I just came in here to post that!
I just came in to correct it . . .
Same.
There’s an inner circle of several hundred or several thousand folks who do quite well from the current arrangements. Who exactly is the boss (or figurehead) doesn’t matter nearly as much to them as perpetuating the system does. And they are the ONLY people with decision-making power. The other umpteen million NK resident-slaves don’t have a role other than victim. Their interests can be safely ignored when predicting what will happen.
We see (much) milder versions of the *inner-circle-not-letting-go * scenario today in the Egytian & Turkish mililtary & the various hangers-on in Iran such as the Revolutionary Guards. And in the Russian siloviki.
These inner-circle folks have patriotism to a system, not a country. And they are very conservative, in the *got a lot more to lose than gain from any changes *sense of the word.
Contrast that situation with the one in Iraq or Afghanistan today with multiple distinct ethnically-centered power groups engaged in a multi-way grab for the spoils. We’re starting to see the same thing in Libya & will probably see it when (not if) Assad falls in Syria. What we *can *say with near certainty is that this will *not *be the way NK plays out.
The only way the current NK regime falls apart is if somebody in the second rank of the inner circle sees his big opening & tries to muscle his way to the top table, knocking out the current top ranks on the way by. That could devolve into an internal multi-faction coup & counter coup. Which could easily have direct military side effects into SK or China. As long as there’s somebody at the top table with the ability to manage the hot heads they can keep this system going through several regime changes. Darn good bet that’s their goal.
One major wildcard:
Once a refugee flood or mass military defection sets in, the then-sitting regime will be forced to turn the remaining loyalist military against the flood. Which will either succeed adequately or fail spectacularly. A failure here is probably the *most *likely way the whole house of cards collapses. It’s certainly the way the regime should fear most. Therefore it’ll be the way they take strong steps to pre-empt. Watch for it. NK doesn’t have major population centers with good physical connectivity (roads, rivers, etc) to SK or China. Which works to the regime’s advantage.
The Chinese are in a deep crack here, and we have to hope their top leadership has its adult underroos on & is thinking past the end of its nationalist propaganda nose. They too can push this thing over the edge in a bad way, either on purpose or inadvertantly.
If the NK regime loses control, NK’s territory ends up in 1 of 3 modes: 1) a new province of China, 2) a new province of SK, or 3) an occupied protectorate of the UN managed by (read “fed & clothed by”) the 5 powers of the now-irrelevant 6-power talks. Sorta like West Germany was in 1946.
The worst outcome is #4: A (hopefully containable) war is fought to divide current NK territory more or less permanently into 1 & 2 above.
None of those 4 options is happy from a Chinese point of view. And despite all the jingoistic ranting over on US right wing TV, the Chinese have a legit interest and the practical wherewithal to back up their legit interest. If the USA treats this as something for us to manage unilaterally or with SK + Japan playing Robin to our Batman, that’s probably the best way to provoke the Chinese into doing something worse for all concerned.
Or, put another way, she’s jealous of how the Chinese get to fatten up their dogs. 
The old man has been sick for while. They’ve had succession plans in place for quite some time, and the US, China and South Korea have had plenty of time to work through the various scenarios.
It’s also important to remember that North Korea just did this same thing in 1994.
What will happen is still up in the air, but I think the various worst-case scenarios are unlikely. This just isn’t enough of a surprise to make it easy for everything to go to hell. I also think there is a good best-case scenario. There is a good chance that the regime has seen how market reforms in China have brought in a lot of money without eroding the Party’s hold on power. I doubt they would jump straight into market reforms- it’d be a tough blow to national pride to weather, but there are already small signs of reform and a transition would be an opportunity to allow more reforms while maintaining dignity.
“Quite some time” doesn’t exactly conjure up the idea of barely over a year attempting to install an unknown. That’s what North Korea’s recently deceased dictator was up to.
Not just the US/South Korea, but on the other side, China. It’s actually one of the worst strategic placements imaginable. There is no way to go that will please both sides. . .
Don’t be so sure. The Korean zombification process takes at least a week and involves burial in a large clay pot; when they dig him up, he’ll be not only a shambling horror, but very piquant.
You know they don’t call it kimchee because it’s made out of Kim, right? 
Exactly. North Korea was conceived and evolved in the midst of the tensest of Cold War tensions. It grew up warped and stunted, like a child in a severely abusive household. It’s a manifestation of just about everything bad the Cold War had to offer.
Oh, break out the violins. North Korea is like a defenseless child that gets beaten by both parents! Kim Il Sung must be so misunderstood! Any other country surrounded by powerful neighbors would end up the same way, with pervasive cults of personality and a vast network of gulags and executions!
Only, not so. Kim Il Sung is about as innocent a victim as a child who tortures animals and grows up to be a serial killer. Who do you think started the Korean War? You really think Stalin told Kim to do it? The historical record is now pretty clear that the war was Kim’s idea, as was the whole creation of a national security state with no respect for even tiny shreds of human rights.
North Korea wasn’t a victim of the Cold War, it was a beneficiary. For decades, the incompetent political and economic system of North Korea was the welfare queen of the Communist bloc: aid from the Soviet Union poured in, and Kim excelled at manipulating the Sino-Soviet split to his own advantage. As was stated earlier, North Korea was actually doing pretty well in the 1960s and 1970s, and it was really with the collapse of its Communist sponsors that the country hit the skids.
Neither China, nor the Russians, nor the South Koreans, US, or Japanese compelled, forced, convinced, cajoled, influenced, suggested, or implied that the North Korean regime continue (and some may say accelerate) its police state Juche nonsense after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The Kims chose that on their own, and they are reaping what they have sown: a dysfunctional country that is incapable of survival without substantial food and energy aid. There’s a whole raft of countries that were caught in the middle of superpower politics – from Vietnam to Yugoslavia, Poland to Angola, Thailand to Taiwan. None of them are as screwed up as North Korea, because the North Korean leadership is responsible for the mess on their hands.
Stop trying to make North Korea out like a victim of circumstances. You can’t blame the starvation, the human rights abuses, the proliferation of nuclear technology, the support for terrorism and drug-running, and all that other stuff on historical twists of fate. Blame North Korea for the shape it is in.
Well, let’s agree the average person in NK is a victim, shall we?
The better analogy is that North Korea is like an aggressively crazy panhandler in a crowded subway with a live grenade in his mouth and a sign around his neck reading “give me money or I pull the pin”.
Of the Kims, yes.
Have it your way. It’s definitely a psychologically more satisfying way to see things. But it just doesn’t provide much in terms of direction when it comes to dealing with these guys, which, if we expect them to make moves towards joining the rest of the world, we are going to have to do. We can’t just say “Eh, you guys are crazy and evil. Now, like us and play by our rules!”
Again, understanding is not the same as excusing. Kim Jong Il was a cruel, needlessly aggressive leader who caused untold suffering. But the story of North Korea is more than just the story of one man, no matter how much he would like to deny that. So summing up all of North Korea as “the work of a single crazy guy” doesn’t do policy makers any favors.
I recall the “Chinese wall” terminology, I think the episode was called “Seed”, in which Kincaid discovers a fertility doctor has used his own sperm to impregnate numerous clients but for some reason cannot tell McCoy while he pursues a fraud investigation against the doctor (or the fraud investigation itself is just a pretext to find evidence for a murder case, or something). Kincaid volunteers to put herself behind a “Chinese wall”, through which she cannot reveal, or even hint at, her knowledge to McCoy until he discovers it independently. A judge warns her that “peeking” over that wall puts her license at risk.
I would say that it would be similarly ineffective to say, “Oh, you poor North Korea, how you have been the victim of the Cold War! I don’t like what you have done, but I see now how the United States, the Soviets and China pushed you into becoming a country run by a cult of personality with a human rights record that would make Mao blush! Now that we have embraced the quasi-dependency theory dogma of how North Korea has toiled at the mercy of more powerful countries, now let us treat each other as respected equals!”
I think the version of North Korea that I have laid out – its long record of attempting to manipulate other countries, its broken economy and utter dependence on foreign remittances and aid, and its overriding focus on regime survival above any other issue (mass starvation, political isolation, human rights, etc) is a far, far more useful lens to understand North Korea than comparing them to an abused child.
Finally, I continue to be astonished at the comparison of the DPRK to an abused child. Would you compare other thugs on the world stage to abused children? Maybe Mao? Pol Pot? Stalin? Milosevic? The Janjaweed? Mugabe?
Of the Dear Great Successor, Kim Jong-un
It is (whispered) he might be a wrong ‘un
Finds it all okey-dokey
To slam his bulgoki
To a Hyundai, with passion and longin’!
And the circle begins again. http://kimjongunlookingatthings.tumblr.com/