It doesn’t seem to want to make that sharp northern turn they keep modelling it to do… That helped me in S Florida, but if I were in Texas, I’d worry. I wonder if it may NEVER make that turn.
I’m in Baton Rouge and also none too pleased with Ivan’s westerly track. My neighbor has an old tree on her property that’s been dropping big limbs for the last few months. She told me over two years ago that she’d been advised to take it down. It better fall AWAY from my house.
Sadly, not true (at least here). I know a couple of counties made the call on Friday (which was anyway premature and possibly panicky), but in Pinellas they decided on Sunday. On Friday and Saturday they were “waiting to see”. Anyway, not any dumber than most decisions that the PCSB makes.
(I don’t want to hijack this but I think the whole FCAT thing is fairly silly as well)
I’m beginning to wonder about that myself. It’s starting to look like Texas or Mexico might be more likely targets.
Well, I called “Texas” about 5 days ago.
Well, the official track wandered back east a little bit:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/131458W.gif
The spaghetti map is still all over the place (all the models)
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp but the bulk of them are the panhandle.
I suppose the best news is that Cuba appears to be safe, except for the very very western tip.
Well, my mom’s out shopping for stuff like batteries, and I’ve got a small pile of absolutely irreplaceable stuff on my bed in case we need to leave. It’s amazing how much of my stuff, however much I like it, is replaceable if it comes down to it.
Better to prepare for the worst, right?
I think I’ll just go hide under the bed now…
Sorry folks, this ain’t no Texas hurricane.
There will be a trough dropping down in about 24 hrs or more that will keep Ivan from moving anymore towards the due west. At 11am he was moving NW and as of the 5pm report he is moving NNW. They say he may go back to moving NW that would be followed by a North movement and just before landfall a NNE or NE movement. But he’s still a cat 5. Wind shear in the northern gulf should knock him down to a cat 3 at landfall, but with him staying so strong for the past 24hrs, it will take the shear longer to erode him, so a cat 4 isn’t out of the question at landfall.
They did not issue watches for the US at 5pm, so I’m pretty sure they’ll do it at 11pm.
Based on NHC, the best place for landfall seems to be from Gulfport, MS to Ft. Walton Beach at this time with a landfall as far west as New Orleans and as far east as Apalachicola not being out of the question. But based on the current info, I’d place my bets on a Mobile, Pensacola or Ft. Walton Beach direct hit.
Also keep in mind that hurricane winds extend 115 miles from the center and Trop. force winds extend outward at 220 miles especially on the right (east side) of the cane…so if landfall occurs in P’cola…Ft. Walton and even Panama City get some hurricane winds with even Tally getting Trop Force winds. He currently has 910mb pressure which is extremely low…Francis and Charley never got that low if I recall correctly.
And as I said before…watch out L.A. (lower Alabama) and even central Alabama…places like Dothan and Montgomery are gonna get it with this current path.
Talk with y’all after the 11pm advisories, I’m sure then the watches will be issued…I’m thinking Hurricane watch from Mouth of Mississippi to Apalach…but I could be wrong on that,just speculation on my part.
Ivan is definitely bad news. And he is still a Category 5, top-of-the-line storm, though the material already posted about his weakening as he crosses the Gulf is quite possible.
But I want to stress that he is much stronger than the average hurricane as of this point. I don’t want to be Chicken Little – but I don’t think people are taking this storm as seriously as they ought. Exactly one Category 5 storm hit the U.S. during the 20th Century – Camille. And she hit not far west of the point Ivan is forecast to.
The effects of Camille were horrific. I urge everyone in the Southeast and the Northern states bordering the Southeast to read that link. Excerpts:
As I said, I don’t want to overstate this, but I think it could be very serious, even compared to the devastation of a “normal” hurricane. And I think it’s important to at least bring up the possibility of this being a second Camille.
Actually, it turns out Andrew was also a Cat 5.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/getready/andrew_class.html
Yes there have been 3 landfall Cat 5 hurricanes on the U.S. mainland…Camillie, Andrew (he was upgraded) and the 1935 Labor Hurricane in the Keys. And while I understand and agree with Polycarp that we along the Northern Gulf Coast should take Ivan seriously, I’d be willling to bet that he will be NO cat. 5. Easterly wind shear is already showing up on the outer cloud deck in the Gulf. No hurricane likes wind shear and therefore I think it will lower Ivan to at least a Cat. 4, BUT that is still a major hurricane and a force to be dealt with seriously. Anything at Cat 3 and above is a major hurricane and not your “garden variety” or normal type cane. The storm surge and winds will be terrible as will the flooding rains inland.
That said however, it is never good to panic or spread rumors about these things. Keep your head on straight and think with your brain. Do not fall victim to rumors and falsehoods that run rampant during the days before landfall.
I’ve been completely in the eye and on the edges of over 2 dozen canes from Andrew to last month’s tropical storm Bonnie. I was sitting on the beach when she came in. My first hurricane was in 1975 and her name was Eloise. I’m not sure yet that staying here in Tallahassee will let me count Ivan as one I’ve experienced, only time will tell that story.
Who’s not taking this storm seriously?
i "called " texas on the 7th.
ivan is very tricky. he fended off and turned a shear around while he was moving by the “abc” islands. first time i saw that.
most hurricanes are delicate bohemoths, able to be moved and sheared off. i’ve only seen one shear on ivan since he started his atlantic march; his front end shortened a bit, his back end was still nice and round. within a few hours he had nicely rounded out and zipped up to a cat 5. this was when he was on the way to jamaica. so far he has kept his eye off shore enough not to be seriously weaked by land fall. his winds have had a 15 mile an hour variable.
this storm should NOT be underestimated!!!
my amatuer thinking is ivan is not through with his tricks. he has some stuff hidden in his rain bands. i’m feeling la/tx border, maybe off galveston landing.
could any of our guesses be any further off than the computers?? remember there is a hundred mile play in any track. so place your guess. time will tell the tale.
poonther, i just saw your post on preview. do you have any data on the shear that ivan turned early in his run? i was pretty impressed by how he dealt with it. are the shears he is heading into now more powerful?
I’m in north Alabama, and my rental house is in a floodplain. I’ve seen it neeeearly flood here with 4 inches of rainfall.
All my shit is up on pink styrofoam blocks, like it has been since Frances.
Lucky you. 
I’m in south Alabama, about an hour’s drive north of Pensacola, FL. Unless something drastic happens and the hurricane veers or weakens, I’m packin’ my CPU, some family photos, and my family and showing Ivan my rear end, dude!
They’ve got a hurricane watch extending as far west as Morgan City, which is a good bit west of us. Unless something really weird happens overnight, like the storm veering off to the east (which I’m beginning to not believe is EVER gonna happen) I’m out of here as of about noon tomorrow. I would far rather leave unnecessarily than to not leave and wish I had; right now they’re talking about tropical storm type conditions here IF Ivan follows the forecast path. Frankly, I’m not buying their forecasts anymore. I know they’re trying, but they’ve been consistently wrong. Texas, here I come!
This is my first hurricane watch. I’ve been in lots of other watches, but not this one. And I don’t like it!
I don’t get it. From the latest (5 am, 9/14) discussion.
Um, what shear? Looks like smooth sailing to me. Or are they talking about that weak ass looking front over the midwest?
Any air that the leading edge encounters that moves in the opposite direction will weaken it.
Air moving from west to east will affect the front of the storm, which is rotating at the leading edge from east to west.
“Weakening” is terribly misleading, because most storms that reach Cat 5 only 'maintain" that strenght briefly - usually like 1 day…maybe 2.
Catetgories on a 1-5 scale are not specific enough. Ivan might have moved up and down from a Cat 4 to 5 and down again, but what are we really saying? We are saying that he was a 4.8, then a 5.1, then a 4.9, then a 5, now a 4.8.
Folks, the rainfall is the same, and your roof ain’t gonna take 150 mph wind or a 160 mph wind. And if he ‘weakens’ to a 3, I think he’ll be more like a 3.9.
Florala?
Uh-uh–Brewton.
Gotcha. I only asked because my girlfrend and I were down in that neck of the woods last week. We were at the beach in Orange Beach, and decided to go home via Pensacola, so we could swing by the Naval Live Oak Reserve (I’m a huge botany geek.) We wandered a bit further, and took US 331 north.
Ogre (who is not a creepy internet stalker guy)