The Scottish National Party won 48 seats in Westminster in the last General Election. Labour party won 7.
Labour may win the next election because the Conservative vote collapses and the northern Red Wall seats are recaptured. But…without winning some seats in Scotland from the SNP, the longer term success of Labour is far from assured. Moreover the SNP will persist in campaigning for an Independent Scotland and they see the seats they win in Westminster as a vote for Independence.
Brown’s report on the reform of the House of Lords also deals will also increase the devolution of power to the Scottish Parliament, Wales and UK regions as well as making the Lords more representative. It gives Labour a strong card to play to win Scottish voters.
This sounds like a cunning plan to me, makes political sense if you want to win elections.
Whether it is worth the cost in political capital in the first term of a new administration at a time when the country is facing an acute economic crisis. That is another question. The much larger electorate in England will have little interest in this issue.
Starmer is releasing policy statements very sparingly right now. The freedom of movement issue is aimed at the Brexit tendency both inside and outside his party. This constitutional House of Lords reform is aimed at the SNP. Very difficult for the Conservatives or the SNP to attack these policies.
He is laying a couple of safe cards early in the poker game. The big important policies will come later.
I will be interested to hear whether he will have a plan for Nationalisation. The privatisation of the water utilities and the railways have pretty much failed. The Water utilities have become dominated by foreign owned cartels and several rail franchises have failed. But there will be a price tag associated with taking them into public ownership and there are other priorities.
Labour, like the Conservatives, can easily be drawn towards their own set of idealogical preoccupations. It will be interesting to see if Starmer can keep this tendency under control.
Right now the country is facing a lot of strikes over pay and the labour unions are confronting to government. The Conservatives will claim Labour are in the pocket of the Unions. Starmer has to distance the party from this suggestion, but still keep his left wing from breaking ranks.
There is a lot of history here. Many echoes of the ‘Winter of Discontent’ drama of the late 70’s. Starmer would rather the image be of the heady optimism that came with Blair’s New Labour of the late 90’s which was victorious over a deadbeat Conservative party that had been in power for far too long.
At some point Starmer has to make a big statement about his vision for the country and present it with the backing of a united party. But now is not the time, it has to be closer to the general election which will be no later than January 2025.
A lot can happen in two years.