I think it’s not a goal, but it open up a power vacuum in Iran that hopefully the moderates can move into on their own.
I’ve seen this possible outcome mentioned on a couple of news sites, but I don’t really see the strategic benefit to Iran of doing this. I only see disrupting global oil supplies increasing Iran’s problems.
What could they gain from such a move?
Harming the economies of rest of the world (and themselves).
Get the international community itching for the war to end as soon as possible, including before Iran’s nuclear ambitions are permanently ended.
What’s up with Trump "truth"ing that everyone needs to leave Teheran immediately?
Now that Israel has done the hard part he wants to get involved and take the credit for a win.
Makes sense, although any strategy relying on other people doing what you expect them to do is inherently shaky.
Just one out of a myriad possibilities if the Strait was blocked: Trump sells Israel the ‘bunker buster’ bombs needed to destroy Fordow and Natanz. With their prime objective achieved, Israel ceases further action.
I hope the rest of the world sees through any attempt by Iran to drag the war out or draw others into it.
Absent the real nuclear option, trying to close the strait is the closest thing Iran has to a nuclear option. They’d probably only do it if their regime was already guaranteed to end.
I don’t think that has the “threat” it once did. The US is now one of the largest oil producers in the world. No doubt closing the strait would affect prices but it is not the gun to the head it once was.
Today Isreal warned hundreds of thousands of people in the middle of Iran’s capital, Tehran, to evacuate the city. Trump warned every one in Tehran to evacuate. “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump wrote.
What does this mean? Is Israel going to attack civilians in the heart of Tehran? I hope not. Is evaucation even possible? I could see 300,000 in central Tehran evacuating. But the city has 10 million people and metro area 17 milllion. That many could not evacuate.
Is this just bluffing meant to scare people to leave and cause chaos?
I doubt Israel or the US expects Tehran to evacuate. This is just cover for them later. When someone complains Israel bombed an apartment building Israel can say, “We told you to evacuate. This is on you.”
Another incoming barrage identified.
withdrawn
Looks like another small wave. May have even been just a single missile that was shot down? Reports unclear.
Speaking of unclear reports: there are photos going around social media claiming that there are ships on fire in the straits of Hormuz.
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/no-shelter-no-excuse-a-personal-plea-for-arab-citizens-safety/
Apparently nearly half of Israeli Arabs have no access to bomb shelters.
Not everybody lives next to an obvious target (military installation), but many do, and they are surely at least trying to evacuate. Wouldn’t you? There is footage of heavy, jam-packed traffic out of town.
The Israeli Defence Minister said the residents of Tehran will pay the price for Iranian attacks on Israeli civilians. Later he walked it back and said they will just be attacking infrastructure - but since it’s in a city lots of people live close by.
I hope they aren’t going to purposely target civilians, it’s not like most Iranians even support their government.
More information on precision Israeli strikes on Iranian air defense and high value targets. SPIKE missiles were launched and operated remotely by operatives. SPIKE missiles are fire-and-forget and have a loitering capability to chose or track targets.
Bomb shelters are a fact of life in Israel.
They have been required by law for the entire history of Israel, part of the national building code set by government at the national level. But the enforcement of the building codes is carried out at the local level, by local government. . And this is the reason for the lack of shelters in some areas.
Building permits are issued by local authorities. And building inspectors are employees of local authorities. Like every country, in Israel it is the responsibility of local government (city or county) to issue building permits , and inspect the new construction for compliance to code.
By national law, all buildings have to meet the national building code, which dictates the type of bomb shelter to be built (*see below for the history). . But the enforcement of that law is strictly in the hands of the local government, at the time they approve the permit for each new building or neighborhood..
Bomb shelters are expensive. And many local authorities were very lax in enforcing the building codes. Especially .in Arab towns.
The reason for this is simple: The Arabs living in villages, towns and cities where the residents are 100 per cent Arab, assumed that they are perfectly safe, and that the Arab armies who have attacked Israel in the past would never attack their town. So why build those expensive shelters?
The concept of an “Arab village” may sound strange to American ears. But it is a fact of life in Israel, There are many, many villages, towns and cities where the population is 100 per cent Arab. The language used in schools is Arabic, the mosques are the major buildings in town, the entire local culture is Arabic. Children learn to speak Hebrew only as their second language.
And here is the important point: for the entire history of the country of Israel, with all of its constant wars, when Arab armies invaded with tanks (1948, 1967, 1973), when Arab terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza shot missiles into civilian areas, etc, etc–there has never been a military attack on an Arab village ..
So, yes, it is true, (as stated in the quote from post 192): there are lots of Arabs who have no access to bomb shelters. But this is not because of some huge conspiracy by evil Israelis who deny protection to Arab citizens. It is strictly the fault of the local governments in certain areas, who for 75 years have not enforced the law and building codes, because they saw no need to do so…
Also, regarding the link in post 193,(titled “a plea for Arab safety”) --the situation is even more complicated.
The Arab communities referred to in that link are a subset of Israel’s Arab population: the Bedouin tribes. This is an ethnic group with its own vast problems. These are problems which originate in their own unique lifestyle, and have been ignored (and thus exacerbated) by Israeli governments for decades. When Israel was created as a modern nation state in1948, the Bedouin tribes were nomadic tent dwellers who roamed the desert with their flocks of goats and camels. They moved with the seasons, riding camels, and proudly refusing to build permanent homes. Gradually, modern life imposed itself on them, and they became less nomadic.. By the 1970’s many of them had begun to work in cities. In the 1980’s it was common to see Bedouin families living in a house which they built themselves (no running water), but keeping their traditional tent pitched adjacent to it, and carrying out much of their social life in the tent, not the house.
In 1985, while working on construction of a new road in the desert, I was offered coffee in one such tent, heated over a fire of camel dung, from a husband who drove up to his house in a 4 wheel drive jeep (the camels remained tethered)., while his wives walked down to the well to fill jugs of water, carrying the jugs balanced their heads.
By the year 2000 or so, this lifestyle was dying out, as most Bedouin families had built houses, and were working jobs in the cities.. But the move to modernity was done with no organized planning. Many of the Bedouin today live on land in the desert which was never declared to be residential . There is no recognized municipality, no mayor, no planning commission, no building inspectors. Many families built their own houses with no building permit. And with no bomb shelter, either.
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*Here’s a brief history of bomb shelters in Israeli houses:
Standards have changed over the years, as military technology changed.
In the 1950’s, (age of propeller airplanes), shelters were built scattered around in residential neighborhoods, usually surrounded by a small public park or playground. The assumption was that in a war, there would be time for a couple hundred people to run down the street and pack into the underground shelter..
By the 1960’s, (age of jet bombers) the building code changed, because the warning time was less. So every apartment building was required to have a large basement built as a bomb shelter, accessible from the lobby of the building, large enough to hold all the building’s residents. (In Israeli cities, the vast majority of people live in multi-story buildings). The assumption was that in a war, there would be time for everybody to run downstairs 5 or 6 storeys. and join their neighbors in the shelter.
In 1990, (age of scud missiles,) the building code was changed again. Nowadays every individual apartment must be built with a bomb shelter room inside the apartment. The reason is that there is no long enough advance warning to run downstairs. There is only 60 or 90 seconds between the time the alarm sirens begin blaring till the missiles hit.
In Israel, all construction is with concrete–,no wood and drywall like America. So one room in every apartment is built as the bomb shelter, with thicker concrete walls and ceiling. .The door to the room is made of metal, not wood.(It looks sort of like a refrigerator door, and has a rubber gasket.) There is only one window, of a specific size, which is made of bulletproof glass, and has a metal shield that can be slid out of a slot in the wall to cover the window. The door has a double latch mechanism, on for everyday use, a second, tighter closure for use in war.. When the door and window are sealed, the room is airtight, to protect against attacks with chemical weapons. There is an air filtration system in the room which can be activated to pump filtered air into the room. The room is expensive to build, so it is usually the smallest room in the house, and is typically used as a child’s bedroom or an office..
This may seem weird to most Dopers, but it’s everyday life for us Israelis. It’s common to say things that would shock in English, but sound normal in Hebrew, such as saying to your kid " go to the bomb shelter and finish your homework".
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I think that, part of the reason at least, is that Israel (along with a host of other nations) has completely lost confidence in the United States as a reliable ally. They feel they have to strike first to have a chance at victory because they don’t trust us to come to their aide.
I think Ukraine is a prime example of this. Trump is just letting Russia completely destroy that nation.
Not exactly - they said that about parts of inner Teheran, specifically the parts around the seat of the government.
I have no idea what Trump’s tweet is about. I assumed it has to do with possible actions by America rather than anything specific Israel is doing.
Israel is starting to attack government buildings and other symbols of the Ayatollah regime in inner Teheran, in the smaller area (that you said is populated by 300k people). Attacking random civilians seems like the last thing Israel would want to do - it would bolster support for the regime. Attacking the regime itself makes it look like a weak joke - the last thing an authoritarian dictator wants to look like.
A British company said the fires had to do with them and were not related to a “security” incident. So I guess the Iranians aren’t stupid enough to fire on ships in Hormuz… Yet.