Kadima may be leading but will they get a coalition together? Alternatively can Lieberman and Shas coexist in a Right coalition? What do you think?
Things are very strange right now. I think I’ll wait for the actual results before I say more.
I look forward to your take on it!
What, even by Israeli-election standards?!
Well Haaretz makes a big deal over the “right-wing bloc” but I have a very hard time seeing Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman’s party) in the same coalition. You know how in America Right-Left polarity hardly describes political beliefs in actuality? It is that and moreso in the Israeli political universe.
In Israel you have the poles of secular vs religious and hawkish vs peacenik. Yisrael Beiteinu is secular and hawkish and overtly resentful of Arab-Israelis who do not have to serve in the military like secular Jews must and who openly express sympathies with Hamas. (Of course I suspect they are also resentful of the exemption that the Orthodox get from military service too.) Shas’s peace platform is, if I understand correctly, that Sephardim whose families had been forced to abandon property in Arab lands be compensated as part of any peace deal, and they are mainly concerned with both preserving the special rights of the Orthodox and reversing secular laws in favor of religious ones.
Sure you can call them both “Right” but what common ground do they have? Likud is unlikely to get them both and embracing secularism would split its own people as well.
I think that Yisrael Beiteinu is more likely to pick secularism and go with Kadima who will embrace that platform wholeheartedly. But what will be his pound of flesh?
Yes…
The full results (yet still interim – waiting for double-envelope ballots, typically cast by soldiers [sort of like Absentee Ballots in the US, available here only in very limited cases]) are only muddying the water further, IMO.
On one hand, Kadima and Likud are more-or-less equal. And each one only got slightly less than a quarter of the vote.
On the other hand, the Right Wing Bloc is clearly larger than the Center-Left Bloc.
On the gripping hand, a Right-wing-only government just won’t survive the crazy demands each splinter party will be able to make to Netanyahu, and there are about 5 parties he needs (some less “slinter-y” than others.)
Nor will all those parties survive each other (Lieberman and Shas together? … Really!?)
It’s going to be interesting. For some (mostly negative) values of “interesting”…
So c’mon, make some speculations as to how it will shake out, especially Israeli Dopers! Here’s Haaretz’s latest. I’m betting that Lieberman falls to Kadima after driving for a good price. That sticks it to Shas, elevates him as a voice of the Right within power and diminishes Bibi. But you may know more so educate me!
I wish…
My bet is… Bibi is tasked with putting together a government. Bibi cobbles together a bare-bones Ultra-right coalition, despite public outcry and professional advice. Said coalition falls apart relatively promptly (as in, within a year or two.)
Lather, rinse repeat until Lieberman gets sick of Bibi, or early elections are forced (again…) and the public gives Kadima a clear enough mandate.
What (I think and feel) most people here want to happen is a bi-partisan unity govt. (Kadima/Likud + satellites); possibly with rotation at PM position.
Not gonna happen, Bibi being Bibi… :rolleyes:
How long is the deal making phase likely to take?