Interesting, so it was more a case of Truman believing that it would encourage the militarists too much, have them thinking “Look, we’ve already squeezed one concession out of them, wait until they invade and see how much more we can get”?
Speaking of, and this is a rider question but one that comes up often when talking about the war’s end, on the invasion. My understanding from Japanese sources is that the invasion of Kyushu was highly desirable from the view of the die-hards as it would offer an opportunity to inflict massive casualties on the Americans and force them to negotiations.
My question is this - what if Truman announced there would be no invasion*, that Japan would just be blockaded and bombed into submission? What would the Japanese reaction have been with the rug pulled out from underneath them?
*obviously this is a unlikely in the extreme (although King and Arnold would be high-fiving Truman for giving the navy and air force a chance to shine) since they were actively preparing for it, but I have seen this brought up in the context of whether the bombings were necessary.
While Truman’s announcement wasn’t in words, that is effectively the message he sent when he dropped the bomb. So, to some extent, I think we can say that we know what the answer is.
I haven’t read that specifically, but I do recall the debate concerning allowing the emperor to continue was made prior to the various communications. IIRC, I read that in a series of memos rather than in a book, so it was primary material without commentary.
My guess is that Truman & Co weren’t thinking of internal politics, but rather the leaders as a whole. I don’t think they knew enough about the make-up of the decision making groups to fine-tune his approach.
However, it could very well be that Truman believed a show of weakness prior to actual negotiations would have backfired.
They would have loved it. It would have just giving them more time to prepare. The militarists were set to die as an entire country regardless of whatever happened.
It’s not so much that the IJA looked forward to the fight, but rather that they believed they could have caused enough punishment that the US would settle for better terms. Sound familiar? This was the same thinking which got them into the mess.
Fortunately, the emperor’s sense of self-preservation for him and the imperial family prevailed.
No, that’s not what he was asking as Truman did not announce an intention to forgo an invasion.
That wasn’t a tacit announcement or message sent by Truman when he dropped the bombs at all. The US was planning on using additional weapons during the invasion: