I wish Biden weren’t running, I don’t like him, I wish he wouldn’t get the nomination, but I don’t think those kinds of arguments are going to change anything. He’s the clear favorite. Oh well, still not nearly as bad as Trump.
We just might be, but it’s ridiculous (not to mention highly insulting to Tammy Baldwin) for that first gay nominee to be a small city mayor.
Iowa is 8 months away for crissakes. Things are still in “I like the last person I heard” mode.
It’s not just Iowa; Biden’s national numbers are also dropping:
538’s latest national polls:
Ipsos, 5/29-6/5: Biden 31%
YouGov, 6/2-4: Biden 27%
CNN, 5/28-31: Biden 32%
Looking less invincible by the day. 
Sure UnwittingAmericans, Biden is being chosen because he’s blanketing the state and is so often the last person they’ve heard.
Really no. Not in Iowa. For the shuffling under, for the who is going to emerge as the one able to challenge, sure. But Iowan caucus goers have been paying attention for a while now, and they’ve had chances to hear most of these candidates several times. Much of the rest of America hasn’t really been thinking about it yet; they have been. The track record is that from Selzer polls at roughly this point in the cycle are fairly predictive, barring something major happening, and even then. Edwards, only 6 up from Obama at this point still came in second even with his mistress scandal. Trump was only 5 ahead of the pack below him had a shuffle of who number two challenger would be, but only just barely lost and it didn’t slow him down. In that context up 8 from the pack is big.
Yes support will shift between his main challengers, especially with the debates yet to be, but the odds of it all uniting behind one of them before Iowa in an “anyone but Biden” movement is low. As Sanders support falters it doesn’t just all go Warren … some will go to Biden too. As Buttigieg falters some might go to Harris, but some to Biden too.
Others can have moments at the debates that get them their media cycle and bumps as the most likely to challenge. But as long as Biden doesn’t somehow himself demonstrate that he actually is not the most electable one, 8 points is very likely highly predictive of winning in Iowa, and not being second in Iowa is, for the others, pretty much dead candidate walking.
I very much want to hear why him other than he is most likely to win and to win enough to impact the Senate and down ticket races. I want to be inspired and he does not. He is just decent and normal. But while that is what gets voters to go from “support” to “enthusiastic support” the “support” is still going to be there.
RTFirefly no question that nationally voters are not even now paying too much attention and those will change, likely coming into Iowa ranges eventually. But you do realize that that is Ipsos with Biden up 17, YouGov Biden up 12, and CNN with Biden up 14?
And looking quickly at the Ipsos, among D registered voters specifically its Biden at 36, a lead of +20 over Sanders at 16 and then Warren 11 and Harris 8. Buttigieg is 5 and 10% don’t know. Put the next three, Sanders, Warren, and Harris support all together and you get that hybrid being close to a tie, but that is what it takes at current levels nationally of D RVs.
That is a really big lead. NOT sustainable and will get more into Iowa range I think, including Sanders losing support to others in the fight for second.
This is exactly why we lost in 2016 and got trump as President. Chasing the perfect candidate- who is never perfect for the entire Dem (and a few Indy) electorate.
The Dems dont hold enough of a majority to wait for or hope for Mr/Ms Perfect. We have seen that. Hoping for perfect gives us Trump.
Altho sure, “Mr OK but not perfect” isnt perfect, of course, they will start the process of helping to slow global warming, protect the environment, help those less fortunate, and so forth.
Your ideas will give us four more years of Trump, and a certain end to civilization as we know it by 2050.
You are- literally- backing the* end to civilization as we know it * to try and get YOUR perfect candidate- a candidate many others may not be happy with at all. Nothing could be more wrong.
Jragon, they won’t vote for Biden in the primary, or wouldn’t vote for him in the general? Those are pretty different things.
There is no way in hell that 4 more years of Trump = “a certain end to civilization as we know it by 2050”. Look, I don’t like the guy either. But he does not have the power to bring about this kind of scenario. If you’re talking about climate change, the US is far from the world’s biggest polluter, and other countries are working on reducing pollution regardless of America’s role in it. The backwards progress on environmental issues by Trump’s administration is indeed one of the worst things about it, and is a good reason to vote him out. But come on.
Yes. But when I see numbers changing over time, I don’t expect them to suddenly become static. The point is that Biden’s bounce didn’t take him up to 40, then settle in at 35; it’s kept dropping.
Climate Change Could End Human Civilisation as We Know It by 2050, Analysis Finds
CARLY CASSELLA 5 JUN 2019
A doomsday ending to climate change is not inevitable, but the situation is becoming ever more desperate. Without immediate and drastic action, reminiscent of efforts during World War II, a new analysis predicts that by 2050, climate change could become an “existential threat to human civilisation” that can never be undone.
Just four more years of trump? Maybe not. But the attitude of chasing the perfect dem candidate means a GOP president for decades to comes, and thus, no help in the fight to slow global warming.
And if the USA does nothing, that means a lot of other nations will use that as a excuse.
It’s a bit hyperbolic, sure, but not crazy so.
I wasn’t speaking specifically about Biden as far as the “I liked the last person I heard” comment. I didn’t look at the specifics of any of the polls, so I don’t know if any of them polled only Iowa caucus goers.
I don’t know where you got “they need to be perfect” from “we/I’ll even vote for Harris”. This isn’t a Bernie or Bust, this is Please God Anyone But Biden*. Look, I voted for Hillary, I hate her and a lot of what she stands for, but I could be convinced to do it again if I had to. Biden? I just can’t bring myself to support him, my conscience won’t allow it at this point. Solidarity only goes so far.
The general
Biden’s bounce took him from averaging 24 before he announced to 36 after. If it drops all the way back to 24 you’ll have a point. Everyone had a bounce and dropped back down. Biden has lost less of his than many others.
What is it right now?
Right now last three average is 30. Halfway between before average and bounce.
Is that how 538 defines it? Can you link to it?
AFAICT, it made an appearance in that one article, then disappeared again. We don’t know what values it’s taken at different times, and how they compare with what. So its ‘24’ and ‘36’ are meaningless. We cannot say where we are in relation to them.
True, his average is usually some weighted rolling average, which wouold also give some weight to the Harris X 35% and Morning Consult 38% both of June 3. So current apples to apples would not be as low. But his formula I don’t have.
So how about I do something very simple. Apples to apples.
Ipsos right before: 24.
Ipsos peak, posted May 15: 32.
Ispsos June 6: 31
And oh, among registered Democratic voters the exact same 36% now as at bounce.
Freefall, I know.
Morning Consult before 27%. Peaked at 40%. Most recent 38% (posted June 3)
Yup. More freefall.
Not “inevitable” holding the bounce better than I would have expected.
Jragon, I loathe Joe Biden. Of all the legitimate contenders, only Gabbard ranks lower on my list of whom I’d like to see be the nominee. (By “legitimate contenders” I mean people who have served in Congress or as governor of a state; this doesn’t include Buttigieg but even he would rank slightly higher than Biden for me.) But refusing to vote for him in the general election is the kind of narcissistic tantrum I don’t have time for. Although mathematically, voting third party or refusing to vote is actually only half as bad as voting for Trump, ethically speaking, a progressive refusing to vote for Biden in the general is just absolutely inexcusable.
DSeid, you have said repeatedly that Edwards came in second in Iowa despite his “love child” scandal. But that didn’t sound right to me: I remember not hearing anything about it until after the primary season was well over, despite following political news very closely as I do today. Per Wikipedia, it hit the National Enquirer the month before the caucuses, but not the mainstream media until the summer of 2008.
So I guess it comes down to how many people read the Enquirer, and put stock in their claims (which are, clearly, sometimes true). It apparently didn’t have much impact on the caucus I went to witness (living in northern Missouri at the time), where Edwards dominated, Hillary won a solid contingent of mostly older women, Biden got one caucuser who had to re-caucus with one of the other two groups, and Obama got literally zilch, even in the first round–out of probably 100 total caucusgoers. (So imagine my surprise after leaving the caucus and hearing on the radio that he was the winner statewide!)
Or CNN/SSRS, from 28 to 39 to 32.
Or Quinnipiac, from 29 to 38, and already down to 35 3 weeks ago.
Or Monmouth, that only had him going from 27 to 33 in the first place.
And nice cherry-picking of that Morning Consult ‘before’ number, btw. I had to scroll all the way back to January to find it. They poll weekly.
Whatever Biden’s smoking, I want some - and he really needs to lay off the good stuff. Because Mitch McConnell was Senate Republican Leader for a full decade before Trump became President, and if anyone can see a big difference in his behavior between 2016 or 2013 or even 2007 and now, I’d sure like it pointed out, because I’m not seeing it.
Mayor Pete, in January:
I can understand why Joe Biden doesn’t see it this way. He spent most of his adult life - 34 years of it - in the pre-Mitch Senate, one where collegiality dominated. It’s not too hard to understand why he has a hard time getting his head around the realization that it doesn’t work that way anymore - and not just during the era of Trump, but during the previous decade as well.
There is no ‘back’ to go to anymore. It’s gone. Whether or not Trump is an aberration, Mitch McConnell is the same yesterday, today, and [del]forever[/del]* likely until he retires. Going back to an old normal where he can stand the Senate on his head with just 40 of his GOP colleagues (2010 says hi) just returns us to the era of Presidential helplessness that lasted for most of Obama’s Presidency. There’s little point in winning the White House under those circumstances.
*With apologies to the unknown writer of the Book of Hebrews. Sorry, guy, just couldn’t resist.
It’s headlines like these that worry me about Biden. Not that your average Iowa caucus-goer or voter reads Politico religiously, but I worry that Biden’s stick-and-move campaign tactics just send the wrong message, and worse, potentially reinforce perceptions about what is one of his inherent weaknesses: his age.
I suspect one reason that Buttigieg has surged is that he is young and vibrant, and he is also taking more moderate positions, which naturally positions him in particular to pick up whatever support Biden loses.