Just how badly is downtown San Francisco doing?

Interesting perspective on the idea that rampant theft is responsible for retail closures in places like downtown San Francisco; the author posits that it’s been exaggerated and may simply reflect poor management decisions:

The alleged crime epidemic in places like San Francisco causing stores to flee may actually just be bad management, investment bank suggests (msn.com)

Applies here in L.A., too.

A new IKEA, of all stores, just opened in downtown SF. I hope it succeeds.

The McDonalds in the Financial District has shut down after 29 years.

The fast food restaurant at 235 Front St. in the Financial District could not bounce back from pandemic-related stresses, including vacant office spaces and dwindling convention traffic

No parking, no drive-thru. Kiss of death for fast food in anything other than a heavy foot-traffic driven business/tourist area. I’m surprised they even lasted through the pandemic. The walk-in only Starbucks in my little town died a few years ago - not enough foot traffic to make the profits worthwhile.

Not much chance of roving gangs of thieves having much effect. The IKEA here is built such that once you enter to shop (entrance is the top floor), getting back out requires finding a path through a maze of aisles with poorly marked stairs to the floor below. No quick dash in, dash out.

Having been in several IKEAs in several states, they’re all designed that way. You can quick-in / quick out if you know the layout and aren’t going too far back into the interior of what’s a really, really big box. The fact the warehousy area of flat pack stuff that’s too big to hand carry acts as a barrier just upstream of the cash registers and exits is probably not an accident.

A “smash and grab” style speed-raid won’t work too well there.

I think that precisely describes the financial district of San Francisco.

Yes, indeed. Once upon a time. But not viable once the pandemic/remote work cut that substantially. It’s not San Francisco-specific, it is big city downtowns-everywhere specific.

This is mostly a GOP scare tactic, to show “crime is out of control due to thos elibruls, elect us, and we will stop it!”

It seems like that article is looking at nationwide stats for theft. That may not reflect what’s going on in the specific stores in downtown SF. Those stores might have both higher than normal theft and lower than normal sales from reduced foot traffic. Perhaps they could be profitable with just one of those negative effects, but the combined effects may make the stores unprofitable. Since both high crime and low foot traffic are more problems with the area rather than the store, it’s not necessarily a bad decision to close the stores rather than try to make them profitable.

The other mistake it makes is that it assumes reported thefts have a relationship with actual thefts. But if the police do nothing with reports, then probably few thefts will be reported. Reports that inevitably go into the circular file aren’t worth making.

Any given national retailer certainly has “shrinkage” stats per store. Which they are under no obligation to share with anyone, and certainly not with the news media.

They may or may not know how much is under-delivery, employee theft, employee “discounts” to friends and family, ordinary random solo shoplifting, organized shoplifting, or flash-mob grab (and maybe smash).

But they can sure figure out which stores, if any, have an especial problem overall. Even if the outsized part of the problem is entirely internal to the store’s workers and managers, closing the store may be the most cost-effective way to clean that house.

I lived in an area of Little Rock for a number of years that was subject to a lot of petty property crimes. The last time my car was broken into I was just grateful they didn’t smash my windows and I didn’t bother calling the police. Even gunshots no longer phased me and I wouldn’t call them in unless the shots were practically on my doorstep.

Prominent S.F. developer and two others charged with bribery in widening corruption scandal

https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/sf-corruption-scandal-sia-tahbazof-18334456.php

Not surprising.

The city is hosting the APEC summit this week and is taking the opportunity to clean up beforehand. The New York Times says, “Local leaders hope the APEC conference will be just the catalyst that San Francisco needs to shake off its pandemic doldrums. At the very least, the past few weeks have shown that the city can clean up well.”

Yes:

But after the APEC summit is over

This is crazy: spend $100 million to clean up San Francisco for some foreign politicians–and after they have left to let it go back to the usual garbage.

In the first nine months of 2023, the northern California city saw 692 people die of overdoses, more than in the entire year of 2022, according to new data reported by the city’s medical examiner. The city is on track to see more than 800 deaths this year, topping its highest year ever, 2020, when it saw 720.

Partial thanks to the Sacklers for that stat.

Here is the last Mark Rober glitterbomb video. Also an accidental documentary on car break-ins in SF.