Just what are international trade deals?

We often hear in the news about international trade deals, with various countries negotiating about oil, steel, soybeans, manufactured products, and other commodities. Now, I know the computer-game version of how that works: Catherine the Great sits down with Gandhi, and offers saltpeter, gems, and 10 gold per turn in exchange for oil.

But that’s obviously not the way it works in the real world. In the real world, it’s mostly not governments buying or selling products (and when governments do buy products, they’re probably under political pressure to buy from domestic suppliers, anyway). If Wal-Mart buys a bunch of T-shirts from a Chinese clothing manufacturer, that’s a deal between Wal-Mart and that other company, not a deal between the US and China. And whatever the US and China do decide, it’s not going to be binding on Wal-Mart and that Chinese company.

Obviously the governments do have some things they can do that are binding on the companies, like tariffs. But those are considered an extreme measure, not part of the typical international trade agreement. So just what is in the typical trade agreement?

I think most of the so-called trade deals are about reducing or changing tariffs on goods or eliminating barriers to entry (like regulations whose main purpose is to protect domestic industries), not about how many X-type widgets country A promises to buy from country B. In that latter case, that might be used as a metric to see if the reduced barriers are working.

Here’s the text of a trade deal:

It’s not the easiest thing to read, but if you skim it, you get the idea. For example, article 2.11 states that Singapore will allow for the importation of chewing gum. It does not require Singaporeans to buy a certain amount of chewing gum; that’s up to market forces.

There’s also a lot of work to make sure that each party to a trade agreement is just speaking the same language as the other party: defining what a particular good is, how various measures are calculated, and so on.

Unless we’re talking about arms or purchases by the government, most countries can’t guarantee the purchase of a specific amount of a product. China probably can, but not most liberal, Western Democracies.

Right, which illustrates the OP’s point about Queen Elizabeth making a trade deal with Cleopatra to offer one gem for ten wheat for 20 years isn’t what non-Civ trade deals are about. So when we hear things about better trade deals reducing our trade deficit with someone, it doesn’t quite work that way, since generally the market itself figures out the balance of trade between countries, as opposed to trade deals doing that.

Yes. And furthermore, the overall trade balance relies more on the gap between domestic saving and domestic investment than on the level of tariffs.

Pithy explanation for the mathematically inclined: Saving-investment balance - Wikipedia

More detailed explanation: it’s a bit of a slog: Current Account = Savings - Investment - Economics Help

My attempt: if we are buying more machines (investing) than the difference between our income and consumption (savings), the money has to come from somewhere. That would be foreign lending. So foreigners are buying more of our bonds (or other financial assets) than they are selling. If they are buying excess bonds, they have to be selling us something else - that would be their goods.

And if foreigners are selling us more goods than they are buying, that’s a trade deficit. Trade deficits and the savings-investment gap are twins.

So if you want to fix a trade deficit really quickly, just collapse investment hard. That’s what happens during demand-driven recessions. Bonus question: why do we care about trade deficits again?

A trade deal between Queen Elizabeth and Cleopatra wold be problematic for a different reason. :smiley:

There’s nothing extreme about tariffs. They are relatively routine in international trade. One of the items in trade agreements is setting an agreed upon level or elimination of tariffs. That reduces the uncertainty of both sides setting their tariffs unilaterally.

Cite

Average tariffs/customs cuties between the US and EU are relatively low at about 2%.

Taxing international trade isn’t just for trade wars.

[QUOTE=<snip>
My attempt: if we are buying more machines (investing) than the difference between our income and consumption (savings), the money has to come from somewhere. That would be foreign lending. So foreigners are buying more of our bonds (or other financial assets) than they are selling. If they are buying excess bonds, they have to be selling us something else - that would be their goods.

And if foreigners are selling us more goods than they are buying, that’s a trade deficit. Trade deficits and the savings-investment gap are twins.
<snip>[/QUOTE]

If I may be permitted a question without reading the links, can you more fully explain the concept of a savings-investment gap? I am not an economist. I note that at least in the US the difference between income and consumption has always been quite small. Most of our investment comes from growth in the money supply (I think). That is, in modern days the Fed prints more $-in various creative ways. We have been fortunate these last few years that such a move hasn’t sparked inflation, but that is not my interest here. I would like to understand better why the savings-investment gap is important. I will leave off the comment about investment shortfalls have to be made up from foreign lending.

You might be surprised. For instance, the U.S. has pressured Japan into accepting imported rice; the Japanese government purchases a certain quota of imported rice (to prop up the domestic rice industry) and keeps it in a warehouse, sometimes selling some off for use as livestock feed.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2008/05/20/japans-rice-stockpiles-could-ease-food-crisis

There’s several components to trade deals, of increasing complexity depending on the deal and the countries who negotiated them. I’ll try to summarise some of the common components. Not all trade deals have all of these, and some may have other components.

The starting point for most trade deals, historically, has been an agreement to lower tariffs reciprocally, or even eliminate them.

While tariffs raise money for governments, they increase prices that the government’s own citizens pay for imported goods. They also hinder market access for companies in country A who want to sell in country B, and vice versa. So lowering tariffs is usually what starts negotiations. Those can be reciprocal reductions on tariffs, item by item, or just across the board reductions.

But wait: what if the widget company in country A operates its factory in country C, which is not part of the trade deal, and then brings the widgets back to A, and then sells them in country B? That gives country C some of the benefit of the deal, even tho’ C is not a party.

To avoid giving the factory in C the benefit of the lowered tariff, the deal has to include country of origin requirements.

That can get complicated, depending on the sector. For agricultural products, it’s pretty easy - the cow or wheat or whatever had to be grown in B to get low tariffs from A.

But what about manufactured goods? What if the widget factory in B got most of its raw materials from D, some finished components from E, and then put them together in B? When it ships the finished product from B to sell in A, does that product qualify for low tariffs from A?

Most deals have quotas on how much foreign material is allowed in the finished product to qualify as a product from B. What proportions are needed for this issue is very thorny, and can vary from sector to sector and type of product.

(As a factual aside, I understand this is one of the issues the US is raising in the NAFTA negotiations, to require a greater proportion of made-in-Canada components in cars made in Canada, to be eligible for the low tariff coming into the States. If Canadian car manufacturers can’t find a domestic source for components to meet that quota, they’ll have to import more components from the US (instead of Europe or China), incorporate the US-made components into their products, and then ship the finished product back to the US for the low tariff. Whether that’s a fair concern or not I don’t know, and seems more GD. )

And then there’s internal trade barriers. What if country A says that all beef sold to the consumer has to have the country of origin prominently displayed on the package, along with the country’s flag? Even if the beef is admitted on the low tariff, that type of packaging requirement is a not-so-subtle signal to the consumers in A to “Buy beef from A and support our A farmers!” If the labelling doesn’t serve a legitimate consumer protection purpose, it’s likely an internal barrier.

Or the BC wine example, currently in dispute: BC says only BC wine can be sold in supermarkets. Foreign wine can only be sold in the liquor stores. The US says that’s an internal trade barrier, since it makes it easier to buy BC wine.

Then there can be agreements on the names of products. For instance under NAFTA, only corn whiskey from the US can be marketed as “bourbon” in the three NAFTA countries, “tequila” has to come from Mexico, and “Canadian rye whiskey” has to come from Canada (subject again to content source rules).

Then there’s anti-dumping rules. If an industry in B is getting some of its components cheaply because of government subsidies and then sells them in A, that’s considered an unfair dumping because it drives A’s industries in that sector out of business. So if a country is dumping a particular product into A’s markets, the agreement may allow A to impose specific counter-vailing tariffs on that product from B, to raise the price of that product in A’s markets.

(Again a factual aside: Canada’s softwood lumber industry is often accused of dumping softwood lumber into the US, unfairly competing against US lumber companies. The Canadian response is usually a variant of “Have you seen our forests in BC? We have a huge supply so we can produce it at a low price!” Then the US industry says, “Yeah, but that’s Crown land and the BC government is giving you a sweetheart deal on stumpage fees, so it’s dumping!” And the BC industry says “Any US company can come up and buy logging rights at the same price!” And the US companies say something else, and the dance goes on. Who’s right? Dunno. GD territory.)

Another element in some trade deals is that a country has to treat the businesses of the other country the same. If a shoe company from B opens a shoe factory in A, country A can’t favour shoe factories owned by A’s citizens over the B company. Countries can be quite inventive in favouring their own industries, like a requirement that the armed forces of A must buy their boots from companies owned by A citizens, or more restrictive labour standards and financing rules on the B shoe factory, or even nationalising the B shoe factory and selling it to the A shoe company. Those would normally all be breaches of a trade agreement. Country A has to treat foreign investment from B the same as investors from A.

Another issue may be labour standards or environmental standards. What if one country has significantly lower wages and laxer environmental standards? That could give the industries from that country a major cost of production advantage, enabling it to sell its products at a significantly lower price in the other country. This one is a harder issue, because things like average wages in different countries aren’t necessarily set by the government. They’re just naturally lower in some economies. This was a major issue in NAFTA, since Mexico’s wages and environmental standards were much lower than in Canada and the US , which were much closer to each other. They dealt with those issues with a couple of side protocols. Don’t know how successful that’s been. Again, GD.

So it gets complicated. What if A is convinced B is breaching the rules? Almost every trade deal has a dispute-resolution mechanism, usually a type of arbitration, before a panel of trade experts drawn from both countries.

Country A files a detailed complaint against B. B responds. The trade panel makes a ruling. If it finds the complaint valid, the remedy can vary depending on the trade agreement. Under some agreements, the panel may be able to order B to stop the practice. Or, it may authorise A to impose counter-vailing tariffs, targetting B’s industry which is in breach. Depends on the dispute-resolution mechanism. And there may be an appeal to an appeal board. And so on.

Side comment: it seems like the dispute-resolution panels are a big sticking point for the US in the current NAFTA talks, with the US saying they should be eliminated or watered-down, and Mexico and Canada saying the dispute-resolution process is at the heart of the deal. What’s the point of rules if there’s no way to enforce them? Again, GD.

So, that’s my summary of what is meant by “rules-based trade agreements”. Feel free to ask follow-up questions.

It sounds, from that, like a certain level of governmental interference in the international markets is the default, and that trade deals typically bilaterally reduce that interference.

There have been occasions where a trade agreement specifies the amount of a good allowed to be sold. For instance the Voluntary Export Restraint program from 1981-1994 placed restrictions on the amount of Japanese cars that could be sold in the US.

So how does that work? If five different Japanese car companies all want to sell in the US, how do they decide which one gets what share of the quota?

The trade in certain goods would be subject to export visas (not exactly clear how they are allocated). I believe the WTO is now strongly against these measures, so I believe they are rare now.

Or multilaterally, in the case of NAFTA and TPP.

That is certainly how proponents of such deals characterise them, at least here in Canada.

Opponents tend to criticise them because they see a reduction in national sovereignty. Again, GD material.

My recollection from the debate on the Canada-US FTA in the 1980s, which preceded NAFTA, was that the two main goals of the Canadian government were open access to the US market, and the dispute resolution mechanism.

Prior to the FTA, Canada was the only G7 country that didn’t have guaranteed access to a market of over 100 million people. The Europeans had the EU, the US and Japan both had their own domestic markets. Canada’s domestic market was 30 million Canadians. Guaranteed access to the US market helped Canadian industries to scale up.

The dispute-resolution mechanism was important to stop politically motivated trade barriers in the US. That’s what the “rules-based” language means. Both sides have the assurance that market access won’t be affected for political purposes. If one country breaks the rules, the other can take it to the dispute-resolution process. Rules-based, not political-based.

Of course, there’s a GD there - the supporters of the national sovereignty argument tend to say that their government should be able to impose trade or market restrictions for political reasons.