also be an effect of climate change.

I gave you your definitive answer in Post #3.

Yes, big snow storms are consistent with global warming models…for awhile anyway (at some point it’d get too warm to snow but we are not there yet).