On the contrary. I have seen the polls. Trump is under 40% in almost all states, even ones he’s “Winning.”
He needs to hold ALL of Mitt Romney’s states (he isn’t) and flip several big ones besides (he probably can’t). Trump needs EVERY break to go his way.
Huh? No idea what you’re talking about. According to 538’s rollup estimate Trump is above 40% in most states. If you don’t believe me, just look it up:
“Probably” is a lot closer than you think. Load up Sam Wang’s projection model. If you add two points to Trump, he just barely is the favourite to win the election. Add three, and he wins very likely.
People seem unwilling to accept something that is objectively true, based on all available evidence and well-tested, empirical observation of that evidence; Trump has a very good chance of winning.
Sure, if you held the election today, he’d have to exceed his overall expectation by two to three percent, and he’d win.
That doesn’t strike me as being a huge break.
It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
Remember, even if Trump loses, he’ll make Billions off of this… enough for all of his kids to build mansions in Newport and Still have 6 generations of ‘Old Money’ trust funds each.
If we don’t flip the HoR AND the Senate, and flip them BIG, 25% will seem like a pipe dream.
And people I work with think he’ll win in a landslide over Hillary.
What I find amusing is that there are people ripping into Kaine because he speaks Spanish. Some Republicans are referring to him/referencing “Dora the Explorer” because of it.
I suppose one could be forgiven for thinking that, despite Trump’s obvious bond with the Hispanics, where he says he’ll do very well, others in the party feel the need to keep the racist/xenophobic door open for possible later usage.
That’s stupid. If anything, they should reference “Go, Diego, Go!” Can’t people even hate right these days?
Often, but not always. GWB picked Dick Cheney because he knew he needed help, and Reagan’s pick of Bush 41 was quite solid given Bush’s resume. But then there’s Quayle and Palin, and while I love Paul Ryan, I don’t think Paul Ryan was ready to be President in 2012. He was the “exciting” pick while barely crossing the plausibilty threshold.
It’s kind of hilarious reading the comments on that. All of these right-wing reprobates complaining about Kaine speaking Spanish instead of English while murdering English like it killed their favorite pet…
25% is what liberals should get IF they control everything. If a Democratic Presidential candidate is running around promising to give liberals most of what they want, that’s called the Walter Mondale campaign.
Clinton’s selection of Kaine tells me that the move back to the center has begun in earnest.
Ideally, a Presidential candidate wants to be able to pick a VP with an eye to who will work well in their administration not who will help them win the election. If your presidential campaign is at a point where you need a vice presidential pick then you’re in trouble.
No it isn’t. It’s only a tossup if you ignore the Electoral College.
Seems like a good pick. Appeals to those that want competency, “qualified”, white males, Spanish speakers, comes from a swing state, etc. to balance out Hillary.
Warren would put two women of roughly the same age on the ticket and risk a senate seat. Castro could turn out the Hispanic vote, but the kid hasn’t done much. As pointed out upthread, blacks are already in Hillary’s camp so Booker isn’t such a critical draw.
The hardcore Bern supporters are either going to hold their nose and vote for Hillary, go third party protest or not vote. The rest of the Bernie supporters already had Hillary as plan B, or they will hold their nose to keep Trump away from the nuclear codes. I’m not convinced that the hardcore Bernie supporters that will actually turn out and vote are all that great in number and probably those that Kaine will win over is a larger number.
I hope that the GOP keep up the Dora the Explorer jibes. That appeals to the xenophobic ignorant white male base that are already in camp Trump, and does nothing but help turn out the vote with the Spanish speaking population.
I don’t know what Michael Moore’s record is as a prognosticator, but he disagrees with you.
Michael Moore, like most partisan flamethrowers, does better when the party that is most against him is in power. No one cares what Michael Moore has to say when he’s attacking Democrats. But put a Trump or Bush in the WH and Moore’s going to be raking in the $$$$$.
I still don’t see any evidence that Clinton isn’t taking Trump seriously. I’m sure she and her staff is taking him more seriously than some of his supporters.
I don’t doubt she’s taking him seriously, but her campaign strategy is garbage. Picking Kaine helps her because it demonstrates that she can govern, but as a candidate she’s still terrible. Tens of millions spent trying to tell people what they already knew about Trump.
You have to attack him at his strength: he’s not a straight shooter, he’s as much of a liar as everyone. Bluntness is not necessarily truthfulness.
This is what most people miss.
Factoring that in makes a big difference. Here’s an interactive map that’s updated daily. As you can see, Clinton is WAY ahead.
Holy Shit! I totally agree with adaher and think this is an excellent, astute post.
Heavens!
You are absolutely wrong, based on responses from and discussions with members of my wife’s family. That Kaine speaks Spanish, albeit with a jarringly American accent, makes it easier for Hispanics to feel a connection with him. It makes a difference, and will definitely help Hillary …as much as any VP pick can help a presidential nominee.
To bring up the fact that Kaine was on Obama’s short list in 2008, according to one source, Kaine was actually the pick, but the Russo-Georgian conflict changed Obama’s mind and he felt he needed someone with more foreign policy chops:
Now I figure most of you don’t read the Corner, but you might be pleasantly surprised at how positive many National Review writers are about Tim Kaine: