It is, and AFAICT it’s gone from her Twitter feed. Never seen her delete a tweet before.
‘Upthread’ is 378 posts worth, so much as I’d love to take it seriously, I can’t until I read it, and damned if I’m searching through all your posts to find a link. (Are you sure they were talking about general election polling? Makes a big difference.)
Meaningful movement on climate change is really only one of the goals, even if it is the one that matters most to you. I am sure “we” (not just you and me) could have long debates over which is most critical but losing the Senate with Trump still in place is much worse than losing the Senate with the presidency in place.
The 538 I know of is about how the polling in primaries are fairly predictive even early on.
Another take by Nate Cohn in NYT’s Upshot. Basic premise that if history applied we’d be considering Biden “inevitable” but history may not be so predictive anymore. The times have changed.
Meanwhile this may be the graph RTFirefly had seen.
This is the best thing about Biden’s candidacy, how it upsets Trump. I said some time ago in some post here somewhere that my ideal campaign would have Biden withdraw/suspend his campaign right before Iowa for “health reasons” but pledge to campaign against Trump for as long as he could. Then I’d like to see him do one or two high visibility rallies each week in Rust Belt states, then introduce the eventual nominee at said rallies.
In fact, I’d love to see joint Biden-Sanders rallies in Madison, WI, Ann Arbor, MI and some other cities.
If there is anything I have learned from Pelosi, the more the GOP and trump is scared or trying to blacken the name of a Dem, the more we need that candidate.
I don’t know. They did that with Hillary. Did we “need” that candidate?
No, you’re right–and now that I think of it, Nate Silver has talked about how shaky “trial heat” polling is. I’ll Emily Latella this one–mea culpa. :o
I do believe Biden has the best chance of unseating Trump but he is not my preferred candidate at all. Therefore my ideal campaign would have Biden win the presidency in a ticket featuring one of the younger democratic candidates so the day after the inauguration he says his job is done, resigns and hops on the Amtrak back to Delaware!
I think Pelosi is a savvier politician, and she understands human psychology better than Biden. Pelosi had to fight for her position at the top of the political hill, which involved a much more complex calculus and a lot more political acumen than what Biden has ever had to employ. Biden is where he is today because…Obama needed Pennsylvania. No disrespect to Biden - any guy who can win a statewide office for decades has some political smarts, but Biden ain’t Pelosi.
asahi,
Perhaps so, but Biden is taking a Pelosi like approach to his campaign - steady and thorough. In the Dem debates, Biden will just continue to pound Trump. The media will amplify it and that will drive Trump further into frenzy. As Trump continues to descend in head-to-head poles with Biden, he may unravel completely. That would leave poor Pence.
That’s what Clinton did last time, remember? All it did was to get his supporters to pump their fists and yell “That’s gettin’ 'em, Trump!”
Yes. Hillary was 1000X better than trump.
And she was better than the other two actual candidates running at that time, altho true Sanders would have been interesting.
Not true. The 538 analysis was that she did herself quite a bit of good in the debates. She was just starting from a weaker position than most people realized (538 being the exception, giving her only a 60-70 percent chance to win throughout the fall).
If a few people in each Rust Belt precinct had happened to stay home and a few others had gone out to vote instead of blowing it off, it would be fair to say Hillary had saved her candidacy—and the country—by performing strongly in the debates.
That was indeed the graph that Edwards-Levy had intended, since a very similar tweet is up today with exactly that graph. My WAG is that she accidentally included the wrong graph with her original tweet.
Anyway, that seems to be the state of knowledge on the subject: primary polling has predictive power surprisingly early on, but general election polling, not more than 300 days out, i.e. next January.
What’s working against Trump in 2020 is that we will have had 4 years to experience Trump. In 2016, the American public could imagine what Trump would be like, and their imagination was free to go wherever it wanted.
At the same time, his weakness is his strength. People know what they’re getting with President Trump. They know less about President Biden, although maybe being Vice President is almost the same thing?
I have never seen “The Apprentice”, but I assume on that show he didn’t act the way he has in the presidency (what Bill Maher terms being a “whiny little bitch”).
like most “reality” shows The Apprentice was pretty much as scripted as a sitcom or a doctor/lawyer/cop/etc. 1 hour drama. Trump was not really picking who stayed or got fired and who won the show.
Sure. That’s why I say I picture him acting in some sort of “strong, competent executive” type way, that could have led people to imagine him being an effective president. But of course the reality has been quite different.
I would quibble with your broad pronouncement, though, as a fan of certain reality competitions (Survivor, Project Runway, SYTYCD). Hosts (like Trump) are certainly engaging in a scripted show. But the competitors are not acting. There is just not plausibly a large reservoir of unknown virtuoso actors out there who are content to use their skills to project absolute verisimilitude for a few episodes of a TV show before returning to anonymity. (Watch a few low budget movies, and you will get a good sense of how rare it is to find that level of acting talent.)
And more of the same now on 538.
In short, it’s pretty clear that Biden is in a dominant position. He would have to look pretty damn bad in the debates - like Rick Perry bad - for him to get taken down a notch.