Vibrotronica: No, I don’t think this is a step towards an all-out war. No arab state is willing to attack Israel at the moment, they have nothing to gain and everything to lose. Israel isn’t interested in a wider war, although they might attack preemptively against troop concentrations, WMD facilities, or terrorist camps. But whether that leads to wider war depends on how the nation that is stuck responds. Since none of Israel’s neighbors want war, they will respond with talk, outrage, UN resolutions, and republishing “The Protocals of the Elders of Zion” for mass consumption.
It does have me worried. I don’t know enough to rule out escalation or status quo.
It has me worried, too. There are currently reports on Yahoo! of gunfire being traded over the Lebanese border. This happens from time to time, of course, but the timing is particularly worrisome right now.
Lemur, your words are encouraging and sensible, but just becuase countries “don’t want war” doesn’t mean they can always avoid war, as August 1914 proved. This affair smacks of badly thought-out brinksmanship on the part of Sharon.
Well, I’m talking about a doomsday scenario that comes as the final act of a massive conventional over-running of Israel. Note that I also said that I didn’t believe the Muslim nations were capable of such an effort. Despite their propoganda (and 2Thick’s bizarre beliefs about Iran), I’m sure all the surrounding nations know that even if they could successfuly invade, the costs would be immense.
And since this only comes after Israel has been clobbered (or is on the verge of being clobbered) the long-term international repercussions might not be of greatest concern.
Anyway, the entire region seems locked into a cycle, as you pointed out. Barring an Arab nation getting the bomb (and possibly not even then) I don’t see the status-quo changing anytime soon. A major economic upset, like controlled fusion, will disrupt the oil-rich states, and that might be interesting to watch, but so far it’s just bloody businees as usual.
My school has a subscription to the Jane’s online database. If you guys can tell me what to look for, I might be able to get it, when I can find some time.
This evening NPR had an interview with some Syrian professor. What he had to say was informative but depressing. He started off by saying that Israel and the US could call the Hamas et al types terrorists until their faces turned blue but that he regarded them as “freedom fighters.” They are, said the professor, freedom fighters struggling to free the Palestinian people from Israeli oppression and occupation. When asked what sort of freedom fighters blow up a restaurant full of families with children, the professor launched into the litany about the hundreds of innocents in the occupied territories killed by the Israeli armed forces and settler gangs.
In other words, more of the same. Clearly the whole thing continues to spiral out of control with a cycle of revenge and retribution that no one in the area really wants to stop and which no one in or out of the area has the power to stop. Every thing indicates that we are looking at an increase in tribal violence which will probably end with a new “final solution.” Because of the disparity of wealth and power the out come will probably be an ethnic cleansing that will make the removal of the Cherokee Nation look like an act of kindness.
Both sides are filled with righteous indignation. Neither side is willing to take any substantive first step toward a rational solution by partition or integration. Both sides have all the excuse they need to continue to indiscriminently blow people up. No outside power has the military strength or political will to do any more that give the whole catastrophe lip service. President Bush’s road map was just the last episode in a series of well meaning but doomed attempts to bring order to this ongoing vendeta and mutual destruction pact. Lets face it, Israel is the bull of the woods and no one, Iran or anybody else, is in a position to impose a policy against Israel’s will. The US, with an election year looming over the horizon is not about to do anything which might offend a significant voting block, be it End Days Christians or Next-Year-In-Jerusalem Jews.
It’s just going to get worse, friends. Maybe it would be best to just get it over with quickly. Israel, in the meantime, surely recognizes that the only power that can stop them from clearing out Palestine is no going to do so and that it can pretty well exercise a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians any way it chooses . The same goes for Syria. Israel can eat Syria’s lunch when ever it wants.
I’d like ALL of it. You can send me an email when you get it ready. 
I think that the general gist of things here would call definitely for the sections on Israel, and then various ME countries, starting with those bordering Israel and working out from there, and Pakistan.
Why doesn’t the US bust Israel’s balls from time to time when it would serve our ostensible interests? No loan guarantees until ALL of the illegal settlements are dismantled and there are no new ones being built? Or some such.
A lame-duck unpopular President in the final week of his administration and knowing he’ll be regarded with disdain by history might try this, if he feels he has nothing to lose.
In other words, Israel should hold its breath in January, 2004.
Uh, January 2005, rather.
Damn.
Unfortunately, you’re probably right on the money. Great insight, by the way.
Such silly wishful thinking… Sigh.
Once again, the Iranians are not Arabs.
I don’t know whether the entire population would be killed, but Israel might face the situation Palestine endures now: unjustice, no freedom.
I think pretty much everyone in this thread knows that. However, do you really think that Iran could overrun Israel without Arab involvement? First off, once the Arab states smelled blood they would jump in for the kill. Second, Iran doesn’t share a border with Israel, so they would need to join up with an Arab state in order to overrun it.
I think a good chunk of it would. However, the surviving population wouldn’t endure what the Palestinians are enduring because they would leave of their own accord rather than live under Arab rule. At least, that’s my guess.
Where would they go? There are several million of them, that’s quite a big problem.
If you are referring to me, you are quite mistaken.
“the Information Ministry (i.e. CNN/FoxNews, NPR)”
FoxNews and NPR being compared to one another? A bit of a stretch there, don’t you think?
No, Israel is not. The US attacked Afghanistan because Bin Laden (anyone, remember him? Tall dude w/ a turban, has penchant to live in caves, responsible for 9/11) and his goons were hiding out IN Afghanistan. Remember, Bush wanted him brought back dead or alive. The woman who blew herself up in Haifia was trained by Islamic Jihad who operates openly in Gaza and recruited her there, **NOT IN ** Syria. MOREOVER, the war in Afghanistan **WAS NOT ** a pre-emptive strike. We were struck first (remember 9/11?) and then we attacked, which was justified. Israel’s attack is correctly being called a pre-emptive strike and compared to our unjustified war in Iraq. Furthermore, like in our case with Iraq, if Israel wants to prove that they are justified in attacking Syria then Israel need to show us some evidence that the target was indeed an active, terrorist training camp. But, I’m not going to hold my breath.
Also, a request to not only Israel, but also to “our ally in the war on terror” Russia. Sure, you can pull the wool over our idiot president eyes, but not the rest of us. Stop acting like vultures and invoking our dead to justify your political ends. 9/11 is our tragedy, not yours. It makes me sick when you justify your immoral actions in the name of “fighting terror.” Of course, it makes me sicker when Bush accepts it without question.
BTW, can somebody remind me again how the doctrine of pre-emption is going the keep the world safe from annihilation?
Mostly Europe and the US would be my guess. Probably Canada, too. Many Israelis have duel citizenships and so couldn’t be stopped from repatriating.
But it’s a moot point, since neither Israel nor the US would let that happen.
Hah. I call whoosh on you.