How do you figure this “capitalizing” would actually work? A male predator who wants proximity to children already has that option in male-only spaces (and as another poster pointed out, pedophiles tend to be more opportunistic than gender-specific when it comes to the gender of their targets). And a male predator who wants proximity to children in female-only spaces already has the option of disguising himself as a woman.
If the predators are already so determined and cunning and will stop at nothing in order to infiltrate female-only spaces, then I think worrying about “encouraging” them if we don’t require some specified level of gender conformity to “feminine” appearance in female-only spaces seems fairly pointless.
So your objections seem to me to fall down in at least three places:
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Because of the comparative rarity of transgender identity, and the high prevalence of gender-conforming practices among transgender people, users of female-designated spaces (whether cisgender or transgender) are going to remain so overwhelmingly dominated by people with conventionally female appearance that unambiguously “male-looking” people will always stand out there as unusual.
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It is already very easy for most men to disguise themselves as some type of (say, lumpy and middle-aged) woman sufficiently convincingly to be mistaken for a woman among clothed users of female-designated spaces.
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Given that unambiguously “male-looking” people are always going to stand out in female-designated spaces even if we’re not policing gender conformity, and given that most men could manage to disguise themselves as women well enough to pass muster when clothed in female-designated spaces even if we are policing gender conformity, there doesn’t seem to be any effective screening policy that would realistically make sense in either case.
So no, I just don’t see how banning transgender women from all female-designated spaces, or even merely requiring some arbitrary standard of gender conformity within them, is realistically going to do anything to protect women and girls from predation.
I think my own proposed solution is far more sensible and practical. Namely, everybody uses the restroom of their preferred gender identity, and we take action against individuals’ criminal or suspicious behavior rather than their appearance. (And for facilities that are low-traffic, the facilities should favor lockable single-user restrooms to forestall predatory lurkers, no matter how they’re dressed.)
For locker rooms and other clothing-optional spaces where many people just don’t want to see penises, some type of “third-space” accommodation seems reasonable. But that’s about personal comfort zones, not safety. I haven’t seen any persuasive arguments that transgender-exclusive policies would be either effective or practicable in genuinely promoting safety of women and girls.
We are certainly entitled to our fears, but we’re not entitled to enforce irrational claims on the basis of our fears. All that anybody’s presented so far are highly speculative scenarios, and IMHO that’s not a sufficient basis for denying other people reasonable rights.
I honestly don’t think women should budge on the issue of protecting the rights and safety of transgender women, especially where discriminating against transgender women has no clearly demonstrated benefits in protecting the safety of other women.