Israel will be destroyed, unless it fights and wins an all-out war

Great Debates
21

Well, I am glad to see december drop all pretence and come out in favor of ethnic-cleansing. Very volklich of him.

Otherwise, I will simply note in re the Sharonista gov’t the Economist’s -or was it FT?- sardonic comment in re Palestinian moderate’s conspiracy theory noting an odd coincidence between moments of calm and assasinations of P leaders which set off new rounds of violence. The comment was along the lines the conspiracy theory begins to gain adherents outside of Palestine.

It strikes me that there is a certain group of decision makers in Israel who are attempting to lay the groundwork for ethnic cleansing. It’s not too hard to push the ever-idiotic P extremist buttons.

22

**
So, what are we going to do about the Palestinians and Muslim extremists who keep attempting it on Jews?

23

From the CIA World Factbook

Israel is a nation bereft of natural resources, with large external debts and a heavy dependency on the US for both its military strength and its financial stability. If Israel were to launch an aggressive war against nations that have not attacked it for almost 30 years, its imports would be cut off, its exports wouldn’t be purchased, and the US would cut off both military support and financial aid.
Then see how long it lasts.

Sua

24

Utterly false. Israel has never pursued the course I outlined. Their policies differ from my proposals in two key areas:
-Israel has routinely declared certain discussion points “off the table” until the Palestinians can demonstrate one thing or another to the Israeli government (the requirements have not always been consistent; the “we won’t talk about that” position has). One of the strongest drivers of moderate and man-on-the-street Palestinian support for the violence of the extremists has been the very clear perception among the Palestinian people that Israel will never bargain in good faith.
-Israel has never chosen to ignore violence by the extremist fringe while negotiating with the center. Every breakdown in discussions has occurred when Israel walked away because of violence, thus handing the extremists the means to derail the talks–giving the extremists, in fact, veto power over all of the region. This has been true regardless of the Israeli government in power (mostly because they tend to be coalitions that need at least some support from the Israeli extremists to hold power).*

Actually, the Romans never depopulated Israel. The Roman method (similar to the methods of conquerors through the ages) was to remove the people at the top of the social pyramid (a few thousand, perhaps a few tens of thousands out of a first century population in excess of 2,000,000). There were enough Jews (even important ones) living in the region after 70 that they were allowed to establish a univerity type school in Jamnia. After the second great revolt was crushed in 135, more were exiled, but enough remained that the next Roman emperor permitted the schools to reopen. Jews were a significant segment of the population as late as 351 when they are mentioned as participants in a Persian/Parthian inspired revolt against Rome. When Mohammed swept into the area to lay claim to Jerusalem, Jews were a significant portion of the population that resisted him. There has never been a time since the period of Judges when the land was devoid of Jews and Eva Luna’s statement probably has a lot of truth in it.

*(That gives me an idea: every time Israel locks up a Palestinian, it should imprison an Israeli extremist as well. If enough of the extremists on both sides can be removed from circulation, the people in the center could hear each other.)

25

No. I would expect her allies to defend her prop up her borders.

A government with extreme policies in the Mideast likely to start throwing around WMD??? Time to get all Iraq on their ass…

As for hostile neighbours:

  1. Do I have to remind you that the Arab league offered full recognition of Israel in exchange for honouring UN resolution 242, just a few months ago.
  2. [facetious response]Don’t trust aggressors of 30 years past? Yeah, you’re probably right - after all, France’s 1975 invasion of Germany and Italy pre-empted that proposed German takeover. To hell with treaties![/facetious response]
26

You are probably correct in part, Tomndebb, but i repeat that there is a hude ethnic difference between the Palestinians and the Jews, even accounting for significant interbreeding with Europeans and West Asian peoples.

27

Well, FWIW, everything I’ve read on the subject strongly suggests a common pre-history heritage. DNA testing establishes an unusually high correlation between modern day Jews and Palestinians.

Of course all that is meaningless, but for those that like their historic context deep…go figure.

And, believe me, in a thread populated by both Collounsbury and tomndebb, them’s brave words.

28

link

29

Normally, I wouldn’t touch this thread with a 10 ft. pole, but since you asked…

Yes, I agree with you… mostly. While the vast majority of the Israeli public is opposed to “Transfer” (i.e. expelling the Palestinians from the Territories and from Israel), and that any unilateral attempt to implement it would rip the country apart, it depends on how angry Israelis are. If, God forbid, terrorists manage to pull off a WTC scale attack - perhaps using chemical weapons - the all bets are pretty much off, and Israel may find itself doing something it will really, really regret.

Great post, BTW. You’re pretty much on the money.

30

Incidentally, I’m actually quite fond of the opinion that Jews and Palestinians are related. It means that Jews are native to the Middle East, and that Israel is an integral part of the region.

31

IzzyR - You are a gentleman. Thank you.

Alessan - In pre-modern religion terms, I’m not sure I understand what you mean by “related”. Do you mean ‘common heritage’ ?

32

This is certainly true.

However, after winning its hypothetical all-out war against Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc., Israel might be the world’s leading oil producer. :wink:

33

I mean common ethnic background, Like, say, the English and Germans. Or Welsh and Irish.

34

So by being against genocide of Palestinians we are for it on the Isrealis? I couldn’t twist logic like that if i was Chubby Checker and Ayn Rand’s love child.

35

I know your were being facetious, but this is untrue even in Hypothetical World.
There are two hypothetical possibilities after Israel’s victory. First, that Israel imposes rule over the native population of the oil-producing regions. Second, that Israel kills or drives out the native population.

In the first instance, Israel doesn’t have even the potential military and security capability to prevent massive and sustained sabotage of oil fields and production infrastructure. In the second instance, the US would attack Israel - it cannot afford to have most of the world’s oil reserves controlled by an expansionist and genocidal power.

Sua

36

December

Well that is the issue december, it’s your particular point of view. Ironicaly it’s a strange one, after all you are here defending Israel and suggesting a neo “final solution”.

“Imposing a democratic goverment” that would be a contradiction.
Someone else made you a question December. Do you think that the live of an innocent palestinian is exactly as valuable as the one of an innocent israeli? If the answer is yes then slap yourself for uttering nazi type arguments.

37

Aside from all the other good points people have mentioned, I should point out that Israel is not capable of launching an all-out war against the Arab states.

Israel can defend itself against anyone. It is militarily superior to its neighbors. HOWEVER, It has a relatively small full-time armed force. The vast bulk of its military manpower comes from the citizen reserves. Israel has had to mobilize its citizen army just to deal with the Palestinians.

The result of having a large reserve among the population is that large military mobilizations are hellishly expensive, because it takes productive people out of the economy.

Is Israel going occupy Syria? Saudi Arabia? Jordan? Lebanon? All of them? With what? Israel’s army is designed for rapid mobilization, fighting a short war, and then de-mobilizing. It’s brilliant at that. But those strengths make it a pretty poor occupying force. Israel is already feeling the economic strain from its latest mobilizations. Having to field a million soldiers in neighboring countries would stretch its defenses to the breaking point and ruin its economy.

So forget that scenario. It’s not in the cards, even if it were the right thing to do (and it’s not). Like it or not, Israel is going to have to figure out a way to live with its neighbors.

Part of the problem right now is that Sept. 11 and Al Qaida has stirred up a lot of latent militancy in the Arab world. It’s starting to polarize. The Saudi government could fall all on its own, and be replaced by something worse. Iraq is a continual problem. As long as this nonsense continues, so will the increase in terrorism in Israel.

Israel needs to buy time, hope for the situation to calm down, and *selectively hit targets that disrupt the enemy’s ability to organize and launch large terror attacks. It will just have to put up with the small ones.

Eventually, the situation will change. Either the U.S. will invade Iraq and install a friendly government, which will take the pressure off the Israelis to some degree, or the whole Arab world house of cards will crumble, leading to widespread change in a reasonably short period of time (years, not decades).

Looking a little further out, OPEC is losing its power, and will eventually be marginalized as other oil sources and alternatives to oil become available. Once the money stops flowing, A) the Saudis won’t have the money to fund as much terror, and B) no one will care what happens there anymore anyhow. Conflicts in the area wil, instead of being world-shaking events, will be more like the trouble in the Balkans - troubling, but not a threat to the world economy or anything.

These factors will slowly change the equation, hopefully for the better. Israel will just have to ride it out.

38

It does sound contradictory, yet it was successfully done in Germany and in Japan after WWII. There are reasonable hopes that the world community will successfully impose a democratic government in Afghanistan.

The point of this thread is what will or will not work from Israel’s POV, rather than what’s morally right. Plenty of other threads here have debated right and wrong.

Various sensible arguments posted here have convinced me that all-out war by Israel is not the answer to its survival. I withdraw the assertion in the OP.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure there is an answer to Israel’s survival. As Sam Stone says, Israel has to hope for various things to work out.

39

Thanks to tomndebb, London_Calling, and especially IzzyR for the backup cites on the historical and genetic development of the Middle East. I knew they were out there somewhere, but hadn’t had the chance to make a concerted effort at searching. However, questions always remain…

smiling bandit, what do you mean here by “ethnic”? Do you mean it more in the sense of racial, or more in the sense of cultural? Regardless of what a DNA analysis may show about who my ancestors were, I’m Jewish, about as Reform as they come, pretty much the Jewish equivalent of a lapsed Catholic. If you mean “ethnic” in the sense of cultural/sociological practice, though, I probably have much more in common with a young, urban, not-terribly-religious Palestinian than with an Orthodox Jew in terms of our worldview or how we live our daily lives.

40

Dear Mr. Buckner:

I will try very hard here not to write anything that can be interpreted as satiric, but there is a limit to the amount of control over others interpretations.

Various news reports show U.S. plans for invasions of Iraq. Iran has been labelled as part of the Evil Axis.

And the Pentagon’s long time think tank, RAND is describing how Saudi Arabia is an enemy.

And are you paying attention to what the more hawkish Israeli cabinet ministers are saying (sorry, no cite the Jersulem Post)?

Do you think it is coincidence that these are three of the four oil richest countries in the world?

President Bush is the one making foreign policy in this country.

There, I think none of the above can be construed as satire. My opinion, I have learned is going to be, so I separate it:

My original statement seems to me to be a logical conclusion of the avowed policies of the U.S. and Israel.

Some people think that would be a bad thing, some people think it would be a good thing.