Okay, so it’s second-hand anecdotal evidence, which is fine - I’m not discounting it, FWIW.
Up the thread, there’s other anecdotal evidence from a poster who says that Japanese people have been self-isolating. I think we can all agree that Japan has not imposed a total shutdown, but let’s understand why countries have had to completely shut down everything in the first place: a lack of medical surveillance and a lack of getting people into treatment.
South Korea is another country that, by comparison, has kept its country relatively open. They’ve fought the virus with transparency. So has Singapore (from what I understand anyway). Italy shut down because by the time it realized it had a crisis, its ERs were on the verge of being overwhelmed.
Nobody can say whether Japan’s doing enough at this point - Japan’s numbers could surge in the weeks and months ahead, but I do think that if the outbreak were out of control we’d be hearing about it. They have a free press.
It’s possible to hide a full-on COVID outbreak but quite difficult - even China couldn’t pull that off and they threatened to put doctors and families of patients in jail simply for talking about it on social media. By contrast, Japan has a free press.
If you pretend half your pneumonia cases caused by Coronavirus are just “normal” pneumonias and then don’t report pneumonia death totals for 3 years, it won’t be too tough to hide. Read the quotes in post 12, please.
And you do realize, the Japanese government tried to pretend a meltdown didn’t happen at Fukushima, right? You think hiding a nuclear meltdown is less crazy than hiding a disease?
I’m sure Japan’s government is fudging the numbers - I’m not disputing that. I’m disputing whether or not there are no measures being taken - at least one poster here with direct knowledge seems to contradict that. We can debate what level of precautions a country should take, I reckon.
But yeah, Japan’s health ministry might be lying - so what? You don’t think the US government’s trying to put the best spin on the outbreak? China tried to bury the outbreak as well. Guess what? It’s hard to bury a pandemic. Not saying it can’t be done but it would probably require North Korean, Iranian, or CCP-style suppression of the media and online speech. I don’t think Japan has that in place yet.
Japan can try to pretend a COVID outbreak is pneumonia - good luck with that if they do. COVID is not just pneumonia; it’s a terrifying disease that sends people of all ages to the hospital even if it doesn’t kill them. It would quickly overwhelm ERs if there is no response in teh form of containment or mitigation. It would be very hard to cover that up.
It’s not a particularly terrifying disease, really. I’m taking all precautions because I’m a good social animal but it’s not like people who survive are paralyzed, deformed or otherwise permanently harmed. We don’t know the exact mortality rate. The only scary thing is we don’t know how far it will spread and whether it’s with us forever.
Nah, they just die or have scarring of the lung tissue, but who needs air? :rolleyes:
Actually we do: about 1-3%.
About 15% require prolonged hospitalization. That’s 1 in 6 people who are going to be struggling to breathe.
It infects about 2 people for each disease-carrying vector. Hundreds of thousands of people that ERs haven’t accounted for are going to just drop by on a Friday or Saturday night, in addition to car accident victims, people with kidney failure, people with heart attacks, stabbings, victims of domestic violence. Take a look at Spain and Italy again: there’s a reason people are lying on the floors of hospitals and not in hospital beds.
You seem to be missing the importance of the time element here. By the time you see the outbreak, it’s too late. The critical period is before the disease becomes obvious. The only way you can prevent the pandemic is to act while people are still healthy.
So if Japanese people are still holding public gatherings then, yes, we can say Japan is not doing enough.
You really don’t get it. I’m not saying they are covering up a full on explosion of covid-19. They are covering up the early warning phase. Did you read any of the posts above your first? I already quoted an article that the Japanese government itself is predicting infections in Osaka and Hyogo alone are projected to hit 3,300 by April 3. The current count for the whole country is currently ~1000. But they aren’t closing anything.
The way exponential growth works, they can’t possibly be covering up the growth rate. The difference between a 5% daily growth rate over a month (roughly what Japan has been reporting) and a 20% rate (very low estimate for Western non-locked-down countries) is a factor of fifty times - or, at the end of two months, well over three thousand times.
If they had case growth like ours, we’d know.
Japan is clearly doing something right that we’re not but until we actually know what it is we can’t relax the big restrictions. And we’d know if we’d correctly figured out what it is (and could do it), because we’d have a case growth rate of around 5%, like Japan.
By the way, once they do get over a certain threshold of cases, Japan is going to be totally screwed, because according to thishandy little chart of intensive care beds per population compared to other countries (source), they’re woefully underserved. Unless they’ve been spending all of this lead-in time with ramping up ICU facilities, which is possible
Yeah, I should have caveated. A few other big events were canceled but it’s mostly nothing from what I see.
Btw, even though it’s a pretty solid politic move, closing the schools hasn’t really been recommended by health authorities for the most part, afaik. Looking at the CDC they seem to only lean that way when there is substantial community spread or a confirmed case entering a specific school. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/guidance-for-schools.html
Closing schools impacts families differently in the US and Japan.
Let’s start with the rate of single parent households: the United States has 3 1/2 times the rate of single-parent households. The CDC is likely calculating the impact of having healthcare workers stay at home to take care of children. Not to mention Japanese females are more likely to stop working after they’re married and become pregnant. Thus, Japanese schoolchildren are more likely to have someone to stay at home with them.
Let’s also consider the rate of child poverty in Japan vs the US. It’s about 19X higher in the US. Many schoolchildren get their greatest source of daily nutrition in schools, so there’s a reason why the CDC would suggest that closing schools is a potentially counter-productive strategy here.
The response in Country A can be different than the response in Country B.
It’s entirely possible that Japan’s early efforts were sufficient and that their more recent efforts have not been - I would agree with that. Just like it’s entirely possible countries can bungle the initial response, learn from it, and prevent a second wave of infection.
This isn’t some obscure observation of an unknown phenomenon. My ex is saying, “All that shit you’re doing in the US? We’re mostly not doing it.”
We are taking big steps but still beating ourselves up for not having done so on Day 1. In Japan, it’s Day Whatever but they are still not doing it.
Including the article content (appreciated, thanks), I don’t see Japan doing anything particularly special or clever. OTOH, they seem purposely to be covering their eyes and not wanting to test people and know the full extent of how bad things are.
My guess is that a huge percent of that has been a matter of crossing fingers and hoping that the Olympics can go on. Japan has placed a monumental amount of importance on the Olympics, to quite a stupid and almost infantile degree, if you ask me (personally, I think the Olympics are naff). I have no problem imagining Japan sacrificing public health to a certain agree to ensure that the “show goes on.”
I recently listened to a podcast that brought up this very point. The Japanese leaders tend not to have long term plans for disasters, because they know they have some leeway in that if there is a crisis the people will be quick to respond in certain ways when asked. It may be that they are simply counting on that to weather the virus.
Gee, I don’t know, call it a wild-ass guess, but maybe the healthcare workers who, facing a critical shortage during a pandemic, now have to cut their time at work?
Japanese themselves have recognized the problem and there is a word for it, “コロナ慣れ” (get used to Corona). My friend said that some people at her company wanted to have a drinking party and then karaoke afterwards. I’m on a Japanese social media app, and lots of people are posting picture of them drinking on the weekends.
