Moderating:
This is political speculation. It has no place in a Breaking News thread in MPSIMS. Please continue political discussion of the ramifications of the breaking news story in an appropriate forum, not here.
That’s not an accurate statement for breaking news. Iran was given 60 days. The US began evacuating personnel in the region toward the end of that ultimatum. Israel struck on day 61.
Iran announced this morning plans to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty; they have apparently now done so, joining North Korea as a previous acceder who has now withdrawn. One assumes this is symbolic, since their announcement comes with reassurance that they do not, of course, actually want to develop nuclear weapons.
The only number I’ve seen on last night/this morning’s missile attacks was “dozens,” which would make the barrage smaller in scope than the previous night’s, itself smaller in scope than the previous, but more destructive—current reporting is 8 dead, including two in a safe room (also, minor incidental damage to the US consulate in Tel Aviv).
One reason it may have been quieter initially was that the IAF was actively monitoring Iranian ground movements and attacking launchers before they were able to fire any missiles. According to the IDF, 120 missile launchers, representing one third of Iran’s inventory (IAF Twitter account, in Hebrew). Not having spy satellites handy, I don’t think I or anyone here can evaluate that for accuracy, especially since modern Iranian launch vehicles are designed to look like commercial trucks carrying shipping containers.
It is known though that Iran has been constrained on their ability to produce launch vehicles; after ten years of Shahab-3 production they had only a few dozen launchers available for them. The most recent estimates were that they still have only a couple hundred vehicles for their short-range Scud derivatives (50 or fewer Shahab-3 launchers, perhaps 100 Fateh-110 launchers, ~100 older Scud TELs), and even fewer for their medium-range missiles, so if true 120 could well be 1/3 of their capacity.
Am guessing it’s this. All the OSINT accounts I’m reading on X and the apparent mismatch between what Israel and Iran is able to hit would seem to indicate IAF dominates Iranian airspace to that extent.
OK, so what are the Israeli tactics for getting through Iranian air defenses in the first place? Attack the SAM launcher/radar trucks?
Just one wave last night, but it was a pretty big one. Rockets got through in a couple of places. One hit a refinery in Haifa where three people who were properly taking shelter died - I believe the first ones in shelter so far - apparently because they where trapped inside the shelter while it filled with smoke.
The other deaths were at residential buildings that were hit. Eight total. One man was killed in his home, near a school for special needs kids that took a direct hit.
Meanwhile, the IDF estimates that a third of Iran’s missile launching capacity has already been destroyed. I think it is realistic to hope that Iran will not be able to match the output it had on the first two nights going forward.
Basically this (the devil is in the details of course).
But yeah…the goal is to destroy the things that can shoot down their planes and do it faster than the enemy can replace them (radars, SAMs, other planes, airports). Once most of it is gone you have control of the skies which is a pretty big deal. You can not win a war from the air alone (boots on the ground are needed to do that) but it helps the boots a lot.
ETA: Which makes me wonder…what is Israel’s end game for this? I can’t imagine they will invade with troops (Iran is much too big I think). How does this end?
This is appropriately symbolic. This woman on Iranian state TV appears to be ranting about Israeli airstrikes. And then, a surprise!
There are two potential existential threats posed by Iran. First, obviously, is their nuclear weapons program. Second is their ballistic missile program. Iran started this war with 2,000 ballistic missiles and 360 launchers. They have been talking about a stockpile of 20,000 and, in the longer term, 100,000 ballistic missiles. Such a critical mass of ballistic missiles would pose a critical threat even without nuclear capability.
So those are the two problems to be resolved. Much of this work can be done from the air. Missile factories have been destroyed, and stockpiles blown up. 120 of the launchers have been destroyed so far, 20 of them last night while they were preparing to fire a barrage. Nuclear scientists and fortified facilities have been destroyed. There are plenty more sites to hit - I heard something about 2,000 sites across Iran that are connected to the nuclear program alone - but Israel has free reign in Iran’s sky at this time, so that should be doable.
There are a handful of much tougher nuts to crack, however. Most notable is the enrichment site at Fordow, which is buried underneath a mountain. Supposedly, the American B2 can drop a bunker buster big enough to reach it in a single blast; Israel doesn’t have strategic bombers or penetrating bombs of that sort. So that leaves plan B: bomb the everliving crap out of the mountain until the facility caves in. Again, that’s the sort of thing you need air superiority for, so you can fly bombing run after bombing run against the site.
And there’s always the ace in the hole: if Iran’s oil fields are hit, I don’t see how the already teetering regime survived the economic damage.
Potentially related: thirty something American aerial tankers were moved to bases across Europe this morning, mostly to Spain.
Small barrage a bit ago that included some rockets which made it through, unclear if they caused damage or injury though
The USS Nimitz has also canceled a planned port call in Viet Nam and is being deployed to the Middle East, joining Carl Vinson and her battlegroup already there. This is either to provide support in the case of potential escalation (especially in Yemen) or, as Twitter appears to be convinced at the moment, so that it can be sunk in a false-flag operation to draw America into the war.
That air superiority, at least, appears to be unquestioned. The strike yesterday on Mashhad is also the furthest operation the IAF has conducted. The intent in that case seems to have been targeting an Iranian aerial refueling aircraft, although I believe the IRIAF may have also displaced at least some of their surviving F-4 fighter-bombers to Mashhad (i.e., as far from Israel as they can get them).
Five options come to mind:
1 The U.S. has decided or is preparing for the possibility that it will provide Israel with aerial refueling support to dramatically accelerate its offensive air operations over Iran.
2.Joining the kinetic fight.
This would mean the U.S. would enter the air war directly, or is preparing to be more capable of executing that option.
3.Preparing to deal with Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz.
4.Providing a robust air bridge from the U.S. to the Middle East.
This may be the most likely option as it would be needed if major assets are going to start flowing into the region, or at least the option to support such actions is being put into place now.
5. (unfortunately not likely). Maybe this is all the first stage of a US effort to defend Ukraine against Putin’s attempts to completely destroy a European democracy.
Bitter laughter ensues…
In any case, the transponders were kept on so public tracking programs (and countries) were well aware of the activity. Sending a message.
Also some C-17 cargo planes were in the mix; support supplies and perhaps rearmament.
Is the goal of this now regime change in Iran?
Not on Israel’s behalf. You can’t change a regime from the air - you need significant boots on the ground, which is beyond Israel’s capabilities.
Don’t forget 6: Just general preparedness. Moving some ships and planes around doesn’t commit to anything, but if Iran does widen the war in a way that impacts our interests, or the situation changes in some other way such that we want to get more involved, having those assets in place still opens more options. Maybe we’ll still choose to stay out of it anyway, but it doesn’t cost much to get more options.
Editing my incompressible post to what it was supposed to say:
I heard that some buildings in the Weizmann Institute were hit, and the Einstein papers may have gone up in flames.
Israel wants the US to destroy the underground bunkers where nuclear weapons are being developed. They don’t have the bombs that can do that. This would stop any Iranian nuclear development for a very long time. I assume the materials they’ve refined already and the equipment they use would be destroyed and buried very deep.
We need Rod’s From God! (kidding…it is a notion on paper and not a good one albeit kinda badass).
Another barrage from Iran, but a much smaller one this time. Like, 10 missiles.
Is this a tactic? Or is Iran’s capability to launch mass barrages truly compromised? Impossible to know at this time, I think.
At least, for us… Hopefully the IDF has a pretty good idea.