I didn’t say that the presumption was important.
I said “The more important point here is that Paterno presumably thought …”.
Meaning that in the context of our exchange, this was the more important point.
You said the fact that McQueary might have been lying heightens the needs for an investigation and I quibbled with whether McQueary was suspected of lying, but noted that this had no bearing on whether an investigation was warranted anyway. And as regards to investigations, what’s more important is not that McQueary was not suspected of lying but the presumption that Paterno thought …
In that context, to say “It’s not a presumption I can join you in making, especially if it’s of such importance” makes no sense. You wouldn’t not join me in a presumption based on how much bearing it had on the matter at hand. (Or at least you shouldn’t …)
Other than the fact that Paterno himself said so, no. IOW not much.
But I also don’t know of any evidence against it either.
And that’s how the logic works. Since you’ve claimed some familiarity with statistics, you should be familiar with this. In general, most variable things in the world tend to be clustered around the average. As you get further from the average, you tend to get fewer and fewer outliers. So the null hypothesis is generally that something is average, or normal. The assumption is certainly rebuttable, but it makes sense to assume this until evidence shows otherwise. You don’t start off by assuming that something is an extreme outlier and demanding evidence before you accept that it’s normal. You start of assuming that something is most likely normal and demand evidence before accepting that it’s an outlier.
In this case, to assume that Paterno was both unconcerned about the possibility about a kid being molested and also unconcerned about the possibility that an unrestrained Sansdusky would destroy the PSU football program would be an assumption that he was some sort of extreme outlier. That’s the assumption that needs evidence to back it up, IMO, not the reverse.
So if faced with two possibilities, one of which involves Paterno - or anyone else - being more-or-less a normal human being and the other being an incredibly stupid and morally bankrupt person, my inclination is to assume the former is more likely, pending other evidence.