Wouldn’t it be waaaay cheaper for China to ship oil from the nearby Persian Gulf states than to have to send it around the horn? People who oppose the pipeline always bring this up, but it doesn’t smell right.
You seem to be confusing the XL pipeline which will move Alberta bitumen/oil to American gulf state refineries with the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline which would see a shipping terminal be built in Kitimat BC for delivery of Alberta bitumen/oil to the Pacific Rim (i.e China)
They maintain that the oil going to the gulf is destined for China, so it won’t help us become independent.
Who’s “they?”
People who oppose the pipeline.
The only comment I found by any opposition leader that mentions China was by Massachusetts Democratic Senate candidate Edward Markey.
That’s not at all the same thing as saying we’re shipping the oil to China, though. The oil is designed for export and has to go somewhere. Wherever it goes may free up other oil to go to China. Oil is a fungible commodity.
Lots of people saying that the alternative would be a line west, as Grey says, but they’re using that as an argument for the Keystone pipeline.
Stan, I’m pretty sure you’re hearing this wrong. And for sure opponents don’t “always bring this up.”
For example, numerous posters in this Fark thread:
http://www.fark.com/comments/7683696/Six-things-you-need-to-know-about-Arkansas-oil-spill
“oil will be sent to China” over and over again. Like they all got a talking point from somewhere. 
I’m not sure you should rely on Fark for informed discussion of international energy policy.
I actually read Fark. Have for years. It’s good entertainment.
But you’re admitting you don’t have a case. Or a clue.
Oh gee, an oil pipeline that might possibly contain pollutants going through precious Massachusetts. It’s OK when its Alaska.
The Keystone Pipeline wouldn’t go anywhere near Massachusetts. Whether you agree with Markey or not, I don’t think you can just accuse him of NIMBYism.
Have you told them the oil comes from Canada and so wont make the US energy independent anyway?
The USA imports oil. It produces nowhere near enough for domestic consumption. I seriously seriously doubt any is exported to China or will be.
I agree, the OP’s source(s) likely confuse the two pipelines. Basically, if the USA does not want our oil, I’m sure China will. They are in fact trying to buy up the Tar Sands extraction companies.
Alberta loses about $20/barrel from the world price since it is so difficult to export - usually by train tanker cars or a small pipeline. The Tar Sands have grown tremendously and Alberta does not have the refinery capacity; meanwhile Texas has to import oil to feed its refineries.
Instead of going off on policy tangents - this being GQ, guys - let me say that the answer to your question is very probably no.
Per unit per mile shipping costs by sea for bulk cargo are as a rule reasonably trivial. VLCC’s and ULCC’s* carry so much at a time so efficiently that the shipping cost whether from the Persian Gulf to China or from the Gulf of Mexico to China is not really a big deal.
*Very Large Crude Carrier and Ultra Large Crude Carrier, popularly “supertankers”
But the fact that the Gulf Coast refineries import oil to process, and the USA is a significant importer of oil, is probably more of a deciding factor. Plus, IIRC, the USA does not have a significant overcapacity of refineries, so whatever the refineries produce likely is mostly for the domestic market.
Unless China is willing to pay a helluva premium to ship extra distances, the domestic market will take it all.
You are aware the US is one of the largest oil exporters as well right?
All those refineries will take as much oil in as they can but they have no obligation to sell it in the US. They sell to the highest bidder. If Europe or China is paying more it’s going to get shipped there instead. The oil companies don’t care if the US could use the oil, they want maximum value.
The Keystone pipeline will produce jobs and will help the oil companies make more money. For everyday Americans it’s not going to change much. If China is willing to pay more for it delivered, it will go there instead. China isn’t the most likely option for it but whoever pays the most gets it.
The USA is currently a net importer of crude oil and a net exporter of refined products (gasoline, diesel, naptha, asphalt, kerosene, etc.).
Refineries, as I understand it, benefit tremendously from economies of scale, and benefit from a highly trained workforce. As a result, a lot of smaller countries don’t necessarily have a refinery and import some or all finished products. However, if you are a large market, it makes more sense to build a refinery and import raw crude. Then you keep all the value-added processes and the money they bring in.
There is no such premium. See my post.