It's Not Looking Like the "Asian Century" So Far

Story here.

I never did buy into the Asian Century or China Century or India Century, etc., predictions, because no century ever ends up being what it looks like it’s shaping up as to be the beginning. Who in 1900 could have predicted the world in 1999? Who in 1800 could have predicted the world in 1899? 1700/1799? Events simply will not conform to human will.

I have no idea who will be the superpower of the 21st century, or even if there WILL be any old-style superpowers in the 21st century.

Relative American decline is apparent, and probably inevitable. But it’s very difficult to see who the new power will be.

“Europe”? They’re rich and influential, certainly, but have an aging population, no stomach for fights of any kind, and dozens of different nations who feel absolutely no kinship or loyalty to each other. If Flemings and Walloons can’t live together peaceably in Belgium, how can DOZENS of ethnic groups do more than co-exist?

Russia? They’re rich again, thanks to natural resources, but will never again have the manpower to be more than a regional power. They can bully Latvia, but they can’t project power around the globe.

China and India? There’s a lot to be extremely impressed by in both places- but both have a foot in the Third World, even as they have one in the Space Age, and they have demographic trends that will be a nightmare to deal with.

I can’t see any other nation becoming as powerful or pre-eminent as the U.S. once was.

Give 'em time. Shit, in 1908 who woulda forecast that the British Empire, back then the greatest global power ever seen so far, would be in ruins less than two generations later? A lot can happen in fifty years: it’s hard to see Europe resurgent, America seems intent on recreating the Ottoman Empire all over again, Africa’s a primitive shithole, as ever - who else is left but Asia?

One day, Australia will rule the world. It may take a few centuries, but it’ll happen. Mark my words.

Been playing a lot of Risk lately, have you?

“Asia” has all kinds of demographics problems. Population-wise, Korea and Japan are in a free fall. So many people worry about Asian overpopulation, but a more valid concern is, who’s going to take care of all the old people?

China is getting old even faster than it’s getting rich. They’ll soon have more senior citizens than the U.S. has citizens.

The U.S. has all kinds of problems, but don’t delude yourself that the future is perfectly bright in Asia.

And don’t forget Brazil!

All I know is predictions of the kind almost never pan out, so everyone’s predictions in this thread will probably never come to fruition. There’s always something that comes completely out of left field and blindsides everyone.

Imagine living in a world where Brazil dominated:

  1. the women
  2. churrascaria places all over
  3. capoeira in the streets
  4. the women

What with the number or Portuguese-speaking people in Toronto, we’ve already got a start on things. (Although most of them came from the Azores after the Second World War, so it’s not quite the same.) I will say, however, that I went to art school with a Brazilian woman who was one of the most beautiful women I have ever met. If she hadn’t smoked… sigh