Japan is pretty nonchalant about COVID-19--and that's OK?!

[CarnalK]

It’s my understanding that drinking, karaoke and going to your job are all considered essential services in Japan.

[TokyoBayer]

Lots of people are drinking with friends, clearly not part of work.

[zimaane]

They did close all public schools near the end of February, even before Italy did. But they haven’t done much else.

That was when there were only a handful of cases in the country. Maybe it will turn out that that was the key. I guess we will find out.

[Quint]

“Japan typically goes through 5.5 billion face masks every year — 43 per person. Sales of face masks skyrocketed as the virus took hold. Masks have been rationed, and people stand patiently in line waiting for shops to open. Other shops sell strips of fabric and coffee filters, along with instructions for DIY versions.”

I am curious how things will turn out in Japan. I can’t imagine widespread use of masks hasn’t had some benefit. Could be they dodged a bullet, could be they are walking blithely into the slaughterhouse.

[Saturn_Dreams]

The governor of Tokyo held a press conference last night to announce they had 41 new cases of COVID-19, the largest one-day increase so far for that region and more than double the previous day’s record of 17. Koike advised people to avoid crowded areas (duh) and strongly requested people not to go out unless absolutely necessary. The response on the internet has been overwhelmingly bad. They’re asking for stronger measures, clearer message, and more direct orders with legal teeth (as opposed to requests). Lots of rumblings about lack of leadership and direction.

People are also starting to believe that the numbers were artificially held low because of the Olympics. Even with the comparatively low number of cases compared to other countries, no one is satisfied with the government’s response.

[Darren_Garrison]

The shit is beginning to hit the bamboo and paper folding fan.

[asahi]

Here’s a good article on this subject from DW, which is generally a pretty reputable news organization.

How Japan keeps COVID-19 under control – DW – 03/25/2020

Here are some of the suspicions that have been aired on this thread:

The low numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan initially aroused suspicion that the government was covering up the truth.

“After the Fukushima nuclear disaster [in 2011], the government initially refused to admit the reactor meltdowns,” said Barbara Holthus, a sociologist with the German Institute for Japanese Studies in Tokyo. “Today, there remains a great distrust of official statements.”

Despite having the capacity to make 6,000 diagnostic tests per day, Japan has only tested around 14,000 swabs to date — 20 times fewer than neighboring South Korea, which has been hit hard by the pandemic. Only patients with the most severe symptoms are tested, said Masahiro Kami, a virologist at the Medical Governance Research Institute. That, he added, means the number of unreported cases is very high.

Political scientist Koichi Nakano said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe likely wanted to present Japan as a safe country in order not to lose the Summer Olympics — though the International Olympic Committee ended up postponing the event anyway.

And here’s the rebuttal, if you will:

Experts at the Health Ministry have repeatedly rejected such criticism, saying they were looking for spikes in COVID-19 cases in order to contain the virus, rather than conducting widespread tests. When the epidemic broke out in a primary school on the northern island of Hokkaido, for example, authorities closed all schools in the prefecture and declared a state of emergency. After three weeks the spread of the virus had been stopped.

“The low number of tests was intended to ensure that health care resources remained available for serious cases of infection,” Sebastian Maslow, a German political scientist at the University of Tokyo, told DW.

and…

Japanese greeting etiquette — a bow instead of a handshake or a kiss on the cheek — has also played a part in slowing the outbreak, as has basic hygiene education taught from an early age.

“Washing our hands, gargling with a disinfectant solution and wearing masks are part of our everyday lives. We don’t need coronavirus to teach us that,” said a Japanese mother of two. As a result, it was easy for society to switch to anti-infection mode in February when the virus first began to spread. Shops and businesses set up hand sanitizers at the entrance, and it became a civic duty to wear a face mask.

I think the OP’s ex was probably saying something along the lines of “We Japanese don’t need to go to such extremes that you gaijin go to because we Japanese wear masks and are naturally cleaner and more disease-free.”

[Aeschines]

@asahi

I think the OP’s ex was probably saying something along the lines of “We Japanese don’t need to go to such extremes that you gaijin go to because we Japanese wear masks and are naturally cleaner and more disease-free.”

No, she doesn’t think that. She was saying that not enough was being done.

BTW, I commuted on some of the busiest trains in Tokyo 1995-1998, and man, I think during winter I had some type of cold or whatever every day. One thing after another.

[asahi]

@Aeschines

No, she doesn’t think that. She was saying that not enough was being done.

BTW, I commuted on some of the busiest trains in Tokyo 1995-1998, and man, I think during winter I had some type of cold or whatever every day. One thing after another.

I caught numerous colds while in Japan - sometimes two or three a year. Like you, I suspect it was public transit.

[Darren_Garrison]

Comiket has been canceled.

[Pardel-Lux]

@CarnalK

It’s not a particularly terrifying disease, really. I’m taking all precautions because I’m a good social animal but it’s not like people who survive are paralyzed, deformed or otherwise permanently harmed. We don’t know the exact mortality rate. The only scary thing is we don’t know how far it will spread and whether it’s with us forever.

It is terrifying enough for the ones who get the severe symptoms. We don’t know about the long term effects yet, obviously, but if SARS is any guide, there are likely to be long term adverse effects. Some people do not fully recover and fell tired ever after. Good for you being a good social animal, but you may be benefiting yourself more than you think. Which is good. We are in one of those rare situations in which doing the right thing for you, doing the right thing for society and doing the right thing, period, are the same. So the conclusion is evident: do it.

[Aeschines]

Ken Shimura just died of COVID-19. He was a major, major star of comedy in Japan and basically my personal favorite of any entertainer there.

This is going to fuck up Japan bigtime.

I am crushed. Fucking, fucking sucks.

[Aspidistra]

That is sad!

It seems likely that people’s entertainment icons are going to be hard-hit by this disease, because they’re generally a more-than-usually social group, who travel around a fair bit and have contact with lots of people … and are older than the average.

I personally hope that David Attenborough’s being well looked-after

[Saturn_Dreams]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6355540
This is an interview with a doctor who works at St. Luke’s International Hospital in Tokyo and she explains why Japan is not doing widespread testing for COVID-19. It’s in Japanese so here’s the condensed English version.

Who gets tested will depend on things like the current situation with regards to infection, and health care system. It’s not something that can be correlated by looking at the population scale of a country or region or the number of cases. There are three main disadvantages to testing everyone including those with light symptoms or asympotomatics.

First, the testing done in Japan is based on PCR, and their accuracy rates are anywhere from 30% to 70%. Although there is risk of a false negatives being allowed to mingle with the public, people who are falsely identified as positive will be hospitalized and have their movement and actions restricted.

Second, there is a lack of qualified laboratory technicians who can administer these tests. Technicians need to undergo training first.

Finally, people with light symptoms who go to hospitals risk endangering those there already with underlying conditions. Conversely, people who aren’t infected risk infection by visiting hospitals.

To people who call for early detection and early treatment, my response would be that even if we did so, there is no way to counter worsening of symptoms. We can only offer symptomatic treatment (as opposed to treating the underlying cause). Instead of having beds taken up by people with light symptoms, those beds need to be ensured for those who really need them.

Currently, the purpose of Japan’s PCR testing is to:

1. Identify and treat those with severe symptoms
2. Identify and treat local infection clusters

The number of tests done in Japan is often compared to that of Korea but Korea had several large-scale mega clusters occurring and the situation is not the same.

There are experts that are puzzled by Japan’s testing criteria but we do test those with even light symptoms in cases where we suspect cluster infection. We have heard the accusations of not performing test to keep the numbers low but that is absolutely not true. It is important for each and every one of us to consider how to carefully use our limited medical resources.

Not that I agree with the doctor’s reasons…

[Francis_Vaughan]

@Saturn_Dreams

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6355540
This is an interview with a doctor who works at St. Luke’s International Hospital in Tokyo and she explains why Japan is not doing widespread testing for COVID-19. It’s in Japanese so here’s the condensed English version.

Not that I agree with the doctor’s reasons…

The bottom line is : we don’t test because we don’t want to know the answer.

Which is harsh, but true. The problem seems to be the test itself. Are they suffering from NIH syndrome? They would not be the first to damn themselves with such a policy. If so they much know that they are sitting on a massive time-bomb.

The above would explain the publicly released numbers and why we see such a weird shape to their curve. Their numbers are limited by the rate of testing. Given how long they have been reporting cases it is hard to believe they are not about to see one of the horsemen arrive at full gallop.

This looks as if it is going to be really bad.

[Alessan]

I’m starting to think that the only thing worth counting, in Japan and elsewhere, is deaths.

[Aspidistra]

Hospitalisations. That’s worth counting too (not quite as available as ‘cases’ and ‘deaths’, but the info is out there somewhere)

[puzzlegal]

@scr4

They did close all public schools near the end of February, even before Italy did. But they haven’t done much else.

They also closed a lot of sporting events. They only allowed a handful of elite runners in the Tokyo marathon. A friend who follows sumo says that it’s being done, but just televised, with no live audiences. And if asymptomatic infections of children are a significant source of spread, closing the schools may be important.

But yeah, Japan fudges their numbers. I don’t have a reference handy, but I was reading an article about comparing mortality statistics among nations, and apparently Japan excludes deaths from earthquakes and other “outlier” events, and that’s one of the reasons their mortality rates look better than the rest of the world.

[DinoR]

@Alessan

I’m starting to think that the only thing worth counting, in Japan and elsewhere, is deaths.

That might not be as accurate as you think. Those most at risk of death have plenty of other potential causes of death on a daily basis and are just waiting on that last straw to drop. If they haven’t even been tested for COVID 19, the death likely gets attributed to something else.

Then there are issues with reporting among those that got tested. Russia has been using a less sensitive test. That probably means they get more false negatives. If someone dies from pneumonia after testing negative it will not show up as a COVID 19 death…even if it is.

[icon]

I am not sure how accurate this is, but a friend of mine shared it with me: https://www.stopcovid19.jp/ It shows several sources for the statistics, though of course, if they are under-reporting then it does not give a good picture.

//i\